Mahmoud Jamal - Mubasher: The fever of interest in small stocks did not stop at the gates of Wall Street, where some of its "M" shares witnessed record increases of more than 200 percent since the beginning of the year. Rather, this fever spread to the stock markets in the Middle East.
And meme stocks such as "Gimstop", which have sparked widespread controversy since the end of last year and are listed on the American market, are generally small in size and are of interest among young people under the age of fifty, and their movement and record heights are not always based on substantial news.
After the cryptocurrencies, which attracted record gains, witnessed some traders from the stock markets, liquidity left those currencies after their collapse, heading to seize opportunities globally and regionally.
According to statistics prepared by "Mubasher Information", some small-sized stocks that recorded losses in their annual results in the Saudi market achieved increases of more than 300 percent, and the same wave of rise extended to shares listed on the Egyptian, Jordanian, Kuwaiti and Muscat financial markets.
Analysts told "Mubasher Information" that the fever that has dominated the traders of the American and European stock markets since the end of last year has moved strongly to the Middle East and Egyptian stock exchanges, for several reasons, most notably the low prices and successive rises that attract those who want to get rich quick and who have failed to achieve gains from currencies encrypted and recently collapsed.
Mohamed El-Sherbiny, Vice President of Investment at NI Capital, told Mubasher Info that the trend of young stock market dealers to invest in small or medium stocks reflects their optimism about the return to growth of business results for these companies in the coming periods, unlike the majority of large stocks. .
He pointed out that to choose between those stocks, the focus should be on the activity or the company's business sector. Is it a good activity and the company has the ability to expand and grow and take advantage of economic conditions or not?
For his part, Mohammed Saeed, a financial market analyst, believes that the preference of small investors to seize shares of small companies is due to the speed of their movement and the successive rise in their prices, much more than the shares of large companies that tend more towards stability, which means from the point of view of the small investor a decrease in the chances of profits achieved.
He explained that the low-priced shares give a psychological impression to the younger and newer investor in the money market about the possibility of achieving a better return on the basis of owning a larger number of shares, which was what prompted many companies to resort to excessive splitting of their shares in an effort to attract liquidity and increase momentum on their shares on the Egyptian Stock Exchange.
He pointed out that although this category of shares is expected to achieve the best gains, but on the other hand it also bears a greater amount of risk and the possibility of losses for the same reasons, so it is suitable for the short-term investor who depends on speculation in the markets more than other stocks.
He pointed out that the long-term investor who does not have enough market fluctuations must choose stocks based on the company's financial and administrative performance and clear and logical plans for growth and improving the company's business opportunities in the future, meaning that the investment is based on the company's performance more than the stock's performance.
Exits and collection
In turn, Mohamed Gaballah, Head of Business Development and Strategies at Pioneers Securities Trading Company, told “Mubasher Information” that the interest in this category of shares, most of which are listed in the seventy index on the Egyptian Stock Exchange since the beginning of the Corona crisis, as the work of some traders was disrupted by the epidemic, and there was no Any other source of income other than the stock market, then the big speculators acquired the liquidity of this category and it was directed to small stocks that are easy to control and then direct as they like.
Gaballah pointed out that with the absence of the main player for major stocks, namely foreign institutions, from the market and their preoccupation with government bonds at the same time, this pushed the seventy index to achieve breakthroughs, explaining that the coming period in the Egyptian Stock Exchange is expected to occur systematic exits and disposal of the seventy index in exchange for an aggregate of shares. The largest listed in the 30 index, which may start mid-June or the end of August.
For her part, Hanan Ramses, an economist at the "Freedom Securities" company, told Mubasher Information that the situation in the Egyptian Stock Exchange is different from the Gulf markets, as the Saudi parallel market, which is equivalent to an OTC market in Egypt. It has wide price limits for stock movements, which helps in achieving profits and making quick trades, and this is what we witnessed in the first months of this year.
She stressed that those markets, as they are profitable, can cause huge losses to dealers, and to avoid this, they have to be monitored by the authority so that dangerous speculations or illegal practices do not occur in them.
