Iraq's openness to America and the Arab Gulf ... Implications and challenges
The attempts to
rapprochement between Iraq on the one hand, and the United States and the Arab Gulf states on the other hand, go back to the period of former Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's rule, which witnessed the first serious attempt to rapprochement with equal relations with those parties, and Baghdad's relationship with Washington before the American withdrawal in 2011 was limited. On the military context, while tension was hanging over Iraq's relationship with its Arab and Gulf surroundings due to the difference in policies between the two parties.
During that period, Iraq and Saudi Arabia formed the "Joint Coordinating Council", with the aim of promoting bilateral relations between the two countries in all fields and coordinating efforts to develop the strategic partnership between them. This movement led at that time to positive popular reactions towards a new page of relations between Baghdad and Riyadh.
The "Saudi-Iraqi" Coordinating Council held its first meeting in early October 2017, under the auspices of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Al-Abadi, and former US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
Al-Abadi's visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE were widely welcomed, but this coordination quickly collapsed with the arrival of the resigned Prime Minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, as he released the armed factions at the local level and allowed them to control Iraq's foreign relations.
New attempts
Al-Kazemi is again engaged in a seemingly tougher attempt to restore balance to Iraq's external relations, not based on visits and statements only, but, as his recent visit to Washington showed, he is trying to "interlock" economic interests between Iraq on the one hand and the United States and the Gulf states on the other hand, in a way that guarantees Make those relationships strategic and sustainable whether or not he continues in office.
The Iraqi government has signed a series of agreements with US companies for sustainable energy, as well as memoranda of understanding to establish a new energy company in Dhi Qar Governorate (southeast), and also include managing the entire energy file in the province near the Iranian border.
According to a statement by the US Department of Energy, the total value of the agreements signed between Iraq and US companies reached $ 8 billion.
As for coordination with the Arab Gulf states, Al-Kazemi instructed on July 13, 2020, to reconstitute the Iraqi delegation in the "Saudi-Iraqi" Coordination Council headed by the Minister of Finance, Deputy Prime Minister Ali Allawi.
On July 20, the Iraqi delegation headed by Allawi signed a set of agreements and memoranda within the Coordination Council in the fields of investment, education, sports, energy and others.
Al-Kazemi affirmed that he is optimistic about the future of relations between Baghdad and Riyadh, stressing their importance, as he said that "relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia are firm and based on belief in common strategic interests, and he is optimistic about their future."
Iran bumpers
These developments did not constitute good news for Iran, whose loyalist groups dominated most of the country's economic and political joints, and Tehran benefited from that equation in making Iraq isolated from its regional environment and the international community, which provided a space for it to make Iraq a major economic lung that would make it able to face sanctions. The American economy, as well as being able to manage its foreign relations scene through parliamentary blocs close to it.
Tehran proceeds through three tracks to obstruct any Iraqi openness to the United States and the Arab Gulf states, which are summarized by attempts to promote sectarian rhetoric and aggravate the security scene, in addition to blocking any potential agreements between Iraq and those countries through the Iraqi parliament.
Tehran benefits from a high trade exchange balance with Iraq of about $ 12 billion and seeks to raise it to reach the limits of 20 billion, although its goods are not considered competition in the Iraqi market, but the absence of trade exchange agreements or openness to Iraq with other countries has enabled Iran From the exclusivity of influence over the country's economic and political scenes.
Observers believe that all of these factors push the "loyalist factions" (a term referring to the armed factions that owe allegiance to Iran) to confront any attempts at rapprochement between Iraq on the one hand and the United States or the Arab region on the other hand with fierce media attacks, where several papers are used as buffers, Among them is the sectarian escalation paper as one of the most prominent means of confronting such projects.
The leaders of the armed factions are anticipating any possibilities of openness to the Arab Gulf states with fiery statements aimed at sectarian escalation. On June 14, 2020, the leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, Qais Khazali, said, “The Gulf project, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is one of the projects that I want it from. The destruction of the country, "attributing this to the" lack of acceptance of the existence of a political system in Iraq governed by the Shiite majority, "a metaphor that the leaders of the militias linked to Iran have often repeated in their attempts to sectarian polarization and limit Iraq's relations with Iran.
Khazali had accused Israel, the United States and the UAE of trying to cause chaos and internal strife, during the Iraqi uprising of October 2019, which is the media discourse that all pro-Iranian media tools followed in the face of the demonstrations calling for political reform and holding the corrupt accountable.
Parliament is a major obstacle
Observers point out that these forces will face the opening of Iraq to any country outside the axis of Iran, by blocking any potential agreements in the Iraqi parliament, where it has sufficient influence to block any agreements outside Iranian hegemony.
Military targets
In another context, observers are likely to use these factions to hint at military targeting of any potential projects for Iraq with the Arab Gulf states or America, as the military operations that these groups launch against the American columns, even if they are withdrawn, give a clear impression that those armed forces that are proposing Speech hostile to America and the Gulf states, they will not object to aiming their guns at any potential Gulf projects in Iraq.
Tehran's investment in obstructing the security of Iraq
In the context, observers point out that targeting US interests with Katyusha missiles goes beyond an attempt to provoke Washington or draw it into a conflict on the ground, to an attempt to provoke security tensions that prevent the emergence of a safe investment environment and impede investments outside the framework of companies that represent fronts for Iranian interests and Iraqi militias linked to them.
This is what the head of the Independent Research Group, Munqith Dagher, pointed out, saying that "targeting US interests with missiles is an attempt by Iran's arms to make the investment environment insecure for companies outside its influence," noting that "this matter is what pushes the Arab Gulf states to rethink Before entering the line of economic partnerships with Iraq. "
He added to "The Independent Arabia" that "Iran is trying to restore the scene of the years 2006 and 2007 in Iraq, which destroyed the country's economy and its social fabric, making it easier for armed groups to control these areas and keeping Arab countries away from establishing economic, political and security partnerships with it."
Dagher added, "Iran's most prominent investment in Iraq was in the field of obstructing the security file, and since it cannot play the role of an economic partner, it is resorting to security escalation," noting that "Iran relies on sectarian and security escalation to obstruct any openness to the Arab Gulf states." ".
State media assumptions
It seems that what constitutes the first gesture that enables any Iraqi prime minister to block the attempts of Tehran's arms to thwart Baghdad's efforts to open up to any country outside the Iranian axis, which focus on the seriousness or lack of seriousness of the Arab Gulf states and America in playing a role in the investment issue inside Iraq, and helping the Iraqi state To build a sober economy and to make investment partnerships with it.
On economic relations with the United States, Habib affirmed that "the armed factions are actively promoting hypotheses, among them that the American General Electric Company has not succeeded in supplying Iraq with the energy it needs despite its commitment to several decades," noting that "the media of the factions focuses on accusation The American company avoids talking about corruption and waste of money files in the Ministry of Electricity.
He concluded by saying that "the battle is mainly informational, but the achievements on the ground will block the way to any systematic propaganda campaigns for these groups," noting that "the biggest challenge is the success of Iraq and its new friends in the region in proving their ability to build economic partnerships and not be satisfied with political meetings."
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