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Weekly Iraq .Xplored report
16 September 2017
Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq
garda.com/ips
Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
16 September 2017
Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
16 September 2017
Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld [3] garda.com/ips
OUTLOOK
Short term outlook
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
Al-Abadi discusses 2018 federal budget - emphasis on nurturing private sector
On September 10, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi instructed the Ministry of Finance to conduct a thorough review of the proposed federal budget for 2018. During his meeting with senior figures in the Ministry of Finance al-Abadi stressed "the importance of discussing the budget in 2018 and achieve further reduction of the operational expenses of the three presidencies and ministries.
Coalition, Iraqi Jets step up airstrikes on IS-held Hawijah
The Iraqi Air Force and the US-led coalition against IS have increased airstrikes on IS positions in the town of Hawijah, according to Iraq's minister of defence. Erfan al-Hayali stated that ISF were working very closely with the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the US-led coalition ahead of the upcoming operation for the liberation of Hawijah.
IS claims attacks on Shia in southern Iraq
IS has said it carried out attacks targeting Shia Muslims in southern Iraq. The group's news outlet Amaq said IS militants carried out a suicide bombing and "commando" attacks on a restaurant and checkpoint northwest of Nasiriya city on a main road linking with Basra to its south.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Political
Iraqi parliament votes to dismiss Kirkuk governor
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The Iraqi parliament has voted to sack Najmiddin Karim, governor of Kirkuk Province, north of Baghdad. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had asked parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri to include the dismissal of Karim on its agenda. Karim's office subsequently issued a statement saying that the governor would continue in his post because "the decision by the Iraqi Council of Representatives is invalid and only the Kirkuk Governorate Council can remove the governor from his post". COMMENT: ‘The firing of the governor is due to his decision to include
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
16 September 2017
Kirkuk in the forthcoming Kurdistan independence referendum on September 25th. The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government has denounced Baghdad’s decision saying that the Iraqi parliament "has no right to dismiss Kirkuk's governor". On 11 September, Karim said that the Kurdish independence referendum, slated for 25 September, would be held in the province, stressing that the step would have no impact on the peaceful coexistence among the different populations of Kirkuk.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Ex-Iraqi Minister arrested in Beirut
Lebanese security services arrested have reportedly arrested the former Iraqi trade minister, Abdul-Fallah al- Sudani, who is convicted of corruption. Sudani, who is wanted by Interpol, was arrested in Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport on September 10. In 2012, Sudani was convicted of embezzlement in absentia and sentenced to seven years in jail. As a leader in the former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shi'ite Dawa Party, he served as trade minister 2006-2009. After he was accused by the Integrity Board of corruption, he attempted to flee but was arrested in Baghdad Airport. He was then released on bail and later escaped the country.
Security
IS claims attacks on Shia in southern Iraq
IS has said it carried out attacks targeting Shia Muslims in southern Iraq. The group's news outlet Amaq said IS militants carried out a suicide bombing and "commando" attacks on a restaurant and checkpoint northwest of Nasiriya city on a main road linking with Basra to its south. Meanwhile, the director-general of Iran's Hajj Organisation, Mohsen Nezafati said three Iranian pilgrims were killed and four injured in the attack. Nezafati said in addition to two Hajj caravans belonging to the Hajj Organisation other Iranian Hajj caravans were also present at the scene and "there is a possibility that more Iranian pilgrims are dead or injured". COMMENT: ‘A group of unidentified gunmen stormed Fidak restaurant on Highway 1, approximately 25km northwest of Nasiriyah (Dhi Qar governorate), on September 14. Soon after, a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) detonated at a nearby military checkpoint. At least 84 people were killed during the twin attacks, and at least 93 people were injured. At least half of the victims were likely Iranian pilgrims en route to the holy city of Karbala.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Islamic State arrests six Kurdish members in Hawija
Islamic State has arrested six of its Kurdish members, including a leader, in the southwest of Kirkuk, a paramilitary official said on September 15. “IS arrested six members of its so-called Halabja group, including a leader - all of the members were Kurdish and had taken part in several attacks in Kirkuk over the past months” the official added. “The arrests took place in the aftermath of clashes between Halabja group and IS militants on the boundaries of Hawija”. “The reasons behind the clashes are unknown yet, however, conflicts among the militants are clearly ongoing in the region”.
Security forces foil terrorist attack in western Baghdad
Security forces have foiled an attack that targeted the house of an Iraqi senior officer in Hay al-Kahera district western Baghdad. In a statement, the department said, “intelligence of the 44th brigade, in cooperation with the national security agency noticed a suspect while attempting to place an IED a house of an Interior Ministry officer in al-Qahira district, north of Baghdad” “The suspect was besieged before getting arrested,” the department said. Explosive experts were summoned to defuse the bomb.
Iraqi tribal leader says IS militants surrender in Shirqat
An Iraqi tribal leader has said that more than 50 IS militants surrendered to the security authorities north of Baghdad. "A group of notables from Al-Shirqat tribes led an ideological, national initiative to urge Daesh members and those involved with them in several villages in the eastern side of Shirqat to surrender to security services," Sheikh Dia al-Ghadab told press on 9 September. "The initiative was widely welcomed by IS relatives
Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
16 September 2017
and those involved with them. They responded to it in coordination with the security and intelligence services," al-Ghadab said. Iraqi security forces are preparing an offensive to recapture the eastern areas of Shirqat from IS in parallel with another operation to drive IS militants from Hawija in Kirkuk province, north of Baghdad. The army said that its warplanes had dropped thousands of leaflets on Shirqat and Hawija, urging IS militants to surrender.
IS claims attack in eastern Mosul
IS has claimed a rare attack against "Iraqi intelligence elements" in eastern Mosul. On 9 September, IS's news outlet Amaq reported that an armed attack in Mosul's Al-Nour neighbourhood had killed "six members of the Iraqi intelligence services". This is the first attack that IS has claimed since 25 July, when the group said it had killed an Iraqi officer and an intelligence agent in eastern Mosul. In a separate Amaq report, IS also claimed to have destroyed a vehicle carrying Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) with an IED north of Mosul.
Coalition, Iraqi Jets step up airstrikes on IS-held Hawijah
The Iraqi Air Force and the US-led coalition against IS have increased airstrikes on IS positions in the town of Hawijah, according to Iraq's minister of defence. Erfan al-Hayali stated that ISF were working very closely with the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the US-led coalition ahead of the upcoming operation for the liberation of Hawijah. The minister added that the US-led coalition stepped up its airstrikes, targeting the IS-held areas in the enclave in order to prepare for the liberation of the town. Coalition aircraft destroyed IS headquarters and weapons caches in Khuzafy, Al-Qsilana, Umm Qasir and other sites in Hawijah district, killing seven and wounding four other members of the organization. In related reporting, IS militants abducted five residents of Hawijah on charges of collaborating with the security forces and took them to a detention centre in Hawijah town. Three young men had previously been executed on charges of cooperating with the security forces. Meanwhile, latest reporting indicates more IS militants and their families are attempting to flee the enclave ahead of the imminent battle on the city, and many have succeeded in leaving. Iraqi PM Haider al-Abadi stated that the restoration of Hawijah requires coordination with the Peshmerga forces of the Kurdistan Region, stressing however that recapturing of the city is the task of the Iraqi forces alone.
17 IS militants killed in coalition shelling in Anbar – Renewed ISF offensive operations may start September 20
More than seventeen IS members were killed in airstrikes in western Anbar, a security source said. “On September 10, U.S-led Coalition jets bombarded IS locations in Qaim, Annah and Rawa, west of Anbar. Seventeen IS members, including leader, Mohamed Abboud Abd Manaf, were killed in the Wadi al-Kasr region, located between Annah and Rawa. The IS member in charge of the group’s prisons in Qaim, known as Farhan Rafiq Eteiwy, was also killed. On September 9, Coalition jets also reportedly bombarded three booby-trapped vehicles in several regions in Annah, killing a number of militants. Military operations, backed by the US-led coalition and the Shia PMUs to recapture Hawijah in Kirkuk Governorate, al-Shirqat neighbourhood in Salah al Din Governorate and cities in western Anbar, will be launched concurrently on September 20, according to observers.
Iraq holding hundreds of foreign IS family members
Iraqi forces are holding more than 1,300 foreign women and children, the families of IS militants, at a camp for displaced people in northern Iraq. The 1,333 individuals, from 14 countries, surrendered to Kurdish forces at the end of August after an Iraqi offensive drove the extremist group from the northern town of Tal Afar, Iraqi security officials said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity in keeping with military protocol. They say the women and children will not be charged with crimes and will likely be repatriated to their home countries. Most hail from Central Asia, Russia and Turkey, but the group also includes people from as far away as Japan and South Korea.
30 Islamic State women have committed suicide bombings in Mosul
Thirty Islamic State women members have detonated themselves during engagements with the group in western Mosul, according to a senior Iraqi commander. Twelve others had been arrested recently and referred to justice,
according to a spokesman of the army’s Counter-Terrorism Service. He said those arrested lately included French, German, Chechnyan, Iranian, Moroccan and Tunisian nationals. The commander also said that ISF had managed to convince only two women not to proceed with their suicide attacks, while attempts with the other 30 were futile.
