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[size=32]US - Turkish Safe Zone: Potential and Obstacles
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What follows from the news of meetings, discussions, disagreements, and disagreements over the issue of forming a safe area in northeastern Syria, or in a region that has come to be defined in terms defined by the international intervention in Syria “east of the Euphrates”; We are in a position to consolidate the spheres of influence and limit them to further notice, pending the outcome of regional and international variables and their repercussions on the equations of balance in the region. This includes the internal changes that the countries of the region may witness, and even their maps, which are no longer contemplated to redraw, despite what we hear from the statements and assurances from various parties influencing the direction of events in the region, including what is happening in Syria.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres himself has been on the line of declarations on the proposed safe area, stressing the importance of consensus among the parties concerned, while his envoy, non-Pedersen, suggests that the dispute over the formation of the Constitutional Commission is on the verge of disappearing. Drafting the constitution, or revising the 2012 constitution according to Russian hints at last, with the next step being elections, which, as disclosed so far, will be under UN supervision. It should be noted that Pedersen and other UN officials concerned with the Syrian dossier are aware of the fact that it was impossible to reduce what happened in Syria about nine years ago to a constitution drafting committee that will not be implemented in the absence of mechanisms and rules that firmly prevent the interference of the many complex intelligence services in the Syrian political decision. . As to talk about the elections being promoted, more than half of Syrians are among
Pedersen and other UN officials are aware of the impossibility of reducing what happened in Syria about nine years ago to a constitution-drafting committee.
Another remarkable silence of the regime is its almost complete silence about what is going on in order to agree on the formation of the safe zone, a silence that intersects to a large extent with the Russian silence, which is sometimes accompanied by occasional media statements, often for the purpose of disinformation and disguise. This confirms that the consensus between the various parties that share the current Syrian space on the distribution of areas of influence, and the establishment of borders, is what governs the joint work between these parties, and their relations with each other.
For Turkey, however, the situation is particularly important, and it is of exceptional importance. Without the other competitors, Turkey shares a land border of more than 900 kilometers with Syria. Not only are the borders, but there is population overlap and interaction through the distribution of community components on both sides of the border. In addition to the common interests, and even the psychological dimensions that are based on memories of history and current events, there are Syrians still nostalgic to the days of the Ottoman Caliphate. Others consider the rule of the caliphate an occupation that should have been eliminated, albeit through an alliance with Western powers that have always dealt with our region from the standpoint of its interests and requirements. Among them, the majority of Syrians aspire to a natural and beneficial relationship between the two peoples, Turkish and Syrian, based on respect for the facts of history and the facts of geography, population communication, spiritual and cultural ties, and common economic interests. Within this framework, the Turkish interest in the Syrian north, which is detailed on the anticipation of the possibility of any immediate or future threats, according to the Turkish estimates itself, Turkey is interested in what is happening, and will take place in the Idlib region. It is also interested in what things will be in Jarablus and Bab. But the biggest Turkish interest is centered around the eastern Euphrates region, and the Kurdish areas in particular, for two main reasons:
First, these areas overlap with those Kurdish located on the Turkish side, the populations on both sides of the
"Great Turkish interest centered around the east of the Euphrates region, the Kurdish regions define" borders are associated with each other many social ties, dating its history and its roots to before the forced division experienced stage Region after World War I, and even before the founding of the Ottoman Empire itself.
The second reason that Turkey is paying special attention to this region is the dominance of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), because of the full coordination that had been in place since the beginning of the Syrian revolution between this party and the Syrian regime. The American side used the party's forces to fight ISIS, which was not far from understandings with the Russian side. This means accepting the order.
Thus, Turkey finds itself divided between two axes or alliances: the axis of Russia and Iran. And the axis of Western countries led by the United States of America. It has interests in these and those, and tries in various ways to hold the stick from the middle, it may get what it wants from both parties, but the rules of dealing between regional powers on the one hand, and major international on the other, is different from those governing relations between the latter, regional powers are required, In other words, it is governed by the process of choosing between this axis or that. Whereas, because of their overlapping interests and interests in many regions, and by possessing the means of strategic power at various levels, the major powers can identify points of consensus and differences, to come to terms with the former and leave the second to the future.
