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Tuesday 22 October 2019 16:59
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Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi (AFP)[/size]
Ahead of the upcoming protests on October 25, it may end with the overthrow of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's government.
According to the repercussions of the protest movement, which began in early October and was met with a bloody government repression, which resulted in the death, injury and arrest of thousands, many political actors in Iraq broke with Abdul Mahdi's government, and stood either neutral or supportive of the public.
The jumpers of Abdul Mahdi ship
The first to leave the Mahdi was the Wisdom Movement, led by Ammar al-Hakim, who turned to the opposition even before the protests began, to be quickly joined by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his victory bloc.
Later, Shiite parties such as the leader of the State of Law coalition, Nuri al-Maliki, and Sunnis such as the Salvation Front led by Osama al-Nujaifi and liberal like the Iraqi platform led by Iyad Allawi, expressed surprise at the measures used by the government against the demonstrators, warning of the repetition of these actions in the upcoming demonstrations.
Observers say that all these forces will be very happy with the fall of Abdul-Mahdi's government, because this may open the door to participate in the formation of the new authorities, after they emerged almost empty-handed negotiations to form the current government, except for Allawi, who got one of his candidates to the defense portfolio, before he Turn it over, according to leaks.
But the most important shift came through the departure of Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr and the coalition of Sairon, which is sponsored by the circle of forces supporting the government, which stripped Abdul Mahdi of about half the value of the political cover that depends on the management of the country.
Sadr sent an envoy to Abdul-Mahdi, asking him to resign and take part in negotiations to choose his successor, due to widespread public anger over the government's bloody handling of the protests. But Mahdi rejected Sadr's request for Iranian encouragement, according to sources familiar with the talks.
At that point, Sadr sent a fiery letter to the demonstrators, asking them to hold the corrupt themselves to account, because the Mahdi government was unable to do so.
Although Sadr did not issue clear orders to his legislative bloc in the Iraqi parliament to withdraw, his letter was seen as evidence of a final break between him and the government of Abdul Mahdi.
According to these developments, Abdel Mahdi has no political cover, except the Fatah Alliance, which includes representatives of the Popular Mobilization and a spectrum of pro-Iranian politicians, as well as attempts by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Halbousi (Sunni) to calm angry protesters, in order to protect the government, which may fall He is personally falling.
Standing on the hill
According to the reactions, there are influential forces, the Supreme Shiite cleric Ali al-Sistani, and President Barham Saleh, seems to have decided to stand on the hill, and monitor developments, although they will not lose or win in any of the results.
Although Sistani and Saleh expressed an almost identical position in condemning the killing of the protesters, they kept the door open for Abdul Mahdi to continue in office.