Military reinforcements arrive in Ramadi to retake western Anbar cities
ISF reinforcements from the army's 8th division have arrived in Al Asad Airbase in Ramadi district in preparation for retaking Annah, Rawa, and Qai'm cities from IS in western Anbar Governorate, a security source said on September 11. He added that the 30th Brigade will participate in the operation, along with Iraqi army and security forces. In addition, the Iraqi army's 7th division arrived in the Al-Sakra area, west of Haditha, 190km west of Ramadi. Meanwhile, air strikes by Iraqi air force have reportedly killed scores of IS militants in Al-Qaim district near the Syrian border. The army's War Media Cell said that the strikes had destroyed arms depots and a workshop used by IS for preparing booby-trapped vehicles in the district.
Humanitarian
Over 100,000 civilians flee Hawijah
The Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights has estimated the number of displaced civilians from Hawijah at 101,000 between August 2016 to September 2017. In a statement on September 11, the observatory said, “most of the displaced civilians from Hawijah headed to the villages in its vicinity or to Kirkuk”. According to the statement, the residents “fled due to violations committed by IS, in addition to U.S.-led Coalition’s airstrikes targeting the group’s headquarters located in the residential areas”. “More than 1,700 families from Hawijah are there in Daquq camp in Kirkuk, where most of the residents fleeing IS are sheltered alongside displaced people from Baaj and some regions in Nineveh”, the observatory said.
COMMENT: ‘Hawijah and other neighbouring regions, west of Kirkuk, have been held by IS since mid-2014, when the group emerged to proclaim an Islamic “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria. The group executed dozens of civilians and security members there, forcing thousands to flee homes. Earlier this month, news reports said 100,000 civilians are currently besieged in Hawijah by IS and that the insurgents could use them as human shields during the forthcoming IS offensive. Further reinforcements from the Federal Police were sent earlier this month from Baghdad to the town, as ISF declared the end of operations in Tal Afar, and the approach of the launch of the offensive to retake the enclave. The United Nations has predicted at least 114,000 civilians will flee Hawijah as the battle starts. Spokesman for the Iraqi Joint Operations Command Yehia Rasool stated last week that there were around 2,000 IS militants inside Hawijah.
Hawijah is the biggest district in Iraq that has been under IS rule since June 2014 and forms 32% of the Kirkuk province. Hawijah became a district in 1961 and majority of its residents are Arabs with a Kurdish minority. There are several tribes: Obaid, Jabur, Shamar, Naimi, Delemi and Hadidi in the Hawijah district which had a population of 320,000 people in 2014 census. Hawijah is an important centre of agriculture in Iraq and produces vegetables and fruits as well as wheat and barley. It has also been a hotspot for violence and is considered part of the disputed territories contested between the Kurds and Arabs covered by Article 140 of Iraqi constitution.
Following the 2003 Iraq war, Hawijah became a hotbed of activity for extremist groups such as the Naqshabandi, Al-Qaeda and other groups. In 2013, the people of the district held large demonstrations and set up semi- permanent camps, protesting against the policies of the Prime Minister Nouri Maliki at the time. The protesters demanded the end of discrimination against the Sunni population in the area and for the release of thousands of detainees imprisoned by Maliki’s government. Maliki ordered the arrest of the protesters and on 23rd of April 2013, Iraqi troops attacked the camp which resulted in 50 dead and over 110 wounded. Since IS took over the area in June 2014, over 35,000 civilians have reportedly been displaced to Kirkuk IDP camps with IS policies in the area causing acute suffering for the people of Hawijah.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Iraq Rights Panel to Sue US Coalition over Mosul Deaths
Iraq’s official human rights commission (affiliated with Iraq’s parliament) plans to sue a U.S.-led military coalition which it blames for the death of over 2,000 civilians in the city of Mosul. “Numerous buildings in Western Mosul, residential and commercial, have been destroyed [by coalition airstrikes], while nearly 2,000 bodies remain buried under the rubble,” commission member Wahda al-Jumaili said in a statement. “We are therefore calling on Iraqi prosecution authorities to file an official lawsuit against coalition commanders for these violations of humanitarian law and a failure to discriminate between civilians and combatants,” she added. Al-Jumaili went on to urge Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to launch an immediate investigation “to determine who exactly is responsible for this loss of innocent life”. Hussam Eddin al-Abbar, a member of the provincial council of Nineveh (of which Mosul serves as regional capital), told press that Western Mosul’s Old City in particular had suffered “widespread destruction” as a result of fierce coalition airstrikes.
Economy
Crude oil prices
The Brent oil price remained down on September 10 compared to the previous close. The price of Brent oil was at $53.76 down from $54.49 while U.S. WTI crude was at $47.55 down from $49.09. OPEC decided to extend cuts in oil output by nine months to March 2018, OPEC delegates said, as the producer group battles a global glut of crude after seeing prices halve and revenues drop sharply in the past The cuts are likely to be shared again by a dozen non-members led by top oil producer Russia, which reduced output in tandem with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from January. OPEC and non-OPEC producers on December 10 reached their first deal since 2001 to jointly curtail oil output and ease a global glut after more than two years of low prices that overstretched many budgets and spurred unrest in some countries. With the deal finally signed after almost a year of arguing within the OPEC and mistrust in the willingness of non-OPEC Russia to play ball, the market's focus will now switch to compliance with the agreement. Producers from outside the 13-country group agreed on December 10 to reduce output by 558,000 barrels per day, short of the initial target of 600,000 but still the largest contribution by non-OPEC ever. Oil prices have more than halved in the past two years after Saudi Arabia raised output steeply in an attempt to drive higher-cost producers such as U.S. shale firms out of the market. The plunge in oil to below $50 per barrel - and sometimes even below $30 - from as high as $115 in mid-2014 has helped reduce growth in U.S. shale output.
Al-Abadi discusses 2018 federal budget - emphasis on nurturing private sector
On September 10, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi instructed the Ministry of Finance to conduct a thorough review of the proposed federal budget for 2018. During his meeting with senior figures in the Ministry of Finance al-Abadi stressed "the importance of discussing the budget in 2018 and achieve further reduction of the operational expenses of the three presidencies and ministries. They must also ensure that basic expenses, primary salaries and wages for all workers in the state including pensions are honoured, as well as securing social protection including ration cards, and the maintenance of the requirements of security, defence and medicine. Al-Abadi also encouraged an increase in non-oil revenues by activating the private sector and increasing its productivity.
Iraq Replaces Head Of Oil Marketer Somo - Ministry
The Iraqi Ministry of Oil has said it has dismissed head of Iraqi State Organization for Marketing Oil (SOMO) but he will remain the country’s OPEC governor. The ministry’s spokesman, Asim Jihad, said on September 10 that Falah al-Amri would also remain a consultant for marketing and strategies at the ministry of oil. Alaa al-Yasiri would become the acting head of SOMO, the ministry’s spokesman added. A senior oil ministry official said the decision to replace Amri is a wider plan to appoint new managers at key positions in the ministry. “Minister [Jabar] al-Luaibi has new plans for managing the oil ministry. New plans require new managers and new blood. More decisions will be issued by minister Luaibi soon as part of a reshuffle process to restructure the oil
16 September 2017
ministry,” said the oil official. Minister Luaibi issued an order on September 7 to appoint Ihsan Abul Jabbar as the new chief of the state-run South Oil Company (SOC).
Jordan, Iraq to set up joint industrial zone, trade committee
Jordan and Iraq agreed on 10 September to establish a joint industrial zone on the border between the two countries, and asked companies on both sides to promptly put in place their plans for its implementation. During a meeting in Amman co-chaired by Minister of Industry, Trade and Supply Yaroub Qudah and Iraqi Minister of Industry and Minerals Mohammad Shia' Al Sudani, the two sides also agreed to form a joint Jordanian-Iraqi trade committee chaired by the minister of industry, trade and supply and the Iraqi minister of trade to follow up on the implementation of the free trade agreement that went into effect on 15 March 2013. They also reviewed the list of Jordanian commodities that will be exempted from Iraqi customs fees. Qudah said that the meeting was the fifth between the two sides in less than a year, adding that it reflects the keenness of the two countries to further cement bilateral cooperation in various fields. The meeting, he added, was to follow up on what had been agreed upon during a meeting of the Joint Jordanian-Iraqi Joint Committee in Baghdad last March. The minister said Jordan would place its economic expertise at the service of the Iraqi side, mainly in developing the industry and supporting small-and-medium sized projects as well as exports. The Iraqi minister said his country is also keen to further promote its economic relations with Jordan through increasing trade exchange, especially after the reopening of the Turaibeel border crossing, and work to set up investment projects.
