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A huge difference between Sunday’s game and tonight’s will be the absence of Penguins superstar Evgeni Malkin. He will not play tonight. He will not take part in this weekend’s all-star festivities. He has a lower body injury and it remains to be seen how serious. He will be re-evaluated when he returns to the team after the weekend is over. Malkin has had a Hart caliber season so far. Tonight will be the only game he has missed so far. It has been encouraging considering the last time Malkin played 70 games was his 2011-12 MVP season.
Malkin’s absence at the end of last year’s regular season turned into a non-issue because the HBK line was on fire. If Malkin is out for an extended period can this year’s absorb that loss the same way they did in 2015-16?
Here are the 5v5 offensive numbers during the Mike Sullivan regular season sample last year (December 12-April 13) compared to what they look like during this year:
It is a mixed bag. The most noticeable difference right away is the decrease seen with Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin. They are not close to producing at the same level as last year. It wasn’t reasonable to expect them to, but the drop from elite 1st line production to mid-range bottom six has been quite the fall from grace.
Patric Hornqvist is down quite a bit. His even-strength shooting percentage is way below career averages so maybe the team gets lucky and that regresses back towards his personal mean.
No Matt Cullen hurts. His production has been great in his 4th line role.
All defensemen are down this year. It doesn’t appear as if that unit is going to pick up the slack for Malkin’s potential absence. Even though it looks like Schultz is down from last year he is still doing great. You have to take into consideration he played limited minutes last year and this year his sample is larger even with the larger amount of points. Right now he is ranked 12th overall in 5v5 points per 60 among NHL defensemen with 500 minutes played. Olli Maatta and Brian Dumoulin weren’t exactly lighting the league on fire last year offensively and they are both below where they were last season.
Unless Bonino, Hagelin, Hornqvist, and the defense corp. pick it up the Penguins are definitely going to miss Malkin a lot more if he is out for an extended period of time when compared to last season. Even with Sheary, Rust, Wilson, and Fehr showing improvements those other veterans need to snap out of it.
Carter Rowney was held out of last night’s WB/S game and was not seen in the locker room after the game. It is likely that he will be called up and tonight very well could be his first ever NHL game. He has ten goals and 21 points in 24 games this year in the AHL. This could also open the door for Jake Guentzel to play his first NHL game at his natural position. Rowney can play center and the Penguins are in need of somebody to play the middle. Rowney can also play wing. Jake Guentzel is a natural center. I would like to see Guentzel get a game at center. Something that hasn't been talked about a lot is that Guentzel could potentially replace Nick Bonino at center if the team elects to not re-sign him.
There are a lot of different options Mike Sullivan could move forward with here is one:
Sheary-Crosby-Rust
Wilson-Guentzel-Hornqvist
Hagelin-Bonino-Kessel
Kunitz-Fehr-Rowney/Kuhnhackl
Players like Wilson and Kunitz could be flipped. You could always place Hornqvist back with Crosby, but at this time it doesn’t seem likely based on Sullivan’s comments from yesterday
Hornqvist is a game-time decision he did however skate this morning. I would say it is likely he dresses.
Matt Murray was the first goaltender off the ice at the morning skate. That makes six consecutive starts for Murray. The trade deadline is getting more interesting by the day.
Brad Marchand followed up his cheap shot to Jake Guentzel by dangerously tripping Niklas Kronwall the following game. The trip to Kronwall drew the league’s attention and he faces suspension. He may miss tonight’s game against the Penguins.
Cam Atkinson will be replacing Evgeni Malkin in the All Star Game. He is a deserving selection. Only Sidney Crosby (28) has more goals than Atkinson's 24. Given the game is three on three I also think his skating and hands will be a good fit for the format.
Today at 3:15 pm by Rocky
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