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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation with Iraq

    rocky
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    IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation with Iraq Empty IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation with Iraq

    Post by rocky Sun 21 Sep 2014, 10:02 am

    IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation with Iraq



    Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 13/58


    May 21, 2013

    Public Information Notices (PINs) form part of the IMF's efforts to promote transparency of the IMF's views and analysis of economic developments and policies. With the consent of the country (or countries) concerned, PINs are issued after Executive Board discussions of Article IV consultations with member countries, of its surveillance of developments at the regional level, of post-program monitoring, and of ex post assessments of member countries with longer-term program engagements. PINs are also issued after Executive Board discussions of general policy matters, unless otherwise decided by the Executive Board in a particular case.
    On May 13, 2013, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Iraq.1
    Background
    Iraq is exceptionally rich in oil, but its economy suffers from severe structural weaknesses, such as a small non-oil sector, a dominating role of the government in all areas of the economy, and a poor business environment. Nevertheless, partly thanks to the increase in oil production since 2003, Iraq has achieved a rise in GDP per capita from $1,300 in 2004 to $6,300 in 2012 in a very difficult security and political context. During this period, Fund program engagement with Iraq was instrumental in maintaining macroeconomic stability—even though progress on structural reforms and job creation was mixed.
    Recent macroeconomic developments have been broadly positive. Economic growth has reached 8.4 percent in 2012 and is expected to rise to 9 percent in 2013 as oil production increases to 3.3 million barrels per day (mbpd). Inflation has declined from about 6 percent at end-2011 to 3.6 percent at the end of last year, and should increase only slightly in 2013. International reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) rose from $61 billion at end-2011 to $70 billion at end-2012, and fiscal reserves held at the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) have increased from $16.5 billion to $18 billion.
    Thanks to higher-than-expected oil revenues and the under-execution of the investment budget, fiscal surpluses reached almost 5 percent of GDP in 2011 and 4 percent in 2012. However, with a break-even oil price of about $100, fiscal performance is very vulnerable to oil revenue shocks—either from oil price declines or export shortfalls. Furthermore, fiscal discipline weakened over the past two years, with poor budget planning and execution, large off-budget spending, and low investment execution rates. The 2013 budget includes large unfunded commitments, increasing fiscal risks, including the possible depletion of fiscal reserves, if the budget were to be fully executed.
    The policy of a de facto peg to the U.S. dollar provides a key nominal anchor to the economy, and the nominal exchange rate in the official market has remained stable since 2010. However, since late 2011, the authorities enforced existing exchange restrictions and introduced new restrictions in response to concerns about money laundering and illegal foreign exchange outflows related to the increased demand for foreign exchange. As a result, the spread between the official rate and the parallel market rate—which had been up to that point below 2 percent—started to climb, passing 9 percent in May 2013.
    Over the medium term, Iraq’s macroeconomic outlook will continue to be driven by developments in the oil sector. Staff projects that oil production will rise gradually by about 400-500 thousand barrels per day per year, reaching 5.7 mbpd by 2018. Overall, growth is projected to remain above 8 percent and inflation at 5–6 percent over the medium term.
    Risks to the macroeconomic outlook remain high. They include (a) weak policy implementation, particularly in the fiscal area; ( B) further deterioration of the political and security situation; © a larger-than-projected decline in global oil prices; and (d) delays in developing Iraq’s oil fields and oil export capacity, possibly due to security issues but also insufficient investment in oil infrastructure. These risks can translate into lower oil revenues, deterioration in the fiscal position, pressures to use CBI reserves for fiscal purposes, and higher inflation.


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