House of Representatives Speaker Meets US Ambassador
US Ambassador to Baghdad, Douglas Silliman said that the unity of Iraq in facing Islamic State is an important step towards restoring stability and security in all regions of the country. "The president of the council, Salim al- Jubouri, met on September 11 with US Ambassador Douglas Silliman, who expressed his country's keenness to support Iraq in its fight against terrorism," a statement issued by Jubouri's office said, added "The Iraqi unity against Daesh terrorist organization is an important step towards restoring stability and security to all regions of the country. For his part, Jubouri said "The liberation of the remaining areas requires more coordination between Iraq and the international coalition to end the presence of the terrorist organizations on Iraqi soil, and start the reconstruction of the destroyed cities and the return of displaced people to their areas as soon as possible." Jubouri added: "The post-Daesh requires concerted efforts of everyone locally and internationally and provide all the necessary supplies to start the reconstruction of destroyed cities and provide basic services and work to bring the displaced to their areas". During the meeting, the two sides reviewed the most important political and security developments in the region and the issue of the referendum in the Kurdistan region, as well as the joint coordination in the file of combating terrorism and the war against the terrorist organization, as well as the reconstruction of the liberated areas and the return of displaced persons.
The World Bank allocates $200 million to support stability in liberated areas
The Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs announced that the World Bank has allocated $200 million to implement an emergency project to support stability in the liberated areas. An official spokesman for the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs stated that “the World Bank has allocated $200 million for the implementation of the emergency project to support the stability of the liberated areas, as it will be coordinated with the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers and the ministries of planning, health and work for the purpose of implementing paragraphs of this project”.
Gulf companies looking to participate in reconstruction of Iraq
An official in the Arabian Gulf has stated that construction companies and others in the Gulf Cooperation Council look forward to participating in reconstruction projects in Iraq, stressing that it has the potential to qualify for this role. Abdul Rahim Naqi, secretary-general of the Council of Chambers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stated that the Gulf States have made significant progress in many fields, including communications, construction and tourism. Naqi said that if the Iraqi government supported the use of the private sector in the reconstruction of Iraq then Gulf companies would be looking for investment opportunities in the field of construction and reconstruction in Iraq
Naqi further stated that the stability and development of Iraq is a strategic goal not only for the Gulf States, but for all countries in the Middle East and the world, and stated that the GCC countries will not delay in supporting the reconstruction process in Iraq. He added that “there are many areas that can be supported by the Gulf States in the sister country of Iraq, the transport sector of various types, the telecommunications and technology sector, the tourism sector, construction and construction, finance sector, education and training, health, these areas achieved by the Gulf countries “The Iraqi government can benefit from the experiences of the Gulf states in these areas”. COMMENT: An international donor conference under the auspices of the World Bank is scheduled to be held in Kuwait in early 2018 to discuss reconstruction projects in Iraq, after the liberation of most of the areas from IS. An Iraqi official said last week that the cost of reconstruction in Iraq was estimated by the World Bank at about $150 billion. COMMENT ENDS.
King of Jordan: Opening of Trebil is an important step towards the implementation of the oil pipeline
Jordan’s King Abdullah II stated on September 14 that “the reopening of the Trebil crossing, the vital artery between Jordan and Iraq, is an important step towards boosting trade and investment between the two countries, an opportunity for the Jordanian industrial, commercial and financial sector to rise and overall exports to increase”. He expressed his hope that “the pace and volume of the flow of goods and exports will increase and that bilateral trade will regain its previous levels, and even more, as we move towards the implementation of the oil line between the two countries.” “We are working with all our energies to open up new and unconventional export markets to our national products, particularly in Eastern Africa and to enhance investment opportunities with India and China,” he said. In related reporting, the Ministry of Agriculture has reportedly started to grant approvals for the import of agricultural products through the Trebil border crossing.
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Countrywide Military/Security Situation Northern Provinces (Kirkuk/Salah al-Din/Diyala)
Operations to clear Tal Afar district and surrounding areas are continuing, with some significant engagements between IS militants and ISF or PMU forces highlighting the residual presence of militant groupings. The engagements comprised various incident types including lower-level SAF attacks and IEDs, alongside much more substantial attacks involving suicide attackers and in some cases vehicles. There were a number of notable inciednts, including on September 10, when a Turkish female suicide attacker who intended to detonate her explosive vest targeting ISF in Ayadiyah, north of Tal Afar, was persuaded to surrender and was subsequently arrested. COMMENT: ‘The incident emerged as it was reported that 30 female IS members are thought to have detonated themselves during ISF operations to retake west Mosul. Many of those intending to be suicide bombers arrested lately have been foreign nationals, including Europeans.’ COMMENT ENDS. On September 11, eight militants were killed in a failed IS attack in Mahalabiya, east of Tal Afar. The same day Kurdish Peshmerga commanders announced they killed 17 ISIS militants as Iraqi forces continue to find and flush bands of IS militants out of villages like Qasab al-Rai. On September 14, 12 IS suicide attackers killed in clashes with PMF in Abu Raseen village of Qairawan, southwest of Tal Afar.
Elsewhere in Nineveh, security in the west of the province along the border with Syria remains fragile. On September 12, PMU supported by Iraqi army helicopters managed to destroy an IS convoy consisting of 13
technical vehicles as they attempted to infiltrate into Tal Asfuk area near the Syrian border in western Nineveh. Two days later, PMU reported repelling a large-scale IS attack near the Iraq-Syria border, which lasted for two hours and resulted in two vehicles destroyed.
Nonetheless, the return of IDPs continues in the province, about 3,000 Christians were able to return to their homes in Hamdaniyah and Tel Saqf, east of Mosul. To the west, efforts are also continuing in Tal Afar to clear unexploded ordnance, and the Ministry of Communications and Education has prepared plans to rehabilitate the communications system and destroyed schools in Tal Afar district. The Norwegian Refugee Council has been appointed by the UN to rebuild a number of schools, with authorities aiming for most to be re-opened for the 2017/2018 academic year.
In Kirkuk province, most reporting related to the upcoming referendum in the KRG. The majority of reporting related to Hawijah pertained to airstrikes killing key IS figures, including 12 working for IS media outlet Amaq in Riyadh, and an IS security chief, known as Abu Omar al-Iraqi in Hawijah. The intensity of airstrikes has reportedly increased this week, in anticipation of the forthcoming operation to clear the area. There was also one reported instance of infighting, a continuing theme in the Hawijah pocket. IS reportedly killed a commander called Abu Moussa al-Shami, and arrested three other Arab militants in Hawija. COMMENT: ‘This is likely related to ongoing infighting between local and foreign fighters in the IS-held enclave.’ COMMENT ENDS. In Kirkuk politics, this week parliament in Baghdad dismissed the Kurdish governor of Iraq's ethnically-mixed Kirkuk province upon a request from the prime minister. The move came after Kirkuk's provincial council voted to take part in a referendum on Kurdish independence slated for later this month.
Following last week’s busy period in Salah ad Din, it was more subdued this week. Although the Al-Abbas PMU reported repelling another IS attack near the Shia shrine of Sayed Mohammed al Hadi in Balad district. The militants allegedly emanated from Tal al-Dahab and Khudairat villages. A cordon and search operation was launched post-incident following the arrival of reinforcements, with an unspecified number of PMU injured during clashes. COMMENT: ‘The shrine of Sayed Mohammed was attacked last Friday by three suicide attackers, which resulted in Al-Abbas PMU announcing that reinforcements would be deployed to the area.’ COMMENT ENDS.
It was another relatively subdued week in Diyala, although early in the period ISF commenced major security operations in the northeast of the province. During a security operation launched in the Zalu valley, 35km northeast of Muqdadiyah, 13 IEDs were disarmed, nine militants killed and one safe-house destroyed The following day Iraqi police forces killed 14 Islamic State militants between Imam Ways and Naft Khan, in the northeast of the province, who had reportedly fled Tal Afar. COMMENT: ‘The security operation was conducted on two separate axes, and aimed to clear areas that could potentially provide havens for Sunni militant cells operating in the northeast of the province.’ COMMENT ENDS.
This morning, a large operation was reportedly launched on two axes to clear the Akashat region of western Anbar. Yesterday there were further reports of reinforcements being sent to Rutbah to participate, with elements of the 39th Brigade joining the recently redeployed 10th Infantry Division. COMMENT: ‘ISF engineers have reportedly cleared large numbers of IEDs during the advance, which is being heavily supported by artillery and air strikes. Also, thousands of leaflets were dropped in Akashat, Rawa, Anah and al-Qaim calling for IS militants to surrender. Last week, it was reported that Sunni tribal militia and ISF had deployed into the desert in western Anbar to cut links between Akashat and Anah. An increase in the intensity of artillery and airstrikes was also noted, as the offensive to clear the Upper Euphrates Valley and the towns of Anah, Rawa and al-Qaim is awaited. ISF reinforcements also reportedly arrived in the al-Sagra area west of Haditha.’ COMMENT ENDS.
The displacement of civilians from these IS-held areas continues, although the reprisal for capture by IS is usually death. This week, an official told media sources that 165 families had arrived in Rutbah having fled al- Qaim district. A further 750 displaced also arrived at the 18 Kilo IDP camp from al-Qaim, Anah and Rawa. One of those who escaped al-Qaim stated that three youths were executed and seven families were arrested by IS militants in the desert near Akashat as they tried to flee.
