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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    expectations of "Stratfor" for 2019 reveals in detail what will "happen" to Iran, Ben Salman and Tur

    Rocky
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    expectations of "Stratfor" for 2019 reveals in detail what will "happen" to Iran, Ben Salman and Tur Empty expectations of "Stratfor" for 2019 reveals in detail what will "happen" to Iran, Ben Salman and Tur

    Post by Rocky Sat 15 Dec 2018, 2:31 am

    [size=32]
    expectations of "Stratfor" for 2019 reveals in detail what will "happen" to Iran, Ben Salman and Turkey[/size]
    expectations of "Stratfor" for 2019 reveals in detail what will "happen" to Iran, Ben Salman and Tur Usa-iran

     Twilight News    

     Friday, 14 December 2018



    Twilight News / website published the American "Stratfor" Institute report, presents its forecast for the year 2019. 
    The institute said that 2019 will see a confrontation between the United States and China in terms of imposing sanctions and tax tariffs on Chinese goods, the largest and support for Taiwan, a strong presence in the South China Sea.
    The report, translated by "Arab21", indicates that the same will be achieved by arms control treaties, as the year will see competition between the United States on the one hand and China and Russia on the other, while the border countries such as Poland and Taiwan may benefit, Which are trying to maintain neutrality, such as Turkey, India and Vietnam, will live a headache.
    The site is likely to witness trade risks, especially in the United States' attempts to pressure Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Australia to build big barriers to Chinese investment. He said the year will see attempts to solve trade problems in a bilateral way after US attempts to disrupt the work of the WTO Global.
     

    The report notes that Mexico, Canada, Japan and North Korea have a better chance of success than US negotiations with the European Union, which is doomed to failure.
     

    Although the US has increased tariffs on China, the final impact on global trade in America will not be significant, he said, pointing to Italy's populist threat to the euro area, as well as the US campaign against Iran.
     

    The report finds that with secondary sanctions ready to be activated, Washington will try to isolate the region and weaken it internally, thus reducing any hope for possible talks between them, pointing out that these policies will protect Saudi Arabia and America's allies, despite Western resentment of the involvement of the Saudi Crown Prince The murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
    The site shows that for the energy market, Saudi Arabia and Russia will try to manage the oil market so as not to decrease its prices, while watching the remaining of Iran's production and export capabilities, there is a possibility to increase the production of Iraqi and Libyan oil, noting that for the LNG market, the market will vibrate with The United States enters it in 2019, being one of the largest exporters of natural gas.
    The report notes that policies in Latin America will be affected by the attempts of the right-wing Brazilian government to contain the crises coming from Venezuela with Colombia. In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia will be driving change, by attracting foreign investment, but internal challenges and ethnic conflicts may be a challenge to the agenda Which the Government seeks.
    As the conflict with the superpowers, China, Russia and the United States, increases, the recent attempts to isolate China will seem limited in 2019. The growing development of the framing and the deterioration of international treaties will lead to an arms race between America, China and Russia.
    Iran
    It is likely that "US sanctions on Iran will not succeed in leading to the collapse of the regime, although it will weaken it. Despite the political rivalry between the ruling parties, it is usually united to maintain the stability of the regime. Reformist movement represented by President Hassan Rowhani. "
    The website stresses that Donald Trump's attempts to increase sanctions on Iran are a means of returning them to the negotiating table, and satisfaction with what America wants will not succeed, pointing out that the security establishment will find the justification for deepening the Iranian defense strategy to face intense pressure.
    "Tehran will try to take revenge in a way that does not lead to a conventional war. It may try to retaliate by harassing the ships of US allies in the Gulf region, testing ballistic missiles, resuming its nuclear tests when necessary, Or to activate its agents in the region and respond to the United States, Israel and the Gulf states, but wants to avoid military attacks against it, and with the decline of European support in 2019, and turning it into mere words, Iran will be ready for reprisals without leading to a conventional war.
    "The United States is strengthening its regional allies through a strategy of weakening Iran, while Washington will rely on two groups of allies whose goals are consistent with it. The first group includes allies worried about Iran and willing to embrace the full US policies - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel , These countries have gone through decades of mistrust, coordinate together in e-warfare, blockade and even military cooperation. The second group of allies includes Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, which in a certain way align themselves with US policy objectives But they are less willing to take radical positions, such as the first group, but it gives the United States diplomatic assistance strategy and economic value to other conflicts in the region, and strengthen alignment between them may ease Kthaqh blockade of Qatar, but the differences that exist between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will continue. "
    Saudi
     

