American Institute: Armed conflict is an option for the political crisis in Iraq

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[size=52]American Institute: Armed conflict is an option for the political crisis in Iraq[/size]

[size=45]Translation: Hamed Ahmed[/size]
[size=45]A report by an American institute stated that resorting to armed conflict between political opponents in Iraq is possible in light of the persistence of differences, but it was surprised by the agreement to pass the Emergency Support Law for Food Security and Development, and indicated that this law represents a lifeline for the political blocs to continue their stagnation for months. coming.[/size]
[size=45]An analytical report by the Middle East Institute for Studies in Washington on the current political situation in Iraq, translated by (Al-Mada), stated that "there are two major events for the Iraqis that took place last week that will reformulate the remaining phase of this year, but in the hope that nothing more will happen after that."[/size]
[size=45]The report added, "The first event, that on June 8, the divided Parliament surprisingly harmoniously voted to pass the controversial Emergency Food Security and Development Support Law with a budget of 25 trillion dinars (17 billion dollars)".[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out, "The second event that immediately followed that on June 9 was the call of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, to his followers in Parliament to prepare to submit their resignations."[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that "this came amid a political impasse that prevents countries from forming a government, seven months after the results of the parliamentary elections for October 2021." He explained, "Al-Sadr, who won the largest number of parliament seats, allied with the Kurds and Sunnis in order to form the first national majority government after 2003 within a coalition that recently bore the name of the National Salvation Alliance."[/size]
[size=45]And the report stated, "The opposing party, consisting of Shiite parties within the Coordination Framework Alliance, seeks instead for a government of national unity."[/size]
[size=45]He continues, "Most importantly, the Coordination Framework Group wanted al-Sadr in one way or another to be part of the Shiite house in which Shiite parties allied themselves and settled their differences among themselves."[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that “Al-Sadr, as he did during the past few months when he threw the ball of forming the government at the two stadiums of the coordination framework and even the independent members, his call on June 9 for his followers to resign was seen as just another tactic.”[/size]
[size=45]He explained, "The followers of the Sadrist movement, which numbered 73 deputies, suddenly submitted their resignations on June 12, and Iraq jumped this time into a void deeper than political confusion."[/size]
[size=45]The report added that "going into scenarios of what might happen next, it should be preceded by reviewing the Food Security and Development Law passed by Parliament," and considered that "the timing of the law is very important to understand what the political class places in its priorities and what it wants."[/size]
[size=45]He noted that "the law was passed by 273 votes out of 329," stressing that "the vote on the law witnessed the rapprochement of the two parties, the framework, with the Alliance to Save the Nation, despite weeks of exchanging accusations, even the Kurds voted in favor of the resolution."[/size]
[size=45]He continues, "The law allows the government the right to the necessary spending after the passage of the 2022 budget was hampered due to the delay in forming the government."[/size]
[size=45]And he stated, "The Federal Supreme Court had ruled on May 15 that the authority of the Prime Minister of the caretaker government is limited to the daily tasks within the 2021 budget, which ends on December 31."[/size]
[size=45]The report indicated, "Both the executive and legislative bodies informed the public that the main reason for this law is food and agricultural security, according to the name of the law." He explained, "The challenges of Iraq's food security are really real challenges, despite the political maneuvers."[/size]
[size=45]And he continues, "The prices of foodstuffs on the global market since the end of last year began to rise, and the matter got worse in 2022 due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused a significant increase in prices since last February."[/size]
[size=45]The report added, "There is broad internal support to address this problem, and that the point of food security provides a solid justification for enacting the law."[/size]
[size=45]He stated, "The law is also intended to solve another common reason that incites demonstrations and protests. When temperatures rise above 50 degrees Celsius in the summer, Iraqis take to the streets to protest against power cuts, which is an annual challenge facing the government."[/size]
[size=45]The report stated, “Iraq depends on about 40% of the electricity supplies in the summer on Iran, such as electric energy or imported gas that is burned in national power stations.”[/size]
[size=45]He talked about, “Reasons for the broad consensus of the political blocs to pass the law, in addition to avoiding the legal obstacles imposed on the caretaker government of spending and spending, the law provides a lifeline for the political blocs to continue their stagnation for months to come.”[/size]
[size=45]He finds, "The next six months will be a decisive struggle for financial sustainability between the major players."[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that "passing contracts requires an affordable and talented government," stressing that "the implementation of expenses and employment opportunities will be major factors in winning the sympathy of Iraqis."[/size]
[size=45]According to the report, “there are two points of view that require thinking about the current situation. First, what will the Independent High Electoral Commission do? And secondly, did the Sadrists really decide to abandon the political process?[/size]
[size=45]He explained, "The fifth item of Article 15 of the House of Representatives elections law clearly indicates that in the event of vacant seats, the candidate with the highest points in the electoral district can occupy the seat."[/size]
[size=45]The report expected that "the members of the coordination framework will get more seats, especially since they were on the margins of competition for the Sadrists in the southern provinces."[/size]
[size=45]He added, "Even if the frameworks approached more towards forming a government through these seats, they would still need to collect two-thirds of the parliament's 220 seats, and even if they got all the Sadrist movement's seats and their number became 151, they would need another 69 seats to form a government."[/size]
[size=45]And the report went on, that "the coordinating framework will not be able to form a government unless it ally with the rest of the Alliance to Save a Homeland of Sunnis and Kurds, without a doubt that this was part of al-Sadr's adoption of this decision."[/size]
[size=45]The report comes out with two possible scenarios, the first "the coordination framework's attempts to form a government after reaching an agreement with the Kurds and Sunnis, in this case the Sadrists will go to the opposition outside Parliament."[/size]
[size=45]He finds, "The dangers in this for the framework and the new government are that al-Sadr and his followers and hundreds of thousands of supporters can bring down this government within months after its formation, and that the fall of the previous Adel Abdul-Mahdi government is a lesson that can be learned from."[/size]
[size=45]And the report added, "The second scenario is that the framework group mitigates al-Sadr's plans and instead offers the Sadrists positions in the next government."[/size]
[size=45]And he believed, "This may be achieved as a compromise solution to unite the Shiite house and join all political players in the country, as well as recognizing al-Sadr's influence and the rights of his movement as the biggest winner in the elections."[/size]
[size=45]The report acknowledged, "the difficulty of predicting Iraq's political atmosphere due to personal and historical hostilities and differences that may reappear, making it difficult to reach consensus."[/size]
[size=45]The report added, "The possibility of this politicization situation continuing for a longer period now, and at its worst, the possibilities of settling matters with weapons, if no party is satisfied, are possibilities that remain not excluded."[/size]
[size=45]About: Middle East Institute[/size]
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