In provincial politics, the new Anbar Governor Mohammed Rikan al-Halbousi (al-Hal party) was officially appointed by President Masum during the week. Halbousi was voted in by the Anbar Provincial Council on August 29 following the ouster of his predecessor by council vote.
Capital Region (Baghdad City)
There were notable incidents this week in Baghdad. The first involved what appeared to be a motorcycle-borne explosive device behind a police station in eastern Baghdad, while shortly after that incident, three rounds of IDF impacted in central Baghdad. Aside from this, routine low-level incidents were recorded across the capital.
On September 13 at around 2200hrs, a ‘tuk tuk’ three-wheeled motorcycle apparently rigged with explosives detonated behind Muthanna police station in Zayouna, east Baghdad. Two persons were killed and three injured. COMMENT: ‘This may not have been linked to Sunni militant activity, and has so far not been claimed by IS. There are conflicting reports as to the nature of the device, and the possible motivations behind the incident. The police station behind which the device exploded was recently at the centre of a corruption scandal involving the escape of a senior Ministry of Agriculture employee, with the aid of a serving MP’s security detail.’ COMMENT ENDS.
At approximately 0215hrs on September 14, three rounds of IDF (107mm rockets) impacted in central Baghdad. One rocket impacted in Jadriyah in Karada, near PMU trailers, with the other two rockets impacting near the perimeter of the US Embassy in the International Zone. The firing point was assessed to be in Sadr City in eastern Baghdad. There were no casualties. Approximately an hour after the IDF attack, ISF cleared a three- wheeled ‘tuk tuk’ motorcycle (known locally as a ‘Satota’) carrying five Katyusha rocket tubes including two rockets which were still in their firing tubes, in the Siyana Road area of Sadr City. COMMENT: ‘IDF is rare in Baghdad, and especially so in the metropolitan area. It is typically associated with Shia militant elements, and the seizure of the Tuk Tuk near the assessed firing point makes this almost a certainty in this case. The US Embassy in the IZ would appear to be the target, and it is most likely the attack was intended as a statement to
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highlight opposition to the upcoming Kurdish referendum, the same day a high-level meeting of diplomats occurred in the KRG. Senior US Embassy diplomats along with U.S. Special Presidential Envoy to the Coalition, Brett McGurk, and UN officials were in northern Iraq holding a meeting about the referendum. There are also media reports that Iranian IRGC Quds Force General Qassim Soleimani has been in Erbil to warn local officials against the forthcoming referendum. Aside from this there is no other obvious motivation for an attack. Generally, it is perceived that ‘the west’, or at least some elements of the international community, supports the upcoming Kurdish referendum. Therefore, it is possible that this limited IDF attack toward the US Embassy would be seen to provide a timely message.’ COMMENT ENDS.
There was notable ISF activity reported during the period. During a raid on a house in Zayouna in eastern Baghdad, ISF reported the seizure of a cache of weapons containing a PK machine gun, two AK-variant rifles, one pistol, fake stamps, two electronic jamming devices, one drone, military uniforms, four sets of body armour, and paperwork of several vehicles apparently linked to IS. Also in Suleik neighbourhood in northern Baghdad, a former resident of Nineveh province was arrested in a counter-terror raid.
Also this week, Prime Minister Abadi has reportedly ordered the removal of checkpoints in Karada district in central Baghdad, as part of efforts to continue ‘normalisation’ in the city. The removals are designed to ease congestion, in an often slow process of normalisation that has been ongoing since 2012.
Provincial Baghdad witnessed typically levels of activity, with incidents predominantly occurring to the north, west and south of the capital.
Unusually, there was an incidence of IDF in Radwaniyah, in the southwest of the province. Three mortar rounds impacted near a house in Radhwaniyah, injuring three people. It is unclear what the motivation was, although tribal feuding cannot be ruled out. IDF is rare even in Baghdad’s more restive Sunni belt areas.
Most activity associated with Sunni militancy occurred in Tarmiyah district to the north and in Abu Ghraib to the west. To the west of the capital, IEDs targeted civilians and ISF in Abu Ghraib. North of Baghdad, ISF remain the predominant target in Tarmiyah, where IED and SAF incidents were reported.
Southern Provinces
The south was subjected to two high-impact attacks during the period, including a VBIED at a checkpoint in Musayyib in northern Babel, and a complex attack on Route Tampa, 25km northwest of Nasiriyah.
In Babel province, ISF opened fire at a vehicle rigged as a VBIED as it approached Shahid Alaa checkpoint in Musayyib, causing it to detonate, killing one policeman and injured 16 civilians. The two militants in the vehicle were also killed. The incident was followed by three mortar rounds impacting in the vicinity of a checkpoint in jurf al-Sakhar, resulting in the implementation of a curfew. COMMENT: ‘This is the first major attack in the Musayyib area since an SVIED attacker detonated his explosive vest at the entrance to a market in Musayyib in June. However, this does come amid an upsurge in Sunni militant violence in nearby Jurf al-Nasr (Jurf al-Sakhr) sub- district in recent weeks, which has historically been a major Sunni militant support zone.’ COMMENT ENDS.
In Dhi Qar on September 14, a complex attack involving gunmen wearing PMU uniforms in suicide vests and a VBIED on Fidak restaurant, and a nearby checkpoint on Route Tampa/Highway 1, 25km northwest of Nasiriyah, killed 84 and injured 93. Accounts of the incident vary, but it would seem that the gunmen attacked the restaurant and rest stop, and once they had expended all ammunition, they detonated their explosive vests. Shortly after, a VBIED then detonated at the nearby security checkpoint. At least seven of the dead and 10 of the injured were Iranian pilgrims travelling to Karbala. COMMENT: ‘Roadside restaurants have been targeted previously in the southern provinces, especially if they are known to be frequented by Iranian pilgrims or security forces. This attack reiterates the retained intent and capability of Sunni militants to conduct major attacks in the southern regions. The last such incidents occurred on May 19 when two VBIEDs detonated on Route Tampa in
Basra province, and there were also suicide attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9. However, the capability of Sunni militants to initiate a sustained campaign of violence in the south is extremely limited, as the region is considered non-permissive due to demographics. The security posture of ISF in the south has been increased, and the threat will remain heightened as the holy month of Muharram which commences on September 21, and Ashura on September 29/30, approach. There was also political fallout with a number of statements condemning the government from leaders including Moqtada al-Sadr and Ammar al-Hakim. The Director of Intelligence in Dhi Qar was relieved of his post following an emergency meeting of the provincial council’s security committee.’ COMMENT ENDS.
The attack in Dhi Qar came just a day after Prime Minister Abadi had visited Nasiriyah. During the visit, dozens of employees on temporary contracts working at Nasiriyah Gas Power Plant reportedly attempted to stage a demonstration outside the provincial council building, to protest delays in the payment of their salaries. This was shortly prior to the arrival of the Prime Minister to the area to meet with local officials, and two persons were injured in a confrontation with riot police.
In Basra province, there were a number of tribal clashes reported through the week. On September 13, in the Shafi area of al-Dayr north of Basra. COMMENT: ‘Transit along Route Topeka was reportedly affected for a period.’ COMMENT ENDS. One person was killed in a tribal shooting in al-Abelah neighborhood in northern Basra city; the victim received two bullets in the chest. There was also a fatal tribal shooting in Hayyaniyah the day before. On September 15, tribal fighting shortly after midnight in Abu Sukhair resulted in the deployment of ISF to the area.
Also, two Christian brothers from Baghdad kidnapped in Maysan and being moved to Basra were released and their six kidnappers arrested and one wounded during a raid by the Falcon Cell in an undisclosed location on September 10. The captors had demanded a $200k ransom for their release. COMMENT: ‘The ransom was well in excess of that typically demanded, and was likely due to one of the men being employed as a photographer by Iraqia, the state-run broadcaster. The victims were travelling in a Taxi to Basra to attend the ‘International Legends’ football match at Sports City stadium southwest of Basra. It was also reported that one of the kidnappers was a policeman.’ COMMENT ENDS.
In Maysan, unidentified gunmen opened fire on the private residence of a local journalist in Amarah, a few hours after an article was published criticising the displaying of pictures of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei in the province. There was also a significant tribal clash in Amarah, where on the evening of September 14, tribal fighting was reported in the Hay al-Khadra area. Three individuals are reported to have been injured, and the dispute continued into the next day. It is believed to be linked to a previous attack. Provincial authorities have intervened to try and broker a truce.
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16 September 2017
Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
16 September 2017
Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
16 September 2017
Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld [3] garda.com/ips
OUTLOOK
Short term outlook
- The likelihood of attempted high-profile attacks into population centres in the north, west and capital regions remains elevated as IS reverts to an insurgency following territorial losses. These will likely be constrained by security footprint, particularly in Baghdad, with attacks most likely to strike secondary or opportunistic targets in outlying districts. IS may also attempt to increase their attack tempo in eastern Anbar, with the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah likely to be key targets for high-profile attacks.
