Weekly Security Update

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COUNTRY OVERVIEW

This week in Iraq has been somewhat calmer than the previous
reporting period with a noted decrease in attack tempo. There were
decreases in the number of civilian fatalities with a reported total of
approx. 57 fatalities country wide (down by 89 from last week) bringing
the February total up to approx. 313.

The overwhelming majority of violence this week was in the north of
the country with Baghdad being spared the atrocities of last week. The
constant high tempo Iraqi Army activity in the north and west continues
to have a dampening effect on insurgent activity bringing on an uneasy
calm, however the daily churn of violence continues.

On the political scene similar themes dominated reporting this week
ranging from enduring frictions between the demonstration movement and
the security services, as well as the continued stalemate surrounding
the 2013 budget. The GoI remains in a precarious position and continues
to flex its muscle across the country in order to try and wrest back
some influence and control in dissenting provinces. In an attempt to
further diffuse the stalemate with the demonstration movement, and to
claw back some legitimacy, Al-Maliki has pushed the reconciliation and
rejection of sectarianism agenda hard suggesting that anyone meddling in
sectarian politics will be dealt with by the courts and subject to
prosecution for inciting hatred.

This, amongst other initiatives, appears to have had some effect
eroding the intent of the demonstration movement, of whom little has
been heard this week. Added to this it was clear that a good deal of the
Iraqi public attention has shifted this week in support of their Shiite
brethren outside Iraq, namely in the Gulf States. Also of note was the
recent intervention into the political process by Martin Kobler – UN
Special Representative for Iraq – and UNAMI in an attempt to try and
assist in negotiating a way out of the political stalemate.

At the international level a number of key pieces dominated
reporting. Iraq continued to be dragged in different directions by
contradictory foreign forces, particularly Iran and Turkey. In a
significant development Turkey officially confirmed that it would not
accept any extension of oil and gas pipelines from Kurdistan without the
approval of Baghdad, which adds an interesting dynamic to the on-going
friction and confrontation over who has the right to control and exploit
the northern oil reserves.
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