Weekly Iraq .Xplored report

Weekly Iraq .Xplored report
8 July 2017
Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
08 July 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 2 ACTIVITY MAP .................................................................................................................................................... 3 OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Short term outlook ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Medium to long term outlook............................................................................................................................ 4
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...................................................................................................................................... 5
Victory in Mosul to be announced.................................................................................................................... 5
IS capture village in southern Nineveh near US manned airbase................................................................. 5
THREAT MATRIX ................................................................................................................................................ 5 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................................................... 6
Mosul ................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Security ............................................................................................................................................................... 6
Political................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Foreign Affairs.................................................................................................................................................... 7
Economy ............................................................................................................................................................. 7
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................... 9
Countrywide Military/Security Situation .......................................................................................................... 9
ACRONYM LIST ................................................................................................................................................ 15 GARDAWORLD INFORMATION SERVICES .............................................................................................. 16 GARDAWORLD.................................................................................................................................................. 16
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader’s own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
08 July 2017
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ACTIVITY MAP

Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
08 July 2017
OUTLOOK
Short term outlook
 With victory in Mosul announced across Iraqi media, there is an elevated likelihood of coordinated reprisal attacks into population centres across the north, west and centre of Iraq, though these will likely be constrained by resources and the security footprint, particularly in Baghdad. IS may also attempt to increase their attack tempo in eastern Anbar, with the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah likely to be key targets for high- profile attacks.
 Two SVBIED attacks in Basra province on May 19, and SVIED attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9 exhibit IS retains intent and capability for attacks in the southern provinces. The region remains assessed as non- permissive for IS to significantly escalate operations due to demographics, with the few Sunni militant sympathizers in the region remaining isolated.
 The security footprint and other local factors in the central and southern regions, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the type reported in the north and the west of the country. The threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province.
Medium to long term outlook
 In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk. It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates.
 Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country. In the long-term, there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS.
 While the Mosul operation has refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
08 July 2017
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
Victory in Mosul to be announced
In the week following PM al-Abadi’s declaration that the Islamic ‘Statelet’ had effectively ended with the ISF recapture of the former al-Nouri mosque site, ISF have continued with their clearance of the remaining neighbourhoods of the Old City. Iraqi television channel Mayadeen and other outlets have quoted CTS commanders as stating that the final IS positions have been cleared, though as of July 8 no official announcement has yet been made.
IS capture village in southern Nineveh near US manned airbase
More than 100 militants from the Hawijah enclave are understood to have infiltrated into the village during another, sustained, attack three days ago, taking unspecified number of villagers captive. Security forces with Iraqi air support are reported to have deployed to recapture the village. Proximity to the US-manned Qayyarah airbase (10km away) may have influenced the choice of target.
THREAT MATRIX
Region KRG* North** Baghdad Anbar South***
Political
Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Minimal
Terrorism Militancy
Low Low
High-Extreme High Moderate Moderate
Crime K&R
Low Low
High High
Moderate
Moderate
High
Low
High
Moderate Moderate
High High
Moderate
Extreme
Moderate
* ** ***
KRG – Dohuk, Erbil & Sulaymaniyah
North – Nineveh, Salah ad-Din & Diyala
South – Babil, Wasit, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Maysan & Basra
Threat Scale
Low
High
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
08 July 2017
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Mosul
Mosul Tactical Update
In the week following PM al-Abadi’s declaration that the Islamic ‘Statelet’ had effectively ended with the ISF recapture of the former al-Nouri mosque site, ISF have continued with their clearance of the remaining neighbourhoods of the Old City. Iraqi television channel Mayadeen and other outlets have quoted CTS commanders as stating that the final IS positions have been cleared, though as of July 8 no official announcement has yet been made, and one source has cited other officials as denying the account. Celebratory gunfire has also been reported in the city.
ISF commanders have described how IS fighters this last week increasingly resorted used suicide bombers” to try and slow ISF’s advance. "They have begun to wait for the troops to reach them and then blow themselves up. They can't do any more than that," said CTS commander Lt. Gen. Aridhi. Other reporting also noted the increasing use of IS members’ wives, along with children as human shields, to fire upon advancing ISF. Reports citing an Iraqi officer claimed that IS launched a counter attack along the northern edge of Mosul's Old City on the afternoon of July 7. According to the report, the attack was carried out by 50 to 100 IS fighters. Later reports claimed that the counter attack had been blunted.
