Economist: loss of Fallujah pay Daash to abandon the "State" and return as an organization terrorist
Baghdad / term
In Syria, collar fighters backed by the American organization fighters in the city of Manbej, north of Aleppo, and put tenderness in mind. In all it believed that the organization has half the land seized by Iraq, and 20 percent of its territory in Syria, and is on the verge of losing its stronghold in Libya.
And felt the Economist, that the biggest battle has not started yet, in order to restore tenderness in Syria ,and Mosul in northern Iraq. It is expected that the terrorists are fighting fiercely in defense of the two cities.But the loss of areas less dangerous, for the organization, for something else, which is building a "virtuous state," and the prospect of losing its attraction and its place among the world 's Muslims. So Daash trying toadapt to the new circumstances.
According to prominent magazine that Daash is approaching more and more to take the traditional character of the terrorist organization. Through a large and sudden shift, said the organization 's spokesman Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, last May, that Daash not fighting to sweep areas, and that it will defend the tenderness and Mosul, of course, but it is preparing to shift to guerrilla warfare. He repeated Aladnana appeals to his supporters to strike the enemies of the organization abroad.
" The smaller activity you are doing in their own land, is better and more sustainable for us than if you were with us."
Says the Economist that some individuals and organizations have responded to the call. It has resulted inattacks carried out in Orlando, and in the last month in Istanbul and Dhaka, Baghdad and Jeddah to kill hundreds of victims. Some of these attacks have been under the direct orders of Daash, others are inspired by radical ideas, and where distracted attention from defeats in Iraq and Syria. Those attacks have suggested that it will be repeated later.
He said Fawaz Gerges, from the Faculty of Economics at the University of London, " is expected to be next year , the deadliest of the previous year."
The magazine believes that the strategy of the organization are not Palanfalah as it may seem. The organization has begun for years to send volunteers to the West. The recent attacks in Paris, Brussels and Istanbul from the work of old networks.
Says John Brennan, director of the CIA, "led strikes of the international coalition to crack down on financial regulation resources, and the impact on its ability to planning and training, but Daash still able to terror and terrorism transplant. And It must strike a court order to evict Daash from wider areas, and the rhythm of thebiggest losses in men and resources, in order to drop his abilities terrorist significantly. "
the belief a number of analysts will not lose Daash appeal, except when it loses its ability to be in a certain area and direct orders from bases In which. Defeats suffered by the recent significant impact on its operations has been left. A report released in February, for US intelligence to a large decline in the number offighters, due to death or defection of operations he noted.
But woe Macans, of the Brookings Institution, believes that the loss of areas may attract as new fighters, as happened in Iraq at the end of the last decade, when seemed to Daash exposed a big defeat.
he says Brennan , "over the next year, it is expected to be expelled Daash of Mosul and tenderness. With theincreasing pressure on him, we expect to intensify outside his terrorism campaign in order to maintain his dominance on the agenda of international terrorism. but is not likely to give up his goal in the continuation ofhis succession, not because the circumstances that enabled him to create a whole has changed, but because of the continued existence of divisions and conflicts central governments is Vaalten in Syria and Iraq. it ensures that Daash not get back the losses? ".