Iraq Oil Surge Seen Losing Steam Just as Markets Need More
May 16, 2016 — 2:00 PM PDT Updated on May 17, 2016 — 12:07 AM PDT
Iraq’s oil industry is on a roll. Production has jumped more than 40 percent since mid-2014 and exports are at near-record levels.
It probably won’t last. Plunging government revenue is hampering the state’s ability to invest, while OPEC’s second-biggest crude producer is reaching the limits of its capacity to store and export oil, according to analysts at Energy Aspects Ltd. and FGE. Spending on the country’s biggest fields may shrink to as little as $7 billion this year from about $13 billion in 2015 and $20 billion in 2014, Richard Mallinson of Energy Aspects said Monday.
Iraq has boosted output after decades of sanctions, war and under-investment, with international companies such as BP Plc and Lukoil PJSC developing some of the largest deposits in its oil-rich southern region. The country is exporting 3.3 million barrels a day of crude this month from the southern port of Basrah, and it targets keeping shipments at that level for the rest of the year, Deputy Oil Minister Fayyad Al-Nima said in a May 13 interview. Without more investment, these exports are sure to slide, the analysts said.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
“We’re going to see production growth flatten and then start to decline by late this year and into 2017,” Mallinson said by phone from London. “What does that mean if Iraq doesn’t deliver growth this year? If you were expecting a big increase from Iraq and we don’t see that, it will add to bullish sentiment in the market.”
While crude continues to flow from Rumaila, West Qurna and other fields in the south, parts of northern Iraq are a battleground for forces trying to dislodge the Islamic State militants who have occupied swaths of territory since 2014. The conflict has prevented the government from exporting oil through its northern pipeline to Turkey, and the collapse of a plan to share oil revenue with the self-ruling Kurds in northeastern Iraq has limited sales from fields in the region.
These challenges, coupled with financial constraints caused by a plunge in crude to half the average price in 2014, threaten to choke off future investment in Iraq. That could help push prices higher later this year just as rising global demand and faltering supply elsewhere in the world eliminate a glut in crude. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is due to meet next on June 2 to assess markets and output policy.
Crude prices have dropped more than 30 percent since OPEC adopted a strategy in November 2014 to defend its market share and drive out higher-cost production from U.S. shale wells, Canadian oil sands and deep-water deposits. European benchmark Brent crude fell to a 12-year low in January before bouncing back to about $49 a barrel this week. Brent traded as much as 1 percent higher on Tuesday, reaching $49.47 a barrel in London.
Investment in Iraq’s southern fields may fall by 30 percent to 40 percent this year as the government, which gets most of its income from oil sales, delays payments to foreign companies and limits future spending, said Tushar Tarun Bansal of FGE in Singapore.
“Investment in new wells isn’t getting done, and that will show up in reduced production later in the year,” Bansal said. “The market is yet to account for the impact that will have, and it could lead to higher prices.”
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
May 16, 2016 — 2:00 PM PDT Updated on May 17, 2016 — 12:07 AM PDT
Iraq’s oil industry is on a roll. Production has jumped more than 40 percent since mid-2014 and exports are at near-record levels.
It probably won’t last. Plunging government revenue is hampering the state’s ability to invest, while OPEC’s second-biggest crude producer is reaching the limits of its capacity to store and export oil, according to analysts at Energy Aspects Ltd. and FGE. Spending on the country’s biggest fields may shrink to as little as $7 billion this year from about $13 billion in 2015 and $20 billion in 2014, Richard Mallinson of Energy Aspects said Monday.
Iraq has boosted output after decades of sanctions, war and under-investment, with international companies such as BP Plc and Lukoil PJSC developing some of the largest deposits in its oil-rich southern region. The country is exporting 3.3 million barrels a day of crude this month from the southern port of Basrah, and it targets keeping shipments at that level for the rest of the year, Deputy Oil Minister Fayyad Al-Nima said in a May 13 interview. Without more investment, these exports are sure to slide, the analysts said.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
“We’re going to see production growth flatten and then start to decline by late this year and into 2017,” Mallinson said by phone from London. “What does that mean if Iraq doesn’t deliver growth this year? If you were expecting a big increase from Iraq and we don’t see that, it will add to bullish sentiment in the market.”