Despite their looming defeat, IS consistently presented stiff resistance to advancing troops, making full use of prepared defences and human shields, including children. Social media has also shown images of a female suicide bomber carrying a baby towards advancing CTS. On July 3, two female suicide bombers hiding amongst fleeing civilians reportedly killed one Iraqi soldier and injured several others near the al-Nouri mosque site.
Security
IS Imam apparently admits death of IS leader Al-Baghdadi, but later executed
It was reported from on June 30, that the imam of a mosque known as Abu Qutaiba in the IS-held town of Tal Afar had indirectly confirmed al-Baghdadi’s death, while delivering the Friday khutbah (sermon). Later reports claimed that Qutaiba was later arrested by IS burned to death by his captors for causing ‘internal division’. Related reporting has also stated that IS are imposing punishments in Tal Afar for discussing Baghdadi.
Security forces build fortifications near Tuz Khourmatu against frequent IS attacks
Security forces west of Tuz Khourmatu have reportedly begun work on a 43-kilometer trench and a watch tower near the town in order to monitor the area and any IS movement after increasingly frequent, often sustained IS attacks in recent weeks. Brigadier General Sidiq Mohammed, commander of the 11th Brigade, told press that the new trench would provide better protection for his forces and stronger defensive lines.
Leaked document says IS planning major attack against Kirkuk
According to multiple press reports, a leaked document from the Kirkuk Security Directorate suggests that IS have been planning a three-stage offensive on Kirkuk city. According to the document, the first stage includes the infiltration of 50 to 60 IS fighters into the district of Daquq. The second stage reported that IS would seek to control the highway leading to the Iranian border). In the final stage, insurgents would apparently order sleeper cells in Kirkuk’s al-Bu Hamdan district to attack government facilities.
Explosion at water refinery in Fallujah causes chlorine poisoning
On July 3, Iraqi media reported that following an explosion at a water refinery serving Fallujah, nearly 1000 people have been affected by suspected chlorine poisoning. The reports quoted Abdurrahamn Lawas, Anbar health director, as saying the explosion of chlorine storage tank occurred in Martyrs neighbourhood of Fallujah. It remains unclear if the explosion was a terrorist attack or caused by a technical failure.
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Anti-war website claims at least 4,900 killed in Iraq in June
According to figures released by the US based anti-war.com website on July 3, at least 4,900 people were killed in Iraq, and another 1,600 were wounded in violent acts in June. The report described these figures as ‘low-ball estimates’ as the Iraqi government does not provide accurate casualty figures. The report described the June total as ‘significantly higher’ than the figures for May, which reported 3,000 killed and 600 wounded, citing intense fighting in Mosul in June. The report also pointed to a recent UN statement that claimed that over 7,000 civilians had suffered gunshot wounds in recent weeks, with many of them having died.
UN estimates that up to 20,000 civilians still trapped in Old City area
A statement by the UN humanitarian coordinator in Iraq, Lise Grande, on July 6 stated that the UN estimates that in the final pockets of (Mosul’s) Old City, there could be as many as 15,000 civilians, possibly even as high as 20,000. Grande pointed out that the remaining civilians are in extreme danger from ISF artillery and IS alike and that IS fighters are still directly targeting civilians if they try to leave. The UN also estimates that the number of people fleeing the combat area is between 2,000 and 3,500 each day.
UN operations in Haj Ali camp south of Mosul temporarily suspended over security concerns
The UN’s International Organization for Migration announced July 7 the temporary suspension at the Qayyarah air strip emergency site and the Haj Ali camp amid sporadic violence and gunfire. IOM spokesman Joel Millman said local staffers were instructed to stay home and not enter the camps following a curfew and restrictions on movement imposed by Iraqi authorities. The temporary suspension of operations at the camp comes after recent clashes in the areas of Shirqat and Qayyarah in southern Nineveh.
Political
Ammar Hakim discusses Iraq situation with Iranian officials in Tehran
Head of the National Iraqi Alliance (NIA) Ammar Hakim held separate meetings with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani on July 3 in Tehran. During his meeting with the two Iranian senior officials, Ammar Hakim discussed the latest political situation and ground developments in Iraq, particularly with regard to fighting IS. The sides also conferred on ways for expanding bilateral relations between the two countries.
