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Can Turkey be part of the solution in Iraq?
05/3/2018 12:00 am [rtl]Translation - Anis Saffar Tensions between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) escalated following a recent referendum on secession from Iraq in late December. The Iraqi prime minister responded to the move by removing Kurdish forces from disputed areas, including the oil city of Kirkuk, and imposing economic measures that would cause the economy to collapse in the Kurdish autonomous region. It is therefore necessary to hold talks quickly between the parties to prevent further escalation and deterioration, and many agree that this will only be possible through external mediation. Turkey itself is a master of mediation. Under AKP administration, Turkey has used mediation, both in the region and in global conflicts, to extend its influence to international affairs. Turkey has been a leading member of the United Nations "mediation friends" initiative along with Finland. Turkey's efforts to mediate between Palestinian factions, various Iraqi groups, Israel and Syria, Iraq and Syria, and between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, and even in the Somali civil war, have not subsided. However, Ankara's mediation efforts rarely returned with good results. Turkey's lack of pressure on the parties concerned, or because of the image that has gripped the country, has often been the image of the new Ottoman agenda. Despite this, Turkey remains determined to mediate and has recently given signals that it is willing to mediate in the dispute between Baghdad and Erbil. In a statement made recently by Turkish Foreign Minister Mouloud Gawishoglu, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) formally asked Turkey to contribute to the return of water to its streams between Arbil and Baghdad. Gawishoglu is expected to discuss the Turkish role during the bilateral talks he will hold during his visit to Baghdad on December 21 The second. The renewal of talks between Erbil and Baghdad is of great importance to Turkey, because Erbil was among the few allies of Turkey in the region, until the regional government decided to proceed with the referendum resolution. This ally has played a very important role in Turkey's domestic and regional calculations. In its close relationship with Erbil, Ankara sought to restrict Iranian influence in Iraq and was betting on Arbil in its efforts to repel the PKK inside Turkey and the region. The former president of the Kurdish region, Massoud Barzani, was ignoring Turkey's border crossing to carry out operations against the PKK But allowed Ankara to establish military bases in the area and then put them under its control. In those bases, Turkey supervised the training of Peshmerga forces. Turkey has also reported trade with the autonomous region and was the Kurdistan region of Iraq, the third largest market for Turkish exports and a machine equipped with oil and gas. For this reason, Ankara silently dropped its decades-long objection to Kurdish control of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk for its use of oil pumped from Kirkuk through the pipeline, cutting southeast Turkey into the Mediterranean. Turkey was not only charging traffic but was relying on those imports to meet its rapidly rising energy needs. The dynamics of the post-referendum situation have threatened all of these things, but that is of particular concern to Ankara is the possible expectation that the Labor Party will become more powerful due to the absence of Barzani, who played the role of equal weight. The economic measures imposed by Baghdad also threaten the Kurdish economy to collapse, and thus also threaten Turkish interests. Turkey supplies Iraq with consumables via a road that cuts through the Kurdish region, aided by stable merchants in Kurdistan, adding that the region owes Turkey billions of dollars, while Erbil struggles to secure the salaries of its public employees. On the other hand Ankara is looking for investment opportunities in Iraq and gain a foothold in oil fields in southern Iraq, which exceeds the production of oil produced by the fields of Arbil. Ankara wants the two sides to reach a quick agreement so that it can resume its security partnership and the flow of oil continues, so it hopes it can mediate a viable arrangement between Erbil and Baghdad to get a new chance to work with both sides. However, Abadi may not be enthusiastic, neither for Turkish mediation nor for the issue of a quick solution with Erbil. The parliamentary elections are scheduled for next May, and Abadi is now widely popular after the disputed areas have been restored by the Kurdish forces. There are many Iraqis who believe that dealing firmly with the Kurds may ensure that they win a new round in May. This means that he may not be in a mood to make the compromises required to reach a settlement with the Kurds through talks before the elections. Even if he decides to do so, he will not allow Turkey to take a role while he seeks to polish his national and national position. Turkey's lack of confidence in its depth deep in Iraq, and the revelations transmitted by the circles close to the Iraqi government that Turkey may demand the return of Kirkuk and the Mosul as the areas of the former Ottoman state of great concern and discomfort, not only the Iraqi government, but also between the owners of national tendencies and nationalism in Iraq. Turkey's close partnership with the Kurdistan Regional Government in the areas of energy and militarization, its ethnic links with Turkmen in Kirkuk and its relations with senior political players in Mosul all have raised doubts about Turkey's intentions and its aims behind the mediation. Many Iraqis also see Turkey's relations with local players as a violation of their country's sovereignty. Ankara's interventions are not welcomed even among Turkmen, as many of them, despite their cultural and linguistic ties with Turkey, feel they are part of Iraq and see in Turkish interventions that they invoke harmful counter-reactions . For this reason, the presence of Turkish troops in northern Iraq has provoked a strong reaction from Baghdad, which demanded Turkey withdraw its forces immediately. This remains a hotbed of bilateral relations between the two countries. Turkey sees reconciliation between Baghdad and Erbil as a great opportunity for it to win, but remaining part of the problem will not allow it to be part of the solution. * Gonul Toll is director of the Turkish studies department at the Middle East Institute. * Gunnell Toll for National Interest website [/rtl] [rtl][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [/rtl] |
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