    The report says that "Saudi Arabia has to deal with the growing concerns of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and throughout the next year, following the death of exiled journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the actions of the Crown Prince will be the subject of international scrutiny, and although his position is strong within Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia depends necessarily on the support of his father, King Salman, and there will remain quiet resistance within the royal family accumulate, and some of Riyadh's major allies will reduce their military support and foreign direct investment. However, vital relations will not change. Throughout 2019 ".
    "Riyadh will continue to pursue the goals of Vision 2030 next year and will reduce the austerity measures based on good economic changes, such as high oil prices and the attempt to benefit from the decline in Iranian oil exports and the non-oil sector revenues. Employment, and the state will have to use its money-filled portfolio to ease complaints about lack of housing, low salaries and standard of living. "
    Syria
     

    The Stratfor Institute predicts that the Syrian conflict, which has recently entered its final stages, will end. In the Syrian civil war, five forces - Turkey, Russia, the United States, Iran and Israel - are struggling. Moscow and Tehran support the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus and do not differ in their level of support for the regime. But Russia has used the Syrian conflict as a starting point to expand its influence in the region. It wants to preserve what it has achieved, and does not want to open a confrontation with any of the conflicting powers, whether the United States, Israel or Turkey.
     

    Iran is seeking to provide broader support to Damascus, especially against Ankara and Washington, pointing out that Tehran will continue to build its forces inside Syria; a deterrent force against Israel and a means of providing equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Israel will thwart plans Iran, but is afraid of igniting an unintended war with Russia.
     

    According to the report, Turkey and the United States remain consistent with their opposition to the Assad regime, but each is pursuing a different agenda, even though they are active NATO states.
    The site points out that the United States is focused on destroying the remnants of state organization in Syria, pointing out that although it is trying to isolate Iran and limit its influence in Syria, but its defiance of Tehran there may have created tension with Russia, which can not and will not force Iran to Leave Syria.
    Despite the attempts to avoid a clash in Syrian airspace, the possibility of unintentional conflict between US and Russian stocks remains, and thus the chances of confrontation between the major powers participating in the Syrian conflict remain 2019.
    Turkey
     

    It is likely that Turkey will continue to focus on Kurdish forces in Syria, which is a problem for the United States, which uses Syria's democratic forces controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection Forces, which Turkey views as terrorist forces, such as a force against state organization and proxy forces against Iran.
    The report shows that Turkey may face a crisis in the north-west, especially after its commitment to protect Idlib, which the regime is trying to restore. Thus, the province, the last stronghold of the Syrian opposition, may become a point of tension in 2019, pointing out that the confrontation will be between groups Pro-Iranian and those supported by Turkey and Russia, and may have turned into a state-level dispute against others.
    Turkey's biggest challenge remains to tackle its fragile economy in 2019 and address the high level of inflation, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may find himself forced to accept a debt bill equivalent to a quarter of GDP while avoiding a new lira crisis.
    According to the report, Erdogan will try to expand his popular base before the local elections in the spring, and draws close to the Turks worried about the economic situation of the entire spectrum of the election, noting that what has weakened Turkey's economic relations with the West, while the relationship with the United States of volatility; Ankara's relations with Moscow, and Washington's support for the people's protection forces.
    The website says Erdogan will try to focus on the stability of the economy. As Turkey is under pressure from America, it will try to attract investment and maintain stable economic relations with Europe.
    Stratfor concludes his report by pointing out that in addition to achieving economic stability, Ankara will continue to achieve its other goals in terms of influencing northwest Syria, containing the Kurdish enclave in northeastern Syria, and striking PKK units in northern Iraq.



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