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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    US report: Biden's indifferent policy gave Iran the upper hand in Iraq

    Rocky
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    US report: Biden's indifferent policy gave Iran the upper hand in Iraq Empty US report: Biden's indifferent policy gave Iran the upper hand in Iraq

    Post by Rocky Fri 26 Aug 2022, 9:03 am

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    2022.08.26 
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    Baghdad - people  
    A US report published by the Washington Institute stressed that letting the emerging democracy in Baghdad manage itself has become a big risk, in light of Tehran's tireless efforts to reverse the effects of the setback it suffered in last year's elections.  
      
    The report, prepared by David Schenker, director of the Arab Politics Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, followed by "NASS" (August 26, 2022), confirmed that "after Iraqis voted bravely for parties opposing Iranian hegemony, the approach adopted by the Biden administration later, which is based on no Interfering with the government formation process will allow Iran's leaders to turn defeat into victory."  
    The report added, "For some unclear reason, it appears that Iraq - where the United States has fought two major wars in recent decades - is no longer a priority for Washington, but, unfortunately, a priority for Tehran."  
     
     
      Following is the text of the report:
      
    In light of Tehran's relentless efforts to reverse the effects of the setback it suffered in last year's elections, letting the emerging democracy in Baghdad manage its own affairs has become a huge risk.  

      
    About six weeks ago, US President Joe Biden bragged to the Washington Post that the Middle East is "more stable and safer" than it was when he took power from his predecessor, Donald Trump. Among the examples he cited was Iraq, where the number of missile attacks against US soldiers and diplomats declined. While he is right in terms of the decrease in the number of attacks targeting Americans, this measure alone is not sufficient to [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] his claim to the stability of the region. By nearly all other measures, Iraq is less stable today than it was in January 2021—and threats to American interests there have only intensified.  
      
    It is a remarkable turn of events. Just 10 months ago, Iraq did not seem ready to form a government committed to reducing the destructive role of Iran-backed militias and strengthening the country's sovereignty in the face of its larger neighbour. Today, Iran's political allies in Iraq have the upper hand, the country's fragile democracy is more threatened than ever, and for the first time in a decade, the potential for violence even among Shiite groups is emerging.  
      
    But the situation could have been different. Muqtada al-Sadr was the biggest winner in the parliamentary elections that took place last October, a populist Shiite cleric who called during his election campaign to build a [free] Iraq that is not dominated by neither Washington nor Tehran. Al-Sadr's coalition won the majority of the 329 seats in the House of Representatives, defeating the Iranian-backed Shiite Islamist parties that represent the political arms of the Popular Mobilization Forces militia.  
      
    The chest is not a panacea. In the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the "Mahdi Army" founded by Al-Sadr became one of the fiercest opponents of the US presence in Iraq, and the cleric was almost killed by US forces. However, al-Sadr has recently shown himself as a nationalist, a corruption fighter, and a critic of the military activities carried out by the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq against American diplomats and soldiers.  
      
    To be sure, we do not know whether the fickle cleric will eventually choose an Iranian-style theocracy and designate himself as the supreme guide when he comes to power. At least in the aftermath of the elections, al-Sadr was ready to form a majority-Shi'a government coalition that would include Sunnis and Kurds and exclude Iranian-backed parties. Perhaps he and his allies among the representatives were able to extend Iraqi sovereignty and fight corruption, which is a major goal of the massive protest movement that swept the country in 2019.  
      
    However, that government never saw the light of day. Iran’s allies have delayed its formation, as some reports stated that groups affiliated with the “Popular Mobilization Forces” such as “Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq”, “Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada” and “Hezbollah Brigades” threatened to overthrow the government and tried to assassinate Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, It rained missiles and drones on the Kurds, and bombed the house of Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi. Admittedly, al-Sadr and his Kurdish associates did not seize the moment, but at least they were making slow progress.  
      
    The Iranian-backed "coordinating framework" at the time - that is, Sadr's Shiite opponents - played his trump card. To prevent al-Sadr, the Kurds, and the Sunnis who won a majority of parliament seats from choosing a prime minister and forming a government, the Iran-backed opposition used its influence on the corrupt judiciary to change the rules of the game. For the first time, the Federal Supreme Court ruled that a simple majority was no longer sufficient to form a government, and an absolute majority of two-thirds of the representatives became a condition for that. After the 73-member Sadr bloc failed to reach this threshold, it submitted a mass resignation in June, and its seats were reallocated to parties allied with Iran.  
      
