Weekly Iraq .Xplored report

Weekly Iraq .Xplored report
10 June 2017
Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
10 June 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 2 ACTIVITY MAP .................................................................................................................................................... 3 OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Short term outlook ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Medium to long term outlook............................................................................................................................ 4
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...................................................................................................................................... 5
IS claims suicide attacks in Iraqi Shia provinces ........................................................................................... 5
Iraqi Kurdistan to hold independence referendum in September................................................................. 5
THREAT MATRIX ................................................................................................................................................ 5 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................................................... 6
Mosul ................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Political................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Security ............................................................................................................................................................... 7
Foreign Affairs.................................................................................................................................................... 8
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................... 9
Countrywide Military/Security Situation .......................................................................................................... 9
ACRONYM LIST ................................................................................................................................................ 16 GARDAWORLD INFORMATION SERVICES .............................................................................................. 17 GARDAWORLD.................................................................................................................................................. 17
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader’s own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
10 June 2017
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ACTIVITY MAP

Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
10 June 2017
OUTLOOK
Short term outlook
 The religious month of Ramadan will see security plans implemented across most provinces in Iraq, probably involving increased troop deployments and enhanced security procedures. Busy periods should be expected around daybreak but especially in the evening around sunset. In the morning families will gather for ‘Suhoor’ – the last meal before fasting begins. In the evening families gather for ‘Iftar’ – the breaking of the fast. Markets are usually busy in the evenings as people prepare for the evening gathering and feast. Such gatherings will be attractive targets for Sunni militants, who will continue violence targeting the Shia civilian population throughout the month. It is almost certain a number of high-profile attacks will be attempted during this period, although activity should be broadly within established parameters.
 As the operation in West Mosul continues, there is a heightened risk of high-profile attacks in permissive areas across Iraq including Baghdad, Salah ad Din and Diyala, as IS retains intent to increase sectarian tensions and force a redeployment of ISF resources away from Mosul. This is underlined by recent VBIED attacks in Shia-dominated areas of Baghdad City as well as multiple lower level IEDs, especially in eastern Baghdad. With ethno-sectarian tensions currently heightened in Kirkuk, there is also an increased possibility of high- profile attacks in Kirkuk City, although IS capability to conduct such an attack is assessed as less than in those areas with a majority Sunni demographic. An increase in attacks can also be expected in eastern Anbar, in particular the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, as evidenced by recent high-profile attacks in the region.
 Two SVBIED attacks in Basra province on May 19, and SVIED attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9 exhibit IS retains intent and capability for attacks in the southern provinces. The region remains assessed as non- permissive for IS to significantly escalate operations due to demographics, with the few Sunni militant sympathizers in the region remaining isolated.
 The security footprint and other local factors in the central and southern regions of Iraq, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the sort seen in the north and the west of the country, though the threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province.
Medium to long term outlook
 In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk. It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates.
 Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country. In the long-term, there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS.
 While the Mosul operation has refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant.
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SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
IS claims suicide attacks in Iraqi Shia provinces
Islamic State group (IS) has claimed killing and injuring over 140 Shia Muslims in two suicide attacks carried out in Iraqi Shia provinces. The insurgents claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed 20 people in Babel province, and also a separate suicide attack, also on 9 June, in a car park in central Karbala - the holy Shia city where jihadist attacks are rare.
Iraqi Kurdistan to hold independence referendum in September
The Iraqi Kurdistan Region has decided to hold a referendum on its independence from Baghdad on 25 September this year. The decision reportedly came in a meeting held by Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani with representatives of Kurdish political parties, according to Kurdish press. The autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq includes the provinces of Erbil, Sulymaniyah and Dohuk. Kurdistan’s parliamentary and presidential elections will also be held on 6 November according to reports.