Ramses attributed the trend of dealers in small and medium stocks listed on the Middle East stock exchanges, especially in the seventy index in the Egyptian market, to their low prices and their achievement in return for major gains, and the government’s support for the market through economic incentives to avoid the effects of the Corona pandemic, noting that these factors prompted individual dealers to pump liquidity. strong lately.
Ahmed Moati, CEO of VI Markets - Egypt, told Mubasher that the trend of young investors in this period towards small stocks is due to several reasons, including that small investors seek low-priced stocks, in addition to the fact that these stocks are more speculative. They are stocks for long-term investment, and this is what small individuals seek, so they do not want to stay in the market for a long time.
He explained that these stocks are characterized by low acquisition by large investors and investment funds, thus their movement will be faster, in addition to the decrease in the monopoly rate.
He stressed that these shares are characterized by high risk and high volatility compared to the shares of large companies, especially those listed in the general index of the Egyptian Stock Exchange as a future example.
Moati advised investors that if they invest in Al-Meem stocks, they should look for stocks that are characterized by the strength of their financial statements and shares of strong companies that are expanding their projects, especially those listed in the construction sector, the technology sector and the pharmaceutical sector, which are expected to witness strong rises in the coming period.
Ayman El-Zayat, an analyst in the financial markets, said that individual investors are rushing to this segment of small stocks to compensate for the losses they incurred from the leading stocks, especially after the continuous selling by foreigners in the leading stocks or the main index stocks in the Egyptian Stock Exchange, which are not moving, but their performance is slow, especially that the stocks The small number of its shares is few and is easy to control by speculators, and then achieve satisfactory profits in a short period of time.
He advised to be careful of the stocks that rose by a large percentage in the recent period and to reap profits in them, and to buy in the stocks that did not move and are witnessing a group buying movement, or to wait until the pace of selling foreigners and buying again calms down.
manipulation and speculation
Hoda El-Minshawy, professor of economics, and president of the Egyptian Association for Investment and Development in Capital Markets, said that small stocks are among the stocks that are subject to manipulation and violent speculation, and they are attributed to the category of millim shares in the Egyptian Stock Exchange, for example.
She pointed out that the shares that rose significantly in the last period were the reason why individuals on the Egyptian Stock Exchange are currently exposed to heavy losses after implementing quick selling operations on those shares.
For her part, Doaa Zeidan, a financial markets expert at Tycoon Securities Trading Company, explained that the current period is a purely speculative period, and the shares of small companies have few shares and are easy to control by a group of speculators and raise their price level, especially in the Egyptian market, with little liquidity with no The institutional role and the tendency of institutions to invest in bonds and treasury bills, which led to a slow movement on financial and leadership stocks.
Mina Rafik, director of research at Al-Marwa Securities Brokerage Company, confirmed to Mubasher Information that with the weak percentage of institutional participation in trading volumes and with the decline in the relative weight of the Egyptian Stock Exchange in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which led to the emergence of selling pressures from Foreign institutions accepted the leading stocks to reconcile their investment ratios to the index, which negatively affected the Latin index.
He pointed out that individuals have increased their risk with the return of economic activity and the speed of distribution of vaccines, with several news of acquisitions of companies in several sectors, especially with the attractiveness of traded prices for their decline during the pandemic period and their trading with profit multiples and an attractive book value.
Mohamed Hassan, managing director of Bloom Egypt for Financial Investments, told "Mubasher Information" that the seventy index in which small stocks are listed in the Egyptian market over the past two months has been strongly approaching a historical level at 2,400 points, noting that after this violent rise it is necessary to Take profits with the proximity of the aforementioned level.
He pointed out that in light of the tense general conditions of the markets, some resort to exiting the leading stocks on the basis of the expectations that foreign investors will exit these stocks strongly to increase the selling pressure on them, and at the same time they turn to small stocks with market makers in these stocks to make quick profit from them in the long run. The short term, stressing that the risk in these stocks is very high, especially in times of lack of future vision for the markets.
He noted that exploiting opportunities in the leading stocks is the best ever for those who want to invest and achieve imaginary gains in the long term, explaining that, for example, but not limited to, the main stock of the Egyptian Stock Exchange, the Commercial International Bank stock, since the beginning of 2012, that is, during 9 years, achieved gains of more than 500 in cent at an average of 55 percent annually.