    Who planned this judicial coup? It is Nouri al-Maliki, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2014 and who was notorious for his massive corruption and vicious sectarianism, which greatly contributed to the emergence of the Islamic State. In January 2021, it was reported that he narrowly escaped the Trump administration's sanctions. As kingmaker, Maliki is once again in control.  
      
    It should be noted that al-Sadr and al-Maliki have been competing for leadership of the Shiite community in Iraq since at least 2008, when government forces led by al-Maliki attacked the "Mahdi Army "  that al-Sadr had established and defeated it in the "Battle of Basra." Given this history of hostility, al-Sadr responded to the designation of the "coordinating framework" on July 25 for Maliki's ally Muhammad Shia al-Sudani for the position of prime minister by instructing his supporters to occupy the House of Representatives and prevent voting to elect a prime minister, which they did as required. It seemed as if al-Sadr had followed in the footsteps of the rebels who stormed Congress on January 6, 2021 in Washington.  
      
    Today, the Sadrists are no longer in the House of Representatives, but they are still present in the “international zone” (the “Green Zone”) across from the House of Representatives, to prevent the election of Al-Sudani. On the other hand, al-Sadr is calling for parliament to be dissolved and early elections held under an amended electoral law  —  demands opposed by the Iran-backed "coordinating framework." As the  stalemate continues ,  tensions are  rising among   Iraq 's Shiites . Regardless of how to get out of this stalemate, Iran's influence in Baghdad is likely to increase, discouraging Iraqi voters who voted  overwhelmingly for change last  October  .  
      
    To be sure, it is not clear whether Washington can prevent this from happening. In any case, it does not appear that the US administration made a concerted effort to thwart this scenario. In the roughly nine months between the elections and the withdrawal of Sadrist representatives, public records show that senior US officials in the State Department and the National Security Council visited Iraq only twice, and that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made few calls with Iraq's decision-makers. In an attempt to influence developments on the ground. The distinguished new US ambassador to Iraq, Alina Romanowski, may also have pushed for this issue to be resolved after her arrival in Baghdad last June. But as it appears, it did so without sufficient [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] from Washington.  
      
    The absence of a high-level US administration's involvement in Iraq's attempts to form a government after the elections was not an unintended omission, but rather a premeditated decision. As a senior Biden administration official said carelessly last December, the administration's plan was to "leave the Iraqis to solve their own problems."  
      
    Washington usually does not comment on election results in other countries, preferring instead to focus on institutional [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]. Unfortunately, Iraq is not an ordinary country, given that its nascent democratic government faces many difficulties under pressure from the long-established Iranian arm in Iraq - the militia of the "Popular Mobilization Forces", which has a strength of about 100,000. The elections in Iraq may have contributed in the end to weakening Iran's stifling grip on the country, but the American disengagement during the process of forming the government left a void that Tehran did not delay in filling.  
      
    In contrast, IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani and other senior Iranian officials have visited Iraq at least 10 times in recent months to threaten, deceive, and convince their local partners and opponents of how to form the next government. While the number of visits alone is not a sufficient measure of US interest, the discrepancy indicates that Washington has taken a non-interventionist approach. The US administration has not used its diplomatic and economic leverage to protect an operation that Tehran is fighting.  
      
    All of the above is notable because Iraq is important to the United States and its interests in the region. Not only did thousands of Americans lose their lives and limbs in order to help Iraq rise after Saddam Hussein's era, but unlike Afghanistan, Iraq is a true partner in the fight against terrorism and has a real chance to become an integrated democracy. Iraq enjoys a vital geostrategic position, stores the fifth largest oil reserves in the world, and is on the front lines of confronting Iran's efforts to expand its reach throughout the Middle East.  
      
    And as Washington appears to be getting closer and closer to a nuclear deal with Tehran, countering its meddling in Baghdad has become even more urgent — both for the United States and for its partners in the region. After Iraqis bravely voted for parties opposed to Iranian hegemony, the Biden administration's subsequent hands-off approach to government formation allowed the mullahs to turn defeat into victory. For some reason, it seems that Iraq - where the United States has fought two major wars in recent decades - is no longer a priority for Washington, but, unfortunately, a priority for Tehran.  
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