THREAT MATRIX
Region KRG* North** Baghdad Anbar South***
Political
Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Minimal
Terrorism Militancy
Low Low
High-Extreme High Moderate Moderate
Crime K&R
Low Low
High High
Moderate
Moderate
High
Low
High
Moderate Moderate
High High
Moderate
Extreme
Moderate
* ** ***
KRG – Dohuk, Erbil & Sulaymaniyah
North – Nineveh, Salah ad-Din & Diyala
South – Babil, Wasit, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Maysan & Basra
Threat Scale
Low
High
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LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Mosul
Mosul Tactical Update
Strong resistance continues in the few remaining districts under IS control in west Mosul. On June 10 Federal Police Commander Major General Jawdat stated that ISF have fully retaken Zanjili district in northwest Mosul. There was now a major operation to clear the area of mines, IEDs and booby-traps. ISF also continue to aid civilians leaving the area. Progress is slow in neighbouring Shifaa district, as ISF continue to reduce the pocket held by IS and push toward Old Mosul. IS have continued significant offensive operations, including complex attacks against a CTS command post in liberated al-Sihha neighbourhood, and suicide attacks against civilians attempting to flee IS-held areas. IDF and direct fire are also used to target fleeing civilians, and this week IS again utilised IDF with chlorine-filled rounds. This is believed to be the ninth occasion chemical weapons have been used in Mosul, and resulted in 13 civilians killed. In east Mosul, there was evidence that an insurgency that is almost certain to develop is beginning to emerge, as three attacks attributed to IS were recorded. Two incidents involved IS gunmen killing a preacher and a woman in separate attacks in eastern Mosul, whilst another involved the interception and killing of a suicide attacker before he could detonate his explosive vest.
PMU units completed operation ‘Mohammed Rasool Allah II’ in western Nineveh, retaking Ba’aj district in its entirety. After securing border areas and besieging Ba’aj town, PMUs liberated the town unopposed. The border crossing at Tal Safwak was also secured, although PMU forces were attacked by suicide attackers from the Syrian side of the border on June 8. PMU senior official Abu Muhandis stated the PMU now await orders to retake Tal Afar.
IS murdered 163 Iraqis who tried to flee Western Mosul
On June 6, the United Nations said that IS militants had killed over 160 people in Mosul last week in order to prevent them from escaping insurgent-held areas. According to the UN, the bodies of 163 murdered Iraqis littered the streets after IS shot civilians to prevent them from fleeing.
Many from Tal Afar flee to safety of KR-I after PMU-IS clashes
At least 500 families fleeing the IS-held Turkmen town of Tal Afar in western Nineveh have reportedly reached the sanctuary of the Kurdish region on June 6. Iraqi press stated that the 500 people would later be transferred to Hamam Alil camp south of Mosul It was reported that the families were living in dire conditions and a lack of food had forced them to flee.
Unknown gunmen kill IS militants in Tal Afar
Unknown gunmen killed five Islamic State militants in Tal Afar, an enclave which is still under the group’s control west of Mosul, according to a security source. The source said in a press statement that the gunmen, travelling in three pickup trucks, attacked an IS checkpoint in central Tal Afar.
PMUs take Ba’aj near Iraq / Syrian border
As part of the ongoing Popular Mobilisation Unit operation called “Muhammed Rasul Allah” to take remaining areas from IS in northern Iraq, the Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi declared on June 4 that it had captured the key town of Ba’aj near the Iraq-Syria border. The town was also a known hideout of the terrorist group’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and had been a key Islamist militant facilitation node throughout 14 years of war and insurgency.
Political
Iraqi Kurdistan to hold independence referendum in September
The Iraqi Kurdistan Region has decided to hold a referendum on its independence from Baghdad on 25 September this year. The decision reportedly came in a meeting held by Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani with representatives of Kurdish political parties, according to Kurdish press. The autonomous Kurdistan Region
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10 June 2017
in northern Iraq includes the provinces of Erbil, Sulymaniyah and Dohuk. Kurdistan’s parliamentary and presidential elections will also be held on 6 November.
Court issues seven-year jail term for former Iraqi Finance Minister
A criminal court has issued a jail term of seven years for former Iraqi Finance Minister Rafi al-Essawi over the alleged misuse of public funds and corruption, the State Commission of Integrity declared on June 7.
