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[size=18]An analytical report issued on September 1, 2022, said that the “unprecedented” rise in food prices, coinciding with the climate crisis; He created the perfect atmosphere for civil unrest in more than 100 countries, the British Middle East Eye website reported. [/size]
The report, issued by the risk analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, warns of increased political unrest over the next 12 months, with more than 80% of the world experiencing inflation above 6%, and the possibility of repressive measures being used to stifle dissent.
It is noteworthy that the countries of the Middle East and North Africa are more exposed to these risks than others, as three of the ten most threatened countries are located in this region, according to the report.
Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia were already in the midst of an economic and political crisis before the latest shock from the Russian attack on Ukraine in February of this year.
[size=18]The damage will not be equal [/size]
But Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal analyst at the company that wrote the report, told Middle East Eye that the damage would not be equal in the Middle East; He divided the area into three threatened categories.
He claimed that "Lebanon, Turkey, and Iran are the most fragile countries, and are already located in a region of hyperinflation," adding that "Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Iraq and Morocco are in the middle category, where high rates of unemployment and inflation increase the risk of civil unrest."
Saltvedt also pointed out that "only the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Israel seem well-equipped to relieve the increasing social and economic pressure."
In this context, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which depend on oil and gas exports as a major source of income, have benefited from the record rise in energy prices.
Likewise, Israel, which enjoys a more diversified economy, has also benefited from higher energy prices, after significantly increasing its gas exports to Europe.
[size=18]Use of force to quell protests [/size]
On the other hand, Soltvedt told Middle East Eye: "Governments that cannot get out of the crisis...repression by force will be their main way of responding to this growing unrest."
But Saltvedt pointed out that the use of force to quell the escalating protests "risks exacerbating an existing crisis of legitimacy."
"Many countries in the region share that they have not adopted effective mechanisms to channel popular discontent, at a time when dissatisfaction with the current economic and political situation is growing," he said.
In turn, Hamish Kinnear, Middle East and North Africa analyst at the same company, pointed out that Tunisia, widely considered the epicenter of the Arab Spring, is "more vulnerable to the risks of civil unrest."
"The political chaos in Tunisia is hampering efforts to secure economic assistance from international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, although any deal with the IMF will likely require austerity measures that will exacerbate civil unrest," Kinnear said.
Although Egypt is relatively more stable, it suffers from similar economic problems, Kinnear said, adding that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi could also "mobilize external financial [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] faster, especially from friendly Gulf states."
On the other hand, Kinnear pointed out that despite the continued rise in food and energy prices in the region, it increases the chances of political unrest. Uncontrollable range.
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