- A complex attack in western Dhi Qar on September 14 exhibits IS retains intent and capability for substantial attacks in the southern provinces. The region remains assessed as non-permissive for IS to significantly escalate operations due to demographics, with the few Sunni militant sympathizers in the region remaining isolated. Other major attacks in the south so far this year include two SVBIED attacks in Basra province on May 19 and SVIED attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9.
- The security footprint and other local factors in the central and southern regions, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the type reported in the north and the west of the country. The threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province.
Medium to long term outlook
- In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk. It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates.
- Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country. In the long-term, there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS.
- While operations in the north have refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant.
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
Al-Abadi discusses 2018 federal budget - emphasis on nurturing private sector
On September 10, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi instructed the Ministry of Finance to conduct a thorough review of the proposed federal budget for 2018. During his meeting with senior figures in the Ministry of Finance al-Abadi stressed "the importance of discussing the budget in 2018 and achieve further reduction of the operational expenses of the three presidencies and ministries.
Coalition, Iraqi Jets step up airstrikes on IS-held Hawijah
The Iraqi Air Force and the US-led coalition against IS have increased airstrikes on IS positions in the town of Hawijah, according to Iraq's minister of defence. Erfan al-Hayali stated that ISF were working very closely with the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the US-led coalition ahead of the upcoming operation for the liberation of Hawijah.
IS claims attacks on Shia in southern Iraq
IS has said it carried out attacks targeting Shia Muslims in southern Iraq. The group's news outlet Amaq said IS militants carried out a suicide bombing and "commando" attacks on a restaurant and checkpoint northwest of Nasiriya city on a main road linking with Basra to its south.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Political
Iraqi parliament votes to dismiss Kirkuk governor
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The Iraqi parliament has voted to sack Najmiddin Karim, governor of Kirkuk Province, north of Baghdad. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had asked parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri to include the dismissal of Karim on its agenda. Karim's office subsequently issued a statement saying that the governor would continue in his post because "the decision by the Iraqi Council of Representatives is invalid and only the Kirkuk Governorate Council can remove the governor from his post". COMMENT: ‘The firing of the governor is due to his decision to include
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Kirkuk in the forthcoming Kurdistan independence referendum on September 25th. The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government has denounced Baghdad’s decision saying that the Iraqi parliament "has no right to dismiss Kirkuk's governor". On 11 September, Karim said that the Kurdish independence referendum, slated for 25 September, would be held in the province, stressing that the step would have no impact on the peaceful coexistence among the different populations of Kirkuk.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Ex-Iraqi Minister arrested in Beirut
Lebanese security services arrested have reportedly arrested the former Iraqi trade minister, Abdul-Fallah al- Sudani, who is convicted of corruption. Sudani, who is wanted by Interpol, was arrested in Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport on September 10. In 2012, Sudani was convicted of embezzlement in absentia and sentenced to seven years in jail. As a leader in the former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shi'ite Dawa Party, he served as trade minister 2006-2009. After he was accused by the Integrity Board of corruption, he attempted to flee but was arrested in Baghdad Airport. He was then released on bail and later escaped the country.
Security
IS claims attacks on Shia in southern Iraq
IS has said it carried out attacks targeting Shia Muslims in southern Iraq. The group's news outlet Amaq said IS militants carried out a suicide bombing and "commando" attacks on a restaurant and checkpoint northwest of Nasiriya city on a main road linking with Basra to its south. Meanwhile, the director-general of Iran's Hajj Organisation, Mohsen Nezafati said three Iranian pilgrims were killed and four injured in the attack. Nezafati said in addition to two Hajj caravans belonging to the Hajj Organisation other Iranian Hajj caravans were also present at the scene and "there is a possibility that more Iranian pilgrims are dead or injured". COMMENT: ‘A group of unidentified gunmen stormed Fidak restaurant on Highway 1, approximately 25km northwest of Nasiriyah (Dhi Qar governorate), on September 14. Soon after, a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) detonated at a nearby military checkpoint. At least 84 people were killed during the twin attacks, and at least 93 people were injured. At least half of the victims were likely Iranian pilgrims en route to the holy city of Karbala.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Islamic State arrests six Kurdish members in Hawija
Islamic State has arrested six of its Kurdish members, including a leader, in the southwest of Kirkuk, a paramilitary official said on September 15. “IS arrested six members of its so-called Halabja group, including a leader - all of the members were Kurdish and had taken part in several attacks in Kirkuk over the past months” the official added. “The arrests took place in the aftermath of clashes between Halabja group and IS militants on the boundaries of Hawija”. “The reasons behind the clashes are unknown yet, however, conflicts among the militants are clearly ongoing in the region”.
Security forces foil terrorist attack in western Baghdad
Security forces have foiled an attack that targeted the house of an Iraqi senior officer in Hay al-Kahera district western Baghdad. In a statement, the department said, “intelligence of the 44th brigade, in cooperation with the national security agency noticed a suspect while attempting to place an IED a house of an Interior Ministry officer in al-Qahira district, north of Baghdad” “The suspect was besieged before getting arrested,” the department said. Explosive experts were summoned to defuse the bomb.
Iraqi tribal leader says IS militants surrender in Shirqat
An Iraqi tribal leader has said that more than 50 IS militants surrendered to the security authorities north of Baghdad. "A group of notables from Al-Shirqat tribes led an ideological, national initiative to urge Daesh members and those involved with them in several villages in the eastern side of Shirqat to surrender to security services," Sheikh Dia al-Ghadab told press on 9 September. "The initiative was widely welcomed by IS relatives
Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
16 September 2017
and those involved with them. They responded to it in coordination with the security and intelligence services," al-Ghadab said. Iraqi security forces are preparing an offensive to recapture the eastern areas of Shirqat from IS in parallel with another operation to drive IS militants from Hawija in Kirkuk province, north of Baghdad. The army said that its warplanes had dropped thousands of leaflets on Shirqat and Hawija, urging IS militants to surrender.
IS claims attack in eastern Mosul
IS has claimed a rare attack against "Iraqi intelligence elements" in eastern Mosul. On 9 September, IS's news outlet Amaq reported that an armed attack in Mosul's Al-Nour neighbourhood had killed "six members of the Iraqi intelligence services". This is the first attack that IS has claimed since 25 July, when the group said it had killed an Iraqi officer and an intelligence agent in eastern Mosul. In a separate Amaq report, IS also claimed to have destroyed a vehicle carrying Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) with an IED north of Mosul.
Coalition, Iraqi Jets step up airstrikes on IS-held Hawijah
The Iraqi Air Force and the US-led coalition against IS have increased airstrikes on IS positions in the town of Hawijah, according to Iraq's minister of defence. Erfan al-Hayali stated that ISF were working very closely with the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the US-led coalition ahead of the upcoming operation for the liberation of Hawijah. The minister added that the US-led coalition stepped up its airstrikes, targeting the IS-held areas in the enclave in order to prepare for the liberation of the town. Coalition aircraft destroyed IS headquarters and weapons caches in Khuzafy, Al-Qsilana, Umm Qasir and other sites in Hawijah district, killing seven and wounding four other members of the organization. In related reporting, IS militants abducted five residents of Hawijah on charges of collaborating with the security forces and took them to a detention centre in Hawijah town. Three young men had previously been executed on charges of cooperating with the security forces. Meanwhile, latest reporting indicates more IS militants and their families are attempting to flee the enclave ahead of the imminent battle on the city, and many have succeeded in leaving. Iraqi PM Haider al-Abadi stated that the restoration of Hawijah requires coordination with the Peshmerga forces of the Kurdistan Region, stressing however that recapturing of the city is the task of the Iraqi forces alone.
17 IS militants killed in coalition shelling in Anbar – Renewed ISF offensive operations may start September 20
More than seventeen IS members were killed in airstrikes in western Anbar, a security source said. “On September 10, U.S-led Coalition jets bombarded IS locations in Qaim, Annah and Rawa, west of Anbar. Seventeen IS members, including leader, Mohamed Abboud Abd Manaf, were killed in the Wadi al-Kasr region, located between Annah and Rawa. The IS member in charge of the group’s prisons in Qaim, known as Farhan Rafiq Eteiwy, was also killed. On September 9, Coalition jets also reportedly bombarded three booby-trapped vehicles in several regions in Annah, killing a number of militants. Military operations, backed by the US-led coalition and the Shia PMUs to recapture Hawijah in Kirkuk Governorate, al-Shirqat neighbourhood in Salah al Din Governorate and cities in western Anbar, will be launched concurrently on September 20, according to observers.
Iraq holding hundreds of foreign IS family members
Iraqi forces are holding more than 1,300 foreign women and children, the families of IS militants, at a camp for displaced people in northern Iraq. The 1,333 individuals, from 14 countries, surrendered to Kurdish forces at the end of August after an Iraqi offensive drove the extremist group from the northern town of Tal Afar, Iraqi security officials said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity in keeping with military protocol. They say the women and children will not be charged with crimes and will likely be repatriated to their home countries. Most hail from Central Asia, Russia and Turkey, but the group also includes people from as far away as Japan and South Korea.