Security
IS claims suicide attacks in Iraqi Shia provinces
Islamic State group (IS) has claimed killing and injuring over 140 Shia Muslims in two suicide attacks carried out in Iraqi Shia provinces. The insurgents claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed 20 people in Babel province, and also a separate suicide attack, also on 9 June, at a car park in central Karbala - the holy Shia city where jihadist attacks are rare. On 9 June IS's news outlet Amaq said a militant detonated his suicide vest targeting a gathering of Shia in Musayab district in Babylon province, just east of Karbala city. Iraqi authorities said that 20 people had been killed and another 21 injured.
Iranian Spokesman condemns suicide attack in Iraq’s Babylon and Karbala provinces
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi has strongly condemned “terrorist attacks” in Iraq’s Babylon and Karbala Provinces on 9 June. Mehr Qassemi extended deepest condolences to the government and the nation of Iraq as well as the families of the victims who lost their lives in two attacks claimed by the so- called Islamic State group on 9 June
Iraqi forces contain tribal clashes in Basra
Iraqi forces have contained tribal clashes in the southern province of Basra on 3 June. A security source stated that clashes broke out between individuals from two tribes in the Al-Hartha area, north of Basra.
Diyala local official warns against "Da'esh invasion"
Udai al-Khadran, a local official in Khalis district, has told Iraqi press that the deployment of IS militants in Matabijah on the border between Salah ad Din and Diyala provinces had increased to a dangerous level
US says air campaign in northern Iraq is the most accurate in military history
The air campaign against IS over Mosul is the “most accurate” in military history, according to the spokesperson for the US-led coalition, Colonel Ryan Dillon. “The coalition uses only precision weapons systems when we conduct any kind of targeting of IS forces inside of Mosul. This is the most accurate air campaign in the history of warfare”, he stated. “That said, we know the tactics that IS uses”, he continued, noting the extremist group’s use of human shields
U.S. CENTCOM Commander in Iraq for meetings with Abadi
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi met with CENTCOM Commander Gen. Joseph Votel in Baghdad on June 5, in order to discuss the post-IS era with Votel stressing his country's support to Iraq in its war against terrorism.
Islamic State set up hospital in Hawijah to treat wounded fighters
Islamic State militants have set up a new hospital in their stronghold town of Hawijah, Kirkuk province, to treat wounded members, according to local sources. The makeshift hospital was reportedly opened at a civilian- owned house, and was supplied with medical equipment previously stolen from the town’s main hospital
Airstrike by Iraqi army jets kill Islamic State leader in Hawija
A prominent Islamic State leader has been killed in an airstrike that targeted Hawija, in Kirkuk province, according to Diyala provincial council’s security committee. In remarks to reporters on June 6, Sadeq al- Husseini, head of the council, said “prominent IS leader in Hawija known as Abu Mohamed al-Shami, a Syrian national, was killed in an airstrike that targeted a group’s location in Fudeiha village, in Hawija, southwest of Kirkuk.”
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Foreign Affairs
IS claims attacks in Tehran
Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the terrorist attacks in the Iranian capital Tehran that have reportedly killed at least twelve people and wounded many more. The claim was issued through IS's news outlet Amaq, which quoted an IS "security source" as saying: "Islamic State fighters have attacked the Mausoleum of [Ayatollah] Khomeini and the parliament building in central
Qatar boycott by five countries escalates
Qatar has come under a far-reaching boycott at the hands of the most powerful Arab governments for allegedly taking Iran’s side against its Sunni Arab fellows. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirate and Bahrain announced early on June 5, that they were breaking off diplomatic ties and all land, sea and airports contacts with Qatar. This is the most serious diplomatic crisis to hit the Arab world – and split the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - in many years.
Iran, Turkey and Iraq to Meet in Baghdad over Qatar Rift
An emergency meeting will gather Tehran, Ankara and Baghdad senior officials in Baghdad to discuss the recent rift among the regional countries over Qatar according to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary for Iran's Expediency Discernment Council, who posted the news on his twitter account, saying the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation will also be summoned to help in resolving the issue. The official, however, did not reveal any more details such as the timing of the assembly.