While crude continues to flow from Rumaila, West Qurna and other fields in the south, parts of northern Iraq are a battleground for forces trying to dislodge the Islamic State militants who have occupied swaths of territory since 2014. The conflict has prevented the government from exporting oil through its northern pipeline to Turkey, and the collapse of a plan to share oil revenue with the self-ruling Kurds in northeastern Iraq has limited sales from fields in the region.
These challenges, coupled with financial constraints caused by a plunge in crude to half the average price in 2014, threaten to choke off future investment in Iraq. That could help push prices higher later this year just as rising global demand and faltering supply elsewhere in the world eliminate a glut in crude. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is due to meet next on June 2 to assess markets and output policy.
Crude prices have dropped more than 30 percent since OPEC adopted a strategy in November 2014 to defend its market share and drive out higher-cost production from U.S. shale wells, Canadian oil sands and deep-water deposits. European benchmark Brent crude fell to a 12-year low in January before bouncing back to about $49 a barrel this week. Brent traded as much as 1 percent higher on Tuesday, reaching $49.47 a barrel in London.
Output Target
Iraq pumped a record 4.51 million barrels a day in January and 4.31 million in April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its total production capacity, including in Kurdish areas, is 4.8 million barrels a day, and increasing that to a target of 5 million will depend on oil prices, Al-Nima, the deputy minister, said. Domestic demand for oil as fuel for power plants is also a constraint on exports, Al-Nima saidInvestment in Iraq’s southern fields may fall by 30 percent to 40 percent this year as the government, which gets most of its income from oil sales, delays payments to foreign companies and limits future spending, said Tushar Tarun Bansal of FGE in Singapore.
“Investment in new wells isn’t getting done, and that will show up in reduced production later in the year,” Bansal said. “The market is yet to account for the impact that will have, and it could lead to higher prices.”
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Yesterday at 5:11 pm by Rocky
» Sudanese advisor criticizes Kuwaiti analyzes regarding the development road project
Yesterday at 2:21 pm by Rocky
» Al-Mandalawi stresses the need to strengthen economic and trade cooperation between Iraq and Poland
Yesterday at 2:04 pm by Rocky
» Power maneuvers: America provides defensive weapons to Kurdistan in exchange for withholding from Ba
Yesterday at 10:26 am by Rocky
» Kuwait is drilling an oil well near Umm Qasr, towards Iraqi territory
Yesterday at 10:24 am by Rocky
» In the document... the first Iraqi ministry identifies the obstacles to changing the new official wo
Yesterday at 10:22 am by Rocky
» Italian Institute: Iraq is stuck in its own crises, including Baghdad’s efforts to undermine the “au
Yesterday at 10:21 am by Rocky
» The head of the Integrity Commission announces the holding of an international Interpol conference i
Yesterday at 10:18 am by Rocky
» Planning: Iraqi companies are not efficient in conducting the population census
Yesterday at 10:14 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/24/24 Support - USA- Turkey - Timing- Currency Value - Tabled
Yesterday at 8:08 am by Rocky
» MM&C 4/25/24 National Bank of Iraq goes live with Temenos core banking and payments
Yesterday at 8:06 am by Rocky
» A banking official indicates a "danger" to Iraq by depriving more than half of its banks of dollars
Yesterday at 7:55 am by Rocky
» With the participation of the Association of Private Banks, investment opportunities are on the tabl
Yesterday at 7:45 am by Rocky
» Within a month... an Iranian border crossing recorded a noticeable increase in exports of goods to I
Yesterday at 7:44 am by Rocky
» The Association of Private Banks appreciates the efforts of the government and the Central Bank to c
Yesterday at 7:43 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki's coalition presents a third candidate for the position of governor of Diyala
Yesterday at 6:57 am by Rocky
» Arab gathering: The Kirkuk problem is getting complicated and the Sudanese must intervene
Yesterday at 6:56 am by Rocky