30 Islamic State women have committed suicide bombings in Mosul
Thirty Islamic State women members have detonated themselves during engagements with the group in western Mosul, according to a senior Iraqi commander. Twelve others had been arrested recently and referred to justice,
according to a spokesman of the army’s Counter-Terrorism Service. He said those arrested lately included French, German, Chechnyan, Iranian, Moroccan and Tunisian nationals. The commander also said that ISF had managed to convince only two women not to proceed with their suicide attacks, while attempts with the other 30 were futile.
Military reinforcements arrive in Ramadi to retake western Anbar cities
ISF reinforcements from the army's 8th division have arrived in Al Asad Airbase in Ramadi district in preparation for retaking Annah, Rawa, and Qai'm cities from IS in western Anbar Governorate, a security source said on September 11. He added that the 30th Brigade will participate in the operation, along with Iraqi army and security forces. In addition, the Iraqi army's 7th division arrived in the Al-Sakra area, west of Haditha, 190km west of Ramadi. Meanwhile, air strikes by Iraqi air force have reportedly killed scores of IS militants in Al-Qaim district near the Syrian border. The army's War Media Cell said that the strikes had destroyed arms depots and a workshop used by IS for preparing booby-trapped vehicles in the district.
Humanitarian
Over 100,000 civilians flee Hawijah
The Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights has estimated the number of displaced civilians from Hawijah at 101,000 between August 2016 to September 2017. In a statement on September 11, the observatory said, “most of the displaced civilians from Hawijah headed to the villages in its vicinity or to Kirkuk”. According to the statement, the residents “fled due to violations committed by IS, in addition to U.S.-led Coalition’s airstrikes targeting the group’s headquarters located in the residential areas”. “More than 1,700 families from Hawijah are there in Daquq camp in Kirkuk, where most of the residents fleeing IS are sheltered alongside displaced people from Baaj and some regions in Nineveh”, the observatory said.
COMMENT: ‘Hawijah and other neighbouring regions, west of Kirkuk, have been held by IS since mid-2014, when the group emerged to proclaim an Islamic “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria. The group executed dozens of civilians and security members there, forcing thousands to flee homes. Earlier this month, news reports said 100,000 civilians are currently besieged in Hawijah by IS and that the insurgents could use them as human shields during the forthcoming IS offensive. Further reinforcements from the Federal Police were sent earlier this month from Baghdad to the town, as ISF declared the end of operations in Tal Afar, and the approach of the launch of the offensive to retake the enclave. The United Nations has predicted at least 114,000 civilians will flee Hawijah as the battle starts. Spokesman for the Iraqi Joint Operations Command Yehia Rasool stated last week that there were around 2,000 IS militants inside Hawijah.
Hawijah is the biggest district in Iraq that has been under IS rule since June 2014 and forms 32% of the Kirkuk province. Hawijah became a district in 1961 and majority of its residents are Arabs with a Kurdish minority. There are several tribes: Obaid, Jabur, Shamar, Naimi, Delemi and Hadidi in the Hawijah district which had a population of 320,000 people in 2014 census. Hawijah is an important centre of agriculture in Iraq and produces vegetables and fruits as well as wheat and barley. It has also been a hotspot for violence and is considered part of the disputed territories contested between the Kurds and Arabs covered by Article 140 of Iraqi constitution.
Following the 2003 Iraq war, Hawijah became a hotbed of activity for extremist groups such as the Naqshabandi, Al-Qaeda and other groups. In 2013, the people of the district held large demonstrations and set up semi- permanent camps, protesting against the policies of the Prime Minister Nouri Maliki at the time. The protesters demanded the end of discrimination against the Sunni population in the area and for the release of thousands of detainees imprisoned by Maliki’s government. Maliki ordered the arrest of the protesters and on 23rd of April 2013, Iraqi troops attacked the camp which resulted in 50 dead and over 110 wounded. Since IS took over the area in June 2014, over 35,000 civilians have reportedly been displaced to Kirkuk IDP camps with IS policies in the area causing acute suffering for the people of Hawijah.’ COMMENT ENDS.
Iraq Rights Panel to Sue US Coalition over Mosul Deaths
Iraq’s official human rights commission (affiliated with Iraq’s parliament) plans to sue a U.S.-led military coalition which it blames for the death of over 2,000 civilians in the city of Mosul. “Numerous buildings in Western Mosul, residential and commercial, have been destroyed [by coalition airstrikes], while nearly 2,000 bodies remain buried under the rubble,” commission member Wahda al-Jumaili said in a statement. “We are therefore calling on Iraqi prosecution authorities to file an official lawsuit against coalition commanders for these violations of humanitarian law and a failure to discriminate between civilians and combatants,” she added. Al-Jumaili went on to urge Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to launch an immediate investigation “to determine who exactly is responsible for this loss of innocent life”. Hussam Eddin al-Abbar, a member of the provincial council of Nineveh (of which Mosul serves as regional capital), told press that Western Mosul’s Old City in particular had suffered “widespread destruction” as a result of fierce coalition airstrikes.
Economy
Crude oil prices
The Brent oil price remained down on September 10 compared to the previous close. The price of Brent oil was at $53.76 down from $54.49 while U.S. WTI crude was at $47.55 down from $49.09. OPEC decided to extend cuts in oil output by nine months to March 2018, OPEC delegates said, as the producer group battles a global glut of crude after seeing prices halve and revenues drop sharply in the past The cuts are likely to be shared again by a dozen non-members led by top oil producer Russia, which reduced output in tandem with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from January. OPEC and non-OPEC producers on December 10 reached their first deal since 2001 to jointly curtail oil output and ease a global glut after more than two years of low prices that overstretched many budgets and spurred unrest in some countries. With the deal finally signed after almost a year of arguing within the OPEC and mistrust in the willingness of non-OPEC Russia to play ball, the market's focus will now switch to compliance with the agreement. Producers from outside the 13-country group agreed on December 10 to reduce output by 558,000 barrels per day, short of the initial target of 600,000 but still the largest contribution by non-OPEC ever. Oil prices have more than halved in the past two years after Saudi Arabia raised output steeply in an attempt to drive higher-cost producers such as U.S. shale firms out of the market. The plunge in oil to below $50 per barrel - and sometimes even below $30 - from as high as $115 in mid-2014 has helped reduce growth in U.S. shale output.
Al-Abadi discusses 2018 federal budget - emphasis on nurturing private sector
On September 10, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi instructed the Ministry of Finance to conduct a thorough review of the proposed federal budget for 2018. During his meeting with senior figures in the Ministry of Finance al-Abadi stressed "the importance of discussing the budget in 2018 and achieve further reduction of the operational expenses of the three presidencies and ministries. They must also ensure that basic expenses, primary salaries and wages for all workers in the state including pensions are honoured, as well as securing social protection including ration cards, and the maintenance of the requirements of security, defence and medicine. Al-Abadi also encouraged an increase in non-oil revenues by activating the private sector and increasing its productivity.
Iraq Replaces Head Of Oil Marketer Somo - Ministry
The Iraqi Ministry of Oil has said it has dismissed head of Iraqi State Organization for Marketing Oil (SOMO) but he will remain the country’s OPEC governor. The ministry’s spokesman, Asim Jihad, said on September 10 that Falah al-Amri would also remain a consultant for marketing and strategies at the ministry of oil. Alaa al-Yasiri would become the acting head of SOMO, the ministry’s spokesman added. A senior oil ministry official said the decision to replace Amri is a wider plan to appoint new managers at key positions in the ministry. “Minister [Jabar] al-Luaibi has new plans for managing the oil ministry. New plans require new managers and new blood. More decisions will be issued by minister Luaibi soon as part of a reshuffle process to restructure the oil
16 September 2017
ministry,” said the oil official. Minister Luaibi issued an order on September 7 to appoint Ihsan Abul Jabbar as the new chief of the state-run South Oil Company (SOC).
Jordan, Iraq to set up joint industrial zone, trade committee
Jordan and Iraq agreed on 10 September to establish a joint industrial zone on the border between the two countries, and asked companies on both sides to promptly put in place their plans for its implementation. During a meeting in Amman co-chaired by Minister of Industry, Trade and Supply Yaroub Qudah and Iraqi Minister of Industry and Minerals Mohammad Shia' Al Sudani, the two sides also agreed to form a joint Jordanian-Iraqi trade committee chaired by the minister of industry, trade and supply and the Iraqi minister of trade to follow up on the implementation of the free trade agreement that went into effect on 15 March 2013. They also reviewed the list of Jordanian commodities that will be exempted from Iraqi customs fees. Qudah said that the meeting was the fifth between the two sides in less than a year, adding that it reflects the keenness of the two countries to further cement bilateral cooperation in various fields. The meeting, he added, was to follow up on what had been agreed upon during a meeting of the Joint Jordanian-Iraqi Joint Committee in Baghdad last March. The minister said Jordan would place its economic expertise at the service of the Iraqi side, mainly in developing the industry and supporting small-and-medium sized projects as well as exports. The Iraqi minister said his country is also keen to further promote its economic relations with Jordan through increasing trade exchange, especially after the reopening of the Turaibeel border crossing, and work to set up investment projects.