Economy
Critical Infrastructure in Fallujah improving
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) announced on June 3 that the al-Azrakiyah Water Treatment Plant, which provides safe water to more than 60% of the city, was re-opened. The rehabilitation of the plant was one of the key projects requested by the Anbar Command Cell, which is responsible for stabilising newly liberated areas.
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WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Countrywide Military/Security Situation Northern Provinces (Kirkuk/Salah al-Din/Diyala)
Reporting in the remainder of the north region indicated IS are continuing to rebuild insurgent networks and enhance capability throughout the region.
There was further Sunni militant activity in Dibis district. On June 7, ISF found and cleared an IED near a well in the Bai Hassan oilfield in Dibis district, northwest of Kirkuk. COMMENT: ‘This was the third IED emplaced targeting oil infrastructure in the past fortnight. Two devices have been discovered and disarmed, although the device that detonated caused material damage and a fire.’ COMMENT ENDS. Indications that insurgents operating in Dibis have greater aspirations to expand their campaign were evident on June 7, when a VBIED was intercepted on the Dibis-Kirkuk road, and two IS militants apprehended. The device was reportedly destined for Kirkuk city.
Activity in Salah ad Din was typical with the majority of reporting involving IDF in areas in close proximity to the IS-held Hawijah pocket. Bayji was particularly busy, with pressure on ISF from the Makhoul Mountains to the east and from the desert areas that link to Anbar from the west. Most reporting involved IDF attacks but there were direct attacks in the town of Siniya to the west of Bayji, and in Fatah, east of Bayji. Both locations represent the defensive ISF line. In the far north of the province, Khanoukha was targeted with an ISF operation, as IS IDF and drone activity continued in the area, including in nearby Shirqat. In southern Salah ad Din, activity was
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predominantly comprised of asymmetric IED activity, ad despite a number of direct fire SAF incidents, only two could be confidently attributed to IS militants.
There was notable Sunni militant activity in Diyala during the period, with incidents occurring along the Diyala River Valley. There were two instances where suicide attackers were intercepted by ISF, in Balad Ruz and in Baqubah. Near Balad Ruz on June 5, ISF intercepted an SVIED attacker, who detonated his vest at a checkpoint, injuring six people including two ISF. In the western Mualimeen neighbourhood of Baqubah, ISF intercepted and killed a suicide attacker, although six people including an ISF member were injured. It was subsequently claimed that the bomber’s target was a market in the city. Other incidents included the targeting of ISF with direct fire or IEDs, as well as infrastructure. Electricity transmission pylons were targeted on three separate occasions in the northeast of the province with IEDs and on one occasion SAF. COMMENT: ‘Diyala has seen an increase in the use of suicide attackers in the past two weeks, with Baqubah being successfully targeted for the first time in over a year on May 28. There were also two SVIED attackers intercepted and killed on June 3 in Mukhaysah.’ COMMENT ENDS.
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Anbar Province
Anbar remains problematic in terms of security, with large ungoverned spaces providing Sunni militants haven areas to facilitate the training, logistics and freedom of movement to sustain a mature insurgency. Despite ISF retaking key cities and urban areas in 2016, IS affiliates have largely relocated to IS-held territory or desert havens from which they continue to operate.
One of the most significant attacks this week occurred on June 6, when an SVIED attacker detonated their explosive vest in a house in central Hit. Seven people were killed and two injured. COMMENT: ‘Hit has been increasingly targeted with attacks perpetrated by Sunni militant over the last three months. There was almost no militant activity detected earlier in the year, but incidents have increased in frequency since March, and the growing sophistication of attacks indicates a rapidly increasing Sunni militant capability in the area. The Security Committee of the Anbar Provincial Council has called for a review of security in the city following this latest attack.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Security is still precarious along the international highways to Jordan, and this week there was a VBIED and complex ambush along the route. There was also an attack repelled in vicinity of the al-Walid border crossing with Syria, close to the border with Jordan. Two key bridges close-by were also destroyed with IEDs, hampering traffic utilising the highway.