» Next week.. a Kurdish delegation will visit Baghdad to meet with the Minister of Finance
Yesterday at 6:54 am by Rocky
» Under the pretext of salaries... Al-Party refrains from handing over port revenues to Baghdad
Yesterday at 6:53 am by Rocky
» Association of Banks: For the first time, we are witnessing a clear targeting of depriving half of t
Yesterday at 6:51 am by Rocky
» Parliament does not know the reason for the delay in sending the 2024 budget schedules: Voting takes
Yesterday at 6:49 am by Rocky
» Applicants for the 2024 Hajj are demanding that the Central Bank secure the dollar for them through
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Governmental and private banks will showcase their services tomorrow during Financial Inclusion Week
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» Iraq's oil exports rise despite OPEC+ cuts
Yesterday at 5:06 am by Rocky
» A study explodes a "surprise"... Iraq is among the countries that export oil to "Israel": How is the
Yesterday at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Al-Araji emphasizes working to strengthen national identity
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani visits Saudi Arabia to participate in the World Economic Forum in Riyadh
Yesterday at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Iraq is talking about producing one million additional liters of gasoline
Yesterday at 4:59 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers approves the implementation of the Baghdad Metro project
Yesterday at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Minister of Commerce: We formed a joint economic committee with Türkiye
Yesterday at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Resources: Government measures have contributed to improving the water situation in Iraq
Yesterday at 4:53 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: Baghdad will continue to send salaries to the region’s employees until settle
Yesterday at 4:51 am by Rocky
» A parliamentarian describes the corruption of Iraqi ports as “ghouls” and reveals the involvement of
Yesterday at 4:49 am by Rocky
» Obelisk Hour: Basra is the subject of political conflict and ambiguity over the fate of the funds al
Yesterday at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Turkmen leader: An agreement on the local government of Kirkuk is near
Yesterday at 4:45 am by Rocky
» Anbar calls for the operation of its factories despite financial obstacles
Yesterday at 4:44 am by Rocky
» Turki: The crisis of the Presidency of Parliament prompted the Sunnis to amend the Council’s interna
Yesterday at 4:43 am by Rocky
» The Agriculture Committee confirms the existence of Iraqi-Turkish-Iranian discussions on water
Yesterday at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Resources diagnose the challenges facing the water file in Iraq
Yesterday at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Parliament pledges to the Interior Ministry: We will transfer money to buy weapons from citizens
Yesterday at 4:33 am by Rocky
» Al-Issawi is the closest.. Parliament sets the date for deciding the choice of the new president
Yesterday at 4:31 am by Rocky
» Deputy: Iraq's investments have risen and need a comprehensive review of previous years
Yesterday at 4:30 am by Rocky
» Iraqis consume 7 billion eggs annually and import about $900 million
Yesterday at 4:28 am by Rocky
» The Iranian role complicates attempts at open cooperation between Iraq and Turkey. Turkey is trying
Yesterday at 4:26 am by Rocky
» Move in Iran to obtain $242 billion from Iraq in compensation for the eight-year war
Yesterday at 4:25 am by Rocky
» 12 decisions from the Council of Ministers regarding the Baghdad Metro and Najaf-Karbala train proje
Yesterday at 4:23 am by Rocky
» Sudanese Advisor: The path to development has begun... the Baka and the militias “we silence them wi
Yesterday at 4:21 am by Rocky
» Not from Kurdistan.. How did Iraq become a source of oil for “Israeli tanks”?
Yesterday at 4:19 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Agriculture criticizes the Sudanese and Erdogan agreement: Türkiye will control water
Yesterday at 4:16 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi government issues new decisions
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 2:35 pm by Rocky
» The story of “reduced oil” to Jordan, from “compulsion” to mutual benefit.. Is there a loss?