Nevertheless, despite all the differences over the S-400 and F-35 deal, Turkey has an exceptional place in the US strategy for the Middle East and even in Central Asia and the Far East. It is a large and influential country, with contacts and mutual interests with most of the world's vital countries. Turkey is unwilling, for many reasons, to emerge completely from its Western alliances and partnerships and threaten its important economic relations with the United States, despite all that has happened. Therefore, the two parties shall do their utmost to reach consensus on the safe area, with each party keen to use some of its papers and provide some of them in anticipation of new possibilities.
The possibilities of understanding and joint action on the area concerned are realistic, especially in light of the initial preliminary consensus between the parties on the Joint Operations Center. But there are many details, and many questions stop, including with regard to the nature of the administration, and the party or entities that will oversee the proposed region or regions, and the mechanism for resolving differences, and on the peace corridor and its function,
“Turkey finds itself divided between two axes or alliances: the axis of Russia and Iran” and others Of inquiries and questions. But all these points and others can be reached on the consensus, if there is a common will on both sides, to reach a consensus that takes into account the demographic reality in the region, and the need to preserve the security of people and their rights and property, and not to allow the flagrant violations committed by some armed factions That entered the Afrin region with the Turkish army.
There are several scenarios in this area, perhaps the most achievable American (Western) - Turkish joint supervision of the region, leaving matters to manage the region and control the internal security of its people of all components, in return for a US pledge to protect the region from the regime's attacks, especially air and missile ones. The PYD has two options: to become a Syrian Kurdish party, after disengagement from the PKK, and to integrate with the Syrian situation through its cadres, members and supporters of the Syrians. Or insist on continuing to subordinate to the Labor Party, in such a case, will have no role in the political future of the eastern Euphrates region, and at the Syrian general level. Because the latter party has another arena, another platform, other priorities, and the Syrian stage was merely a platform, which he used to strengthen the regional cards, and strengthen its internal situation and its own potential.
Threats of interference are noticeably diminished, but crowds are still in place. In any case, calm and constructive dialogue remains the best way to find realistic solutions to the most complex problems.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres himself has been on the line of declarations on the proposed safe area, stressing the importance of consensus among the parties concerned, while his envoy, non-Pedersen, suggests that the dispute over the formation of the Constitutional Commission is on the verge of disappearing. Drafting the constitution, or revising the 2012 constitution according to Russian hints at last, with the next step being elections, which, as disclosed so far, will be under UN supervision. It should be noted that Pedersen and other UN officials concerned with the Syrian dossier are aware of the fact that it was impossible to reduce what happened in Syria about nine years ago to a constitution drafting committee that will not be implemented in the absence of mechanisms and rules that firmly prevent the interference of the many complex intelligence services in the Syrian political decision. . As to talk about the elections being promoted, more than half of Syrians are among
Pedersen and other UN officials are aware of the impossibility of reducing what happened in Syria about nine years ago to a constitution-drafting committee.
Another remarkable silence of the regime is its almost complete silence about what is going on in order to agree on the formation of the safe zone, a silence that intersects to a large extent with the Russian silence, which is sometimes accompanied by occasional media statements, often for the purpose of disinformation and disguise. This confirms that the consensus between the various parties that share the current Syrian space on the distribution of areas of influence, and the establishment of borders, is what governs the joint work between these parties, and their relations with each other.