To the northwest of Haditha, in the al-Sagra area, pre-emptive operations to shape the environment for the clearance of Anah, Rawa and Qaim commenced. The operations aim to cut IS supply lines in the desert, whilst simultaneously providing safe corridors for civilians to evacuate.
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Capital Region (Baghdad City)
Baghdad was relatively subdued during the period, with no high-profile attacks perpetrated, and no indication that any were attempted. Most activity took place in routine hotspots of the city, including west Rashid in the southwest of the city, where IEDs predominated, and in the Sadr city and Adhamiyah areas, where most activity involved SAF.
The most significant attack took place in Suwaib, west Rashid, on the outskirts of southwest Baghdad, where an IED detonated at a market, killing one person and injuring four others. However, most IED and grenade activity was intimidation violence.
There were a number of incidents linked to tribal disputes, one such instance involved several gunmen firing at an accountability and justice advisor's home in Atifiya, and they then threw a grenade causing material damage. There were also tribal SAF incidents in Sadr City and Adhamiyah that resulted in one fatality and injuries.
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Central Region (Baghdad Belts)
IED activity continued in the rural areas of Provincial Baghdad. Incidents targeted either ISF patrols or civilians near shops or markets.
The most significant Sunni militant activity continues to occur in Tarmiyah, in the north of the district. ISF are the predominant target, either whilst on patrol or when off-duty. A policeman’s house was targeted with several IEDs in the district on June 4, destroying the house; there was also a fatal roadside IED targeting ISF near the Ibn Sina intersection, that killed a policeman and injuring two others. COMMENT: ‘Similar attacks were extensively utilised during the insurgency of 2013/2014 as IS looked to target ISF personnel, to achieve attrition as well as demoralise the force.’ COMMENT ENDS.
IDF was recorded in the west of the province, when a 10-year old boy was killed and four civilians injured, all from one family, when a mortar shell hit their home in Ibrahim Bin Ali area. COMMENT: ‘IDF is occasionally utilized when tribal conflicts escalate, as may have been the case in this instance.’ COMMENT ENDS.
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Southern Provinces
Reporting in the south was dominated by two SVIED attacks in the provinces of Karbala and Babel on June 9.
The first attack occurred in Karbala at approximately 0600hrs. An SVIED attacker detonated his explosive vest at in a car park in central Karbala as ISF attempted to arrest him, killing one and injuring six civilians and causing material damage to vehicles. Later the same day, an SVIED attacker – reportedly a female – detonated an explosive vest at the entrance to a market in Musayyib al-Kabir, northern Babel province, killing 21 and injuring 33. IS claimed responsibility for both attacks. COMMENT: ‘This was the first high-profile attack in Karbala since June 2016, when a VBIED detonated in the city. There are two highly significant Shia shrines in Karbala, and as such the city has extensive security precautions and large numbers of ISF personnel deployed in central areas. The targeting of Karbala is highly symbolic, especially during Ramadan, and designed to exacerbate sectarian tensions. Northern Babel has historically been an important support zone for Sunni militants, although since the clearance of the area in 2014 has been relatively subdued. These attacks highlight continuing IS intent to target the southern provinces. Security has been tightened in southern provinces following the attack.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Aside from these attacks activity in the southern regions was typical and mostly related to tribal issues or criminality. The Basra-Baghdad highway (Route Topeka) was again closed due to a tribal conflict which broke out due to a football game in Dayr, 30km north of Basra city. ISF subsequently arrested five people involved in the incident. The road was also cut last week due to tribal fighting. Locals protested to authorities about the continuing violence in the area and the negative effect it has on daily lives. Tribal fighting was also noted in Abu Sukkar, northwest Basra city, in a continuation of violence from last week.
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Elsewhere, there was tribal fighting in the Fadhiliya area, Dhi Qar, which then escalated to gunfire, although no damages or injuries were caused. ISF arrested one tribesman. Other activity in the region was low-level and typical.
Demonstrations took place across the south on Friday June 9, with Sadrists again calling for the overhaul of the Independent High Election Commission (IHEC) and denouncing plans for the privatisation of electricity supplies. Hundreds of Sadrist supporters turned out in Basra, Dhi Qar, and Muthanna.


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