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An international agency that adjusts the credit rating of Iraq to stable
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]24th March, 2021
[size=16][size=19]The international credit rating agency (Fitch), amended, on Wednesday, the outlook for Iraq to stable, confirming its rating at (B).[/size][/size]
The agency, headquartered in New York and London, said in a report seen by Mawazine News that
it had "adjusted the outlook for Iraq to stable from negative, but political economy dynamics still hinder policymaking."
It indicated that "although the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar by 18.5% and the government's approval of the white paper on financial and economic reforms,
some possibilities indicate that measures will be taken to put the financial affairs of Iraq on a more sustainable basis."
The agency added that "Iraq's classification is restricted by reliance on basic commodities, weak governance, high political risks, and an underdeveloped banking sector, while the rating is supported by high foreign exchange reserves and low interest costs on government debt."
The agency forecast a budget deficit "equal to about 5% of GDP in 2021, shrinking from an estimated 16.5% of GDP in 2020 due to high oil prices and devaluation, which will boost the local currency's value for oil exports by 5%." Of gross domestic product, "with the rest of the variables held constant."
There is a great deal of uncertainty in the projections because the 2021 budget has not been finalized, amid widely differing proposals. In 2022, we expect a similar deficit, as higher oil exports compensated for lower oil prices, while spending increased only marginally." After strong growth in 2021."
It pointed out that "oil export revenues will grow by 75% in 2021, based on an improvement of 42% in the price of Iraqi oil to $ 55 per barrel (Brent crude at $ 58 per barrel), the devaluation of the currency and a slight increase in the volume of exports."
It noted that "non-oil revenues are likely to increase, but they do not meet the budget proposals, which included progressive reform of the payroll tax, a 10% flat tax on pensions, and a new sales tax on alcohol, tobacco and auto sales."
The agency indicated that [size=16]"government debt / GDP increased to 87% in 2020 from 48.5% in 2019, driven by the budget deficit, and a 25% decrease in nominal GDP and currency depreciation, which added nearly 10 points in the ratio." Government debt / GDP."
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This includes foreign currency debt an estimated $ 40 billion in old debt arising from the 1980s, for which Iraq faces no pressure to serve after the 2004 Paris Club agreement, and excluding this debt, total government debt/GDP was around 60% at the end. - 2020.'
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