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 2:33 pm by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers takes 12 decisions for the Baghdad Metro and the Najaf-Karbala train
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 2:32 pm by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/23/24 Iraqi Dinar - IQD Update - Development Road Project - Saviour of Global Banking
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 10:18 am by Rocky
» Kidney from pig transplanted into deathly ill New Jersey woman — and begins working almost immediat
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 10:15 am by Bama Diva
» The most difficult option.. Warnings of the danger of floating the Iraqi dinar without achieving an
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 9:48 am by Rocky
» Trade from the “Economic Committee” with Türkiye: It will overcome all obstacles facing the traders
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 9:46 am by Rocky
» Washington's hope for stable relations with Baghdad clashes with Iraqi parties' rejection of the Ame
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 9:41 am by Rocky
» Karim Badr: Development is America’s will to kill silk
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 9:36 am by Rocky
» Oil: Opening of a new port for liquid gas for vehicles in Baghdad
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 9:33 am by Rocky
» A media advisor warns of corruption in a draft law on the Parliament’s agenda
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 9:21 am by Rocky
» Economist: There is serious work to lift US sanctions on Iraqi banks
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 9:16 am by Rocky
» Will the agreements signed with the US Treasury reflect positively on the exchange rates?
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:52 am by Rocky
» Iraq continues its quest to join the World Trade Organization
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:51 am by Rocky
» Iraq completes the completion of the files for the initial offer of goods and services to join the W
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:50 am by Rocky
» Economist: Travelers' dollars are leaking into the parallel market...and this is what the Central Ba
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:32 am by Rocky
» President of the Federal Court: It is not permissible to force anyone to join any party, and the pol
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:30 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers holds its session headed by Al-Sudani
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:27 am by Rocky
» America weakens Baghdad...and increases Kurdistan's military capabilities
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:26 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi government plans to build 10,000 schools throughout the country
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:23 am by Rocky
» American threats close the Iraqi Stock Exchange at a loss
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:21 am by Rocky
» Increase in external transfers at the Central Bank
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:20 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki calls on Britain to cancel restrictions on the entry of its companies into Iraq
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:18 am by Rocky
» Planning and the European Union are discussing signing a number of agreements in the development, en
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:16 am by Rocky
» Parliament talks about the mechanism for recovering smuggled funds and hints at the next stage
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:13 am by Rocky
» Interior Ministry: The number of completed national cards reached 37 million cards
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:06 am by Rocky
» Amnesty International: Violations of freedom and human rights continue in Iraq and the Kurdistan Reg
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:04 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Oil: The government is proceeding with the decision to raise the price of improved gas
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:03 am by Rocky
» A parliamentary committee in Basra to investigate violations of the port company and the local gover
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 7:00 am by Rocky
» Revealing the 10 most important American exports to Iraq
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:31 am by Rocky
» A noticeable increase in the rate of Iraq's import of Chinese cooling devices
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:30 am by Rocky
» Prime Minister: Working on projects without completing the infrastructure is a waste of money
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:28 am by Rocky
» Iraq.. Extending the deadline for registration procedures on plots of land
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:27 am by Rocky
» What is the main purpose of conducting the population census in Iraq?
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:25 am by Rocky
» A plan to transform Iraq from a barren land to green with 5 million trees
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:24 am by Rocky
» The Housing Fund announces the acceptance of more than 11 thousand loans through the Ur platform
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:23 am by Rocky
» The Bank of Baghdad is moving to increase its capital to 400 billion dinars
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:20 am by Rocky
» The electronic payment system will soon be adopted on Iraqi buses
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:19 am by Rocky
» “It threatens our interests and destroys our economy.” An Iraqi project “irritates” the Kuwaiti stre
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:18 am by Rocky
» Warning from the Central Bank about “misuse of electronic payment cards”
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:17 am by Rocky
» Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman are discussing sending capacities through the Gulf countries
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:16 am by Rocky
» The fact that a decision was issued to deport Syrian workers from Iraq
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:14 am by Rocky
» Rice comes first... America exports 10 foodstuffs worth more than 350 million dollars to Iraq
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:14 am by Rocky
» A sixth licensing round for gas exploration
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:12 am by Rocky
» Baghdad is preparing to host the 50th session of the Arab Labor Conference
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:11 am by Rocky
» Scientific symposium on the future vision of the tripartite budget
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:09 am by Rocky
» Five conversion power stations enter service in Najaf
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:08 am by Rocky
» Planning: Conduct a population census next November
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:07 am by Rocky
» Experts: Spreading misleading information harms development and investment
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:03 am by Rocky
» Economists call for tightening money laundering laws and port controls
Thu 25 Apr 2024, 5:02 am by Rocky