PM’s weekly news address declares defeat of IS in Mosul
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has declared the defeat of IS in Mosul after Iraqi forces recaptured most of the city. Abadi made the statement during his weekly news conference on July 4, aired by state-run Iraqia News TV. Abadi added that the victory had been achieved as ‘a united people’ and called for the preservation of this unity. Abadi also stated that calls for Iraqi forces to fight IS outside Iraq's border would be unconstitutional.
Sadr launches campaign for official investigation into the 2014 ‘Speicher massacre’
Muqtada al-Sadr has launched a campaign to collect one million signatures calling on the Iraqi government and UN to form a committee to fully investigate the facts surrounding the infamous ‘Camp Speicher massacre’ on the outskirts of Tikrit by IS in June 2014, as well as the events surrounding the fall of Mosul days earlier. The quest for an official investigation into the massacre were over 1,500 Iraqi Air Force cadets were murdered by IS has remained a controversial issue amongst the Iraqi populace.
Foreign Affairs
Iran: rights still not restored, nearly 30 years after Iran-Iraq war
President Hassan Rouhani has said 30 years after the end of Iraq-Iraq war (1980-1988) some of Iran's rights have not been restored, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on July 2. Rouhani speaking at an annual conference in Tehran stated that the CBC (Common Bureau of Cooperation) between the two countries
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
08 July 2017
has still not been formed and that the Shatt al-Arab waterway (shared between Iran and Iraq) is still littered with shipwrecks.
Turkey says nearly 190 IS suspects arrested in June
Nearly 190 IS suspects were arrested in nationwide counterterrorism operations across Turkey in June, according to information from security officials. Reports further claimed that 20 of 188 IS suspects arrested in June, including foreigners, were remanded in custody to face trial on a variety of charges. During counter- terrorism operations across Turkey, including ones in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Gaziantep, security officials also claimed to have thwarted several planned attacks.
Baghdad says Iraqi cleric killed in Iran
Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported on July 7 that an Iraqi cleric was killed in Iran. News reports claimed that cleric Neama Hadi al-Essawi was kidnapped and subsequently killed in Iran. A foreign ministry statement said that Iraqi authorities were following up the incident with the Iranian authorities through the Iraqi embassy in Tehran and the consulate in Mashhad. The reported noted that a suspect had been arrested by the Iranian authorities.
Economy
Food security remains fragile for 3.5 million Iraqi refugees according to the UN
The food security situation for 3.5 million Iraqis displaced by the war against IS remains fragile, according to a statement by Fadel a-Zubi, of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on July 2. Al-Zubi stated that nearly 3.5 million displaced people are experiencing limited access to food across several areas, mainly in northern Iraq. He added that civilians in the western side of Mosul city continue to have limited access to food clean water.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
08 July 2017
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Countrywide Military/Security Situation Northern Provinces (Kirkuk/Salah al-Din/Diyala)
Media reporting as of July 7 stated that ISF were engaged with IS militants in Qayyarah’s Imam Gharbi village in southern Nineveh. More than 100 militants from the Hawijah enclave are understood to have infiltrated into the village during another, sustained, attack three days ago, taking unspecified number of villagers captive. Security forces with Iraqi air support are reported to have deployed to recapture the village.
Relating reporting has also stated that on July 6, IS conducted another sustained attack on Khadraniyah village in northern Salah ad-Din’s Shirqat district. Three Sunni militia men were reportedly killed and another four wounded, though the War Media Cell has claimed that IS sustained ‘dozens’ of casualties in the attack.
IS have also been making their presence felt on the eastern and southern sides of the Hawijah enclave. In neighbouring Kirkuk province, five IEDs placed near an oil wellhead were disarmed in Bai Hassan Oil Field, 45km north of Kirkuk city. Two security force members were injured when their vehicle was hit by two roadside IEDs whilst transiting Dibis district in the north of the province. Additionally, a security force member was wounded in an IS sharpshooter attack in Daquq in the provincial south. Security forces in neighbouring Salah ad- Din report repelling an IDF and SAF attack on security posts in Zrakah village, Tuz Khourmatu in the east of the province, killing seven IS militants.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
08 July 2017
Within Kirkuk city, three suspected IS militants from Hawijah were arrested in a raid in Nasir neighbourhood. This followed another similar arrest in which security forces arrested a man disguised as a woman, understood to have (familial) links to IS. Within Hawijah itself, ISF and coalition strikes have continued to attrit IS strengths, leadership and materiel. There have also been further reports of factional fighting. Eight militants were reportedly killed in a SVBIED attack on an IS-held building; the driver was reported to be wearing clothes that affiliated him to the group.