House of Representatives Speaker Meets US Ambassador
US Ambassador to Baghdad, Douglas Silliman said that the unity of Iraq in facing Islamic State is an important step towards restoring stability and security in all regions of the country. "The president of the council, Salim al- Jubouri, met on September 11 with US Ambassador Douglas Silliman, who expressed his country's keenness to support Iraq in its fight against terrorism," a statement issued by Jubouri's office said, added "The Iraqi unity against Daesh terrorist organization is an important step towards restoring stability and security to all regions of the country. For his part, Jubouri said "The liberation of the remaining areas requires more coordination between Iraq and the international coalition to end the presence of the terrorist organizations on Iraqi soil, and start the reconstruction of the destroyed cities and the return of displaced people to their areas as soon as possible." Jubouri added: "The post-Daesh requires concerted efforts of everyone locally and internationally and provide all the necessary supplies to start the reconstruction of destroyed cities and provide basic services and work to bring the displaced to their areas". During the meeting, the two sides reviewed the most important political and security developments in the region and the issue of the referendum in the Kurdistan region, as well as the joint coordination in the file of combating terrorism and the war against the terrorist organization, as well as the reconstruction of the liberated areas and the return of displaced persons.
The World Bank allocates $200 million to support stability in liberated areas
The Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs announced that the World Bank has allocated $200 million to implement an emergency project to support stability in the liberated areas. An official spokesman for the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs stated that “the World Bank has allocated $200 million for the implementation of the emergency project to support the stability of the liberated areas, as it will be coordinated with the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers and the ministries of planning, health and work for the purpose of implementing paragraphs of this project”.
Gulf companies looking to participate in reconstruction of Iraq
An official in the Arabian Gulf has stated that construction companies and others in the Gulf Cooperation Council look forward to participating in reconstruction projects in Iraq, stressing that it has the potential to qualify for this role. Abdul Rahim Naqi, secretary-general of the Council of Chambers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stated that the Gulf States have made significant progress in many fields, including communications, construction and tourism. Naqi said that if the Iraqi government supported the use of the private sector in the reconstruction of Iraq then Gulf companies would be looking for investment opportunities in the field of construction and reconstruction in Iraq
Naqi further stated that the stability and development of Iraq is a strategic goal not only for the Gulf States, but for all countries in the Middle East and the world, and stated that the GCC countries will not delay in supporting the reconstruction process in Iraq. He added that “there are many areas that can be supported by the Gulf States in the sister country of Iraq, the transport sector of various types, the telecommunications and technology sector, the tourism sector, construction and construction, finance sector, education and training, health, these areas achieved by the Gulf countries “The Iraqi government can benefit from the experiences of the Gulf states in these areas”. COMMENT: An international donor conference under the auspices of the World Bank is scheduled to be held in Kuwait in early 2018 to discuss reconstruction projects in Iraq, after the liberation of most of the areas from IS. An Iraqi official said last week that the cost of reconstruction in Iraq was estimated by the World Bank at about $150 billion. COMMENT ENDS.
King of Jordan: Opening of Trebil is an important step towards the implementation of the oil pipeline
Jordan’s King Abdullah II stated on September 14 that “the reopening of the Trebil crossing, the vital artery between Jordan and Iraq, is an important step towards boosting trade and investment between the two countries, an opportunity for the Jordanian industrial, commercial and financial sector to rise and overall exports to increase”. He expressed his hope that “the pace and volume of the flow of goods and exports will increase and that bilateral trade will regain its previous levels, and even more, as we move towards the implementation of the oil line between the two countries.” “We are working with all our energies to open up new and unconventional export markets to our national products, particularly in Eastern Africa and to enhance investment opportunities with India and China,” he said. In related reporting, the Ministry of Agriculture has reportedly started to grant approvals for the import of agricultural products through the Trebil border crossing.
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Countrywide Military/Security Situation Northern Provinces (Kirkuk/Salah al-Din/Diyala)
Operations to clear Tal Afar district and surrounding areas are continuing, with some significant engagements between IS militants and ISF or PMU forces highlighting the residual presence of militant groupings. The engagements comprised various incident types including lower-level SAF attacks and IEDs, alongside much more substantial attacks involving suicide attackers and in some cases vehicles. There were a number of notable inciednts, including on September 10, when a Turkish female suicide attacker who intended to detonate her explosive vest targeting ISF in Ayadiyah, north of Tal Afar, was persuaded to surrender and was subsequently arrested. COMMENT: ‘The incident emerged as it was reported that 30 female IS members are thought to have detonated themselves during ISF operations to retake west Mosul. Many of those intending to be suicide bombers arrested lately have been foreign nationals, including Europeans.’ COMMENT ENDS. On September 11, eight militants were killed in a failed IS attack in Mahalabiya, east of Tal Afar. The same day Kurdish Peshmerga commanders announced they killed 17 ISIS militants as Iraqi forces continue to find and flush bands of IS militants out of villages like Qasab al-Rai. On September 14, 12 IS suicide attackers killed in clashes with PMF in Abu Raseen village of Qairawan, southwest of Tal Afar.
Elsewhere in Nineveh, security in the west of the province along the border with Syria remains fragile. On September 12, PMU supported by Iraqi army helicopters managed to destroy an IS convoy consisting of 13
technical vehicles as they attempted to infiltrate into Tal Asfuk area near the Syrian border in western Nineveh. Two days later, PMU reported repelling a large-scale IS attack near the Iraq-Syria border, which lasted for two hours and resulted in two vehicles destroyed.
Nonetheless, the return of IDPs continues in the province, about 3,000 Christians were able to return to their homes in Hamdaniyah and Tel Saqf, east of Mosul. To the west, efforts are also continuing in Tal Afar to clear unexploded ordnance, and the Ministry of Communications and Education has prepared plans to rehabilitate the communications system and destroyed schools in Tal Afar district. The Norwegian Refugee Council has been appointed by the UN to rebuild a number of schools, with authorities aiming for most to be re-opened for the 2017/2018 academic year.
In Kirkuk province, most reporting related to the upcoming referendum in the KRG. The majority of reporting related to Hawijah pertained to airstrikes killing key IS figures, including 12 working for IS media outlet Amaq in Riyadh, and an IS security chief, known as Abu Omar al-Iraqi in Hawijah. The intensity of airstrikes has reportedly increased this week, in anticipation of the forthcoming operation to clear the area. There was also one reported instance of infighting, a continuing theme in the Hawijah pocket. IS reportedly killed a commander called Abu Moussa al-Shami, and arrested three other Arab militants in Hawija. COMMENT: ‘This is likely related to ongoing infighting between local and foreign fighters in the IS-held enclave.’ COMMENT ENDS. In Kirkuk politics, this week parliament in Baghdad dismissed the Kurdish governor of Iraq's ethnically-mixed Kirkuk province upon a request from the prime minister. The move came after Kirkuk's provincial council voted to take part in a referendum on Kurdish independence slated for later this month.
Following last week’s busy period in Salah ad Din, it was more subdued this week. Although the Al-Abbas PMU reported repelling another IS attack near the Shia shrine of Sayed Mohammed al Hadi in Balad district. The militants allegedly emanated from Tal al-Dahab and Khudairat villages. A cordon and search operation was launched post-incident following the arrival of reinforcements, with an unspecified number of PMU injured during clashes. COMMENT: ‘The shrine of Sayed Mohammed was attacked last Friday by three suicide attackers, which resulted in Al-Abbas PMU announcing that reinforcements would be deployed to the area.’ COMMENT ENDS.
It was another relatively subdued week in Diyala, although early in the period ISF commenced major security operations in the northeast of the province. During a security operation launched in the Zalu valley, 35km northeast of Muqdadiyah, 13 IEDs were disarmed, nine militants killed and one safe-house destroyed The following day Iraqi police forces killed 14 Islamic State militants between Imam Ways and Naft Khan, in the northeast of the province, who had reportedly fled Tal Afar. COMMENT: ‘The security operation was conducted on two separate axes, and aimed to clear areas that could potentially provide havens for Sunni militant cells operating in the northeast of the province.’ COMMENT ENDS.
This morning, a large operation was reportedly launched on two axes to clear the Akashat region of western Anbar. Yesterday there were further reports of reinforcements being sent to Rutbah to participate, with elements of the 39th Brigade joining the recently redeployed 10th Infantry Division. COMMENT: ‘ISF engineers have reportedly cleared large numbers of IEDs during the advance, which is being heavily supported by artillery and air strikes. Also, thousands of leaflets were dropped in Akashat, Rawa, Anah and al-Qaim calling for IS militants to surrender. Last week, it was reported that Sunni tribal militia and ISF had deployed into the desert in western Anbar to cut links between Akashat and Anah. An increase in the intensity of artillery and airstrikes was also noted, as the offensive to clear the Upper Euphrates Valley and the towns of Anah, Rawa and al-Qaim is awaited. ISF reinforcements also reportedly arrived in the al-Sagra area west of Haditha.’ COMMENT ENDS.