For Turkey, however, the situation is particularly important, and it is of exceptional importance. Without the other competitors, Turkey shares a land border of more than 900 kilometers with Syria. Not only are the borders, but there is population overlap and interaction through the distribution of community components on both sides of the border. In addition to the common interests, and even the psychological dimensions that are based on memories of history and current events, there are Syrians still nostalgic to the days of the Ottoman Caliphate. Others consider the rule of the caliphate an occupation that should have been eliminated, albeit through an alliance with Western powers that have always dealt with our region from the standpoint of its interests and requirements. Among them, the majority of Syrians aspire to a natural and beneficial relationship between the two peoples, Turkish and Syrian, based on respect for the facts of history and the facts of geography, population communication, spiritual and cultural ties, and common economic interests. Within this framework, the Turkish interest in the Syrian north, which is detailed on the anticipation of the possibility of any immediate or future threats, according to the Turkish estimates itself, Turkey is interested in what is happening, and will take place in the Idlib region. It is also interested in what things will be in Jarablus and Bab. But the biggest Turkish interest is centered around the eastern Euphrates region, and the Kurdish areas in particular, for two main reasons:
First, these areas overlap with those Kurdish located on the Turkish side, the populations on both sides of the
"Great Turkish interest centered around the east of the Euphrates region, the Kurdish regions define" borders are associated with each other many social ties, dating its history and its roots to before the forced division experienced stage Region after World War I, and even before the founding of the Ottoman Empire itself.
The second reason that Turkey is paying special attention to this region is the dominance of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), because of the full coordination that had been in place since the beginning of the Syrian revolution between this party and the Syrian regime. The American side used the party's forces to fight ISIS, which was not far from understandings with the Russian side. This means accepting the order.
Thus, Turkey finds itself divided between two axes or alliances: the axis of Russia and Iran. And the axis of Western countries led by the United States of America. It has interests in these and those, and tries in various ways to hold the stick from the middle, it may get what it wants from both parties, but the rules of dealing between regional powers on the one hand, and major international on the other, is different from those governing relations between the latter, regional powers are required, In other words, it is governed by the process of choosing between this axis or that. Whereas, because of their overlapping interests and interests in many regions, and by possessing the means of strategic power at various levels, the major powers can identify points of consensus and differences, to come to terms with the former and leave the second to the future.
Nevertheless, despite all the differences over the S-400 and F-35 deal, Turkey has an exceptional place in the US strategy for the Middle East and even in Central Asia and the Far East. It is a large and influential country, with contacts and mutual interests with most of the world's vital countries. Turkey is unwilling, for many reasons, to emerge completely from its Western alliances and partnerships and threaten its important economic relations with the United States, despite all that has happened. Therefore, the two parties shall do their utmost to reach consensus on the safe area, with each party keen to use some of its papers and provide some of them in anticipation of new possibilities.
The possibilities of understanding and joint action on the area concerned are realistic, especially in light of the initial preliminary consensus between the parties on the Joint Operations Center. But there are many details, and many questions stop, including with regard to the nature of the administration, and the party or entities that will oversee the proposed region or regions, and the mechanism for resolving differences, and on the peace corridor and its function,
“Turkey finds itself divided between two axes or alliances: the axis of Russia and Iran” and others Of inquiries and questions. But all these points and others can be reached on the consensus, if there is a common will on both sides, to reach a consensus that takes into account the demographic reality in the region, and the need to preserve the security of people and their rights and property, and not to allow the flagrant violations committed by some armed factions That entered the Afrin region with the Turkish army.
There are several scenarios in this area, perhaps the most achievable American (Western) - Turkish joint supervision of the region, leaving matters to manage the region and control the internal security of its people of all components, in return for a US pledge to protect the region from the regime's attacks, especially air and missile ones. The PYD has two options: to become a Syrian Kurdish party, after disengagement from the PKK, and to integrate with the Syrian situation through its cadres, members and supporters of the Syrians. Or insist on continuing to subordinate to the Labor Party, in such a case, will have no role in the political future of the eastern Euphrates region, and at the Syrian general level. Because the latter party has another arena, another platform, other priorities, and the Syrian stage was merely a platform, which he used to strengthen the regional cards, and strengthen its internal situation and its own potential.
Threats of interference are noticeably diminished, but crowds are still in place. In any case, calm and constructive dialogue remains the best way to find realistic solutions to the most complex problems.
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