To the east, in Diyala, no major reporting themes have emerged, though activity though has been consistent with long established trends for SAF and IED attacks around the central belt linking Baqubah with Balad Ruz and Naft Khana. In-keeping with past reporting, it is not clear if much of this activity is attributable to IS, tribal feuding or other criminal activity, though apparent targeted attacks on a policeman and a department of health employee are highly suggestive of insurgent motivation.
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Anbar Province
At least 14 people were reportedly killed and 13 others injured in a suicide attack that targeted a camp for displaced Iraqis at the 60 Kilo camp, Al-Wafaa district, 35km west of Ramadi, according to media reports late on July 2. The report claimed that a suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt detonated his device inside the camp. Reports further claimed that most of the victims were women and children, but also included two security personnel at the camp. Adnan Fayhan, the head of the local council in the Al-Wafaa area, where the camp is located, said that the camp would be closed following the attack.
'Dozens' of PMU members were reportedly killed in an IS rocket shelling near Al-Walid Border Crossing as they were pushing towards al-Qadhif valley in the Anbar desert. Iraqi army aviation has been accused by PMU of failing to provide air support to the troops on the ground. In related reporting, four rockets impacted on the outskirts of al-Asad Airbase in Hit, though no damages or injuries were recorded. Following this, international press reporting claimed that IS were planning a significant attack on Al-Waleed.
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Capital Region (Baghdad City)
Four apparent insurgent IED attacks were reported within the city. Detonations in Rusafa, Dora, Bayaa and Suwaib have injured eight people.
As seen elsewhere in Iraq, electricity outages have seen protest action. ‘Dozens’ reportedly gathered in Dora, East Rashid to complain about disruption to electricity supplies. ISF imposed a security plan to contain the protest. Dozens of Shia Kurds also demonstrated in central Baghdad’s Kifah Street in Rusafa, protesting calls on social media for Kurds to be stripped of their Iraqi nationality over plans for the independence referendum.
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Central Region (Baghdad Belts)
Checkpoint Falcon near Baghdad’s western boundary with Anbar was temporarily closed owing to a broken X- Ray machine. The checkpoint has since re-opened, and ISF have announced additional security measures to supplement the non-functioning equipment. The closure appears to have led indirectly to a fatal shooting; a taxi- driver is understood to have been killed when ISF fired upon his vehicle after seeing it execute a rapid manoeuvre close to their position.
Increased insurgent activity has been noted in the north of the province. A fatal IED attack was reported in Tajiat on July 6, and a member of the Sunni tribal militia was injured in a reported sharpshooter attack in Tarmiyah. Varying reports over July 5 and 6 stated that as many as three members of an ISF patrol were wounded or killed in a SAF exchange with IS in Ibn Sina, also in Tarmiyah. Single source reporting on July 8 also stated indicated that security forces supported by helicopters had foiled an IS attack in Mushada sub-district. An ISF airstrike in Tarmiyah, an unusual though not unprecedented action in northern Baghdad province, destroyed an IS building.
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Southern Provinces
Reporting in the south has again been characterised by demonstrations linked with failures of public services, as well as shooting incidents linked with tribal violence although a spike in attempts for attack preparation were prominent in the Babel area, a suspected IS militant was arrested with an SVEST north of Musayyib. Prior to this ISF disarmed a VBIED, parked next to a restaurant in Hilla.
The Basra provincial council Chairman Sabah Al-Bazzouni was arrested on July 6 on corruption allegations related to an electricity deal with a UAE company. Reports have claimed that he has been charged with using his position to fulfil personal interests. Protests were later reported at the Basra Court House where al-Bazzouni's hearing was taking place. The Iraqi PM has since cancelled the electricity contract with the UAE Company, and has referred the matter to the integrity commission.


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