The displacement of civilians from these IS-held areas continues, although the reprisal for capture by IS is usually death. This week, an official told media sources that 165 families had arrived in Rutbah having fled al- Qaim district. A further 750 displaced also arrived at the 18 Kilo IDP camp from al-Qaim, Anah and Rawa. One of those who escaped al-Qaim stated that three youths were executed and seven families were arrested by IS militants in the desert near Akashat as they tried to flee.
In provincial politics, the new Anbar Governor Mohammed Rikan al-Halbousi (al-Hal party) was officially appointed by President Masum during the week. Halbousi was voted in by the Anbar Provincial Council on August 29 following the ouster of his predecessor by council vote.
Capital Region (Baghdad City)
There were notable incidents this week in Baghdad. The first involved what appeared to be a motorcycle-borne explosive device behind a police station in eastern Baghdad, while shortly after that incident, three rounds of IDF impacted in central Baghdad. Aside from this, routine low-level incidents were recorded across the capital.
On September 13 at around 2200hrs, a ‘tuk tuk’ three-wheeled motorcycle apparently rigged with explosives detonated behind Muthanna police station in Zayouna, east Baghdad. Two persons were killed and three injured. COMMENT: ‘This may not have been linked to Sunni militant activity, and has so far not been claimed by IS. There are conflicting reports as to the nature of the device, and the possible motivations behind the incident. The police station behind which the device exploded was recently at the centre of a corruption scandal involving the escape of a senior Ministry of Agriculture employee, with the aid of a serving MP’s security detail.’ COMMENT ENDS.
At approximately 0215hrs on September 14, three rounds of IDF (107mm rockets) impacted in central Baghdad. One rocket impacted in Jadriyah in Karada, near PMU trailers, with the other two rockets impacting near the perimeter of the US Embassy in the International Zone. The firing point was assessed to be in Sadr City in eastern Baghdad. There were no casualties. Approximately an hour after the IDF attack, ISF cleared a three- wheeled ‘tuk tuk’ motorcycle (known locally as a ‘Satota’) carrying five Katyusha rocket tubes including two rockets which were still in their firing tubes, in the Siyana Road area of Sadr City. COMMENT: ‘IDF is rare in Baghdad, and especially so in the metropolitan area. It is typically associated with Shia militant elements, and the seizure of the Tuk Tuk near the assessed firing point makes this almost a certainty in this case. The US Embassy in the IZ would appear to be the target, and it is most likely the attack was intended as a statement to
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highlight opposition to the upcoming Kurdish referendum, the same day a high-level meeting of diplomats occurred in the KRG. Senior US Embassy diplomats along with U.S. Special Presidential Envoy to the Coalition, Brett McGurk, and UN officials were in northern Iraq holding a meeting about the referendum. There are also media reports that Iranian IRGC Quds Force General Qassim Soleimani has been in Erbil to warn local officials against the forthcoming referendum. Aside from this there is no other obvious motivation for an attack. Generally, it is perceived that ‘the west’, or at least some elements of the international community, supports the upcoming Kurdish referendum. Therefore, it is possible that this limited IDF attack toward the US Embassy would be seen to provide a timely message.’ COMMENT ENDS.
There was notable ISF activity reported during the period. During a raid on a house in Zayouna in eastern Baghdad, ISF reported the seizure of a cache of weapons containing a PK machine gun, two AK-variant rifles, one pistol, fake stamps, two electronic jamming devices, one drone, military uniforms, four sets of body armour, and paperwork of several vehicles apparently linked to IS. Also in Suleik neighbourhood in northern Baghdad, a former resident of Nineveh province was arrested in a counter-terror raid.
Also this week, Prime Minister Abadi has reportedly ordered the removal of checkpoints in Karada district in central Baghdad, as part of efforts to continue ‘normalisation’ in the city. The removals are designed to ease congestion, in an often slow process of normalisation that has been ongoing since 2012.
Provincial Baghdad witnessed typically levels of activity, with incidents predominantly occurring to the north, west and south of the capital.
Unusually, there was an incidence of IDF in Radwaniyah, in the southwest of the province. Three mortar rounds impacted near a house in Radhwaniyah, injuring three people. It is unclear what the motivation was, although tribal feuding cannot be ruled out. IDF is rare even in Baghdad’s more restive Sunni belt areas.
Most activity associated with Sunni militancy occurred in Tarmiyah district to the north and in Abu Ghraib to the west. To the west of the capital, IEDs targeted civilians and ISF in Abu Ghraib. North of Baghdad, ISF remain the predominant target in Tarmiyah, where IED and SAF incidents were reported.
Southern Provinces
The south was subjected to two high-impact attacks during the period, including a VBIED at a checkpoint in Musayyib in northern Babel, and a complex attack on Route Tampa, 25km northwest of Nasiriyah.
In Babel province, ISF opened fire at a vehicle rigged as a VBIED as it approached Shahid Alaa checkpoint in Musayyib, causing it to detonate, killing one policeman and injured 16 civilians. The two militants in the vehicle were also killed. The incident was followed by three mortar rounds impacting in the vicinity of a checkpoint in jurf al-Sakhar, resulting in the implementation of a curfew. COMMENT: ‘This is the first major attack in the Musayyib area since an SVIED attacker detonated his explosive vest at the entrance to a market in Musayyib in June. However, this does come amid an upsurge in Sunni militant violence in nearby Jurf al-Nasr (Jurf al-Sakhr) sub- district in recent weeks, which has historically been a major Sunni militant support zone.’ COMMENT ENDS.
In Dhi Qar on September 14, a complex attack involving gunmen wearing PMU uniforms in suicide vests and a VBIED on Fidak restaurant, and a nearby checkpoint on Route Tampa/Highway 1, 25km northwest of Nasiriyah, killed 84 and injured 93. Accounts of the incident vary, but it would seem that the gunmen attacked the restaurant and rest stop, and once they had expended all ammunition, they detonated their explosive vests. Shortly after, a VBIED then detonated at the nearby security checkpoint. At least seven of the dead and 10 of the injured were Iranian pilgrims travelling to Karbala. COMMENT: ‘Roadside restaurants have been targeted previously in the southern provinces, especially if they are known to be frequented by Iranian pilgrims or security forces. This attack reiterates the retained intent and capability of Sunni militants to conduct major attacks in the southern regions. The last such incidents occurred on May 19 when two VBIEDs detonated on Route Tampa in
Basra province, and there were also suicide attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9. However, the capability of Sunni militants to initiate a sustained campaign of violence in the south is extremely limited, as the region is considered non-permissive due to demographics. The security posture of ISF in the south has been increased, and the threat will remain heightened as the holy month of Muharram which commences on September 21, and Ashura on September 29/30, approach. There was also political fallout with a number of statements condemning the government from leaders including Moqtada al-Sadr and Ammar al-Hakim. The Director of Intelligence in Dhi Qar was relieved of his post following an emergency meeting of the provincial council’s security committee.’ COMMENT ENDS.
The attack in Dhi Qar came just a day after Prime Minister Abadi had visited Nasiriyah. During the visit, dozens of employees on temporary contracts working at Nasiriyah Gas Power Plant reportedly attempted to stage a demonstration outside the provincial council building, to protest delays in the payment of their salaries. This was shortly prior to the arrival of the Prime Minister to the area to meet with local officials, and two persons were injured in a confrontation with riot police.
In Basra province, there were a number of tribal clashes reported through the week. On September 13, in the Shafi area of al-Dayr north of Basra. COMMENT: ‘Transit along Route Topeka was reportedly affected for a period.’ COMMENT ENDS. One person was killed in a tribal shooting in al-Abelah neighborhood in northern Basra city; the victim received two bullets in the chest. There was also a fatal tribal shooting in Hayyaniyah the day before. On September 15, tribal fighting shortly after midnight in Abu Sukhair resulted in the deployment of ISF to the area.
Also, two Christian brothers from Baghdad kidnapped in Maysan and being moved to Basra were released and their six kidnappers arrested and one wounded during a raid by the Falcon Cell in an undisclosed location on September 10. The captors had demanded a $200k ransom for their release. COMMENT: ‘The ransom was well in excess of that typically demanded, and was likely due to one of the men being employed as a photographer by Iraqia, the state-run broadcaster. The victims were travelling in a Taxi to Basra to attend the ‘International Legends’ football match at Sports City stadium southwest of Basra. It was also reported that one of the kidnappers was a policeman.’ COMMENT ENDS.
In Maysan, unidentified gunmen opened fire on the private residence of a local journalist in Amarah, a few hours after an article was published criticising the displaying of pictures of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei in the province. There was also a significant tribal clash in Amarah, where on the evening of September 14, tribal fighting was reported in the Hay al-Khadra area. Three individuals are reported to have been injured, and the dispute continued into the next day. It is believed to be linked to a previous attack. Provincial authorities have intervened to try and broker a truce.
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