Pittsburgh Penguins

Who should be filling in for Guentzel on the top line?
March 28, 2017, 12:14 PM ET [32 Comments]
Ryan Wilson
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There's some good news on the injury front. Conor Sheary was practicing in a normal jersey today. That means Sid will have at least one of the kids back on his line. Jake Guentzel was back at practice as well. However, he was donning a non-contact jersey and is not ready for game action until he does participate with full contact.

Assuming Guentzel cannot play on Wednesday night who should fill in on the Crosby line?




Right now Bryan Rust has taken over that right wing spot. Is that the right call? Our data from this year says it is not.

We know that Sidney Crosby and Conor Sheary works. The third player on the line does indeed matter. Here are three of the different Sheary-Crosby line combinations that we have seen this year

source: imgur.com

The Crosby and Sheary combination with Bryan Rust is not as good as the others and it has received the most amount of ice time together. The Sheary-Crosby-Guentzel trio is amazing and that is the go to combo when everybody is healthy.

Given that both Bryan Rust and Patric Hornqvist are healthy and available it would be wise to move Hornqvist back to the Crosby line. Sidney Crosby probably likes the fact that Rust can skate faster than Hornqvist, but the results aren't as good. Neither player is particularly gifted at making skilled controlled plays so you might as well use the player that the data supports.

I have little doubt that Sidney Crosby gets frustrated at Hornqvist's ability to make controlled plays. We have seen the on the bench tiffs that both of those players have gone through. Crosby's preference is to have players who can buy more time in the offensive zone. Hornqvist treats the puck like a hot potato which puts pressure on Crosby to handle the skillful work in the offensive zone. That doesn't mean Hornqvist doesn't do other things that translate well. It just means that the other stuff bugs Sid enough to where Hornqvist's ice time has been cut in half with Sid.

Last year Hornqvist played 679 minutes with Sidney Crosby. Phil Kessel was Sidney Crosby's second most common right winger with 192 minutes.

This year Hornqvist's time has been slashed to 304 minutes. Other right wingers include Bryan Rust at 287 minutes and Jake Guentzel with 242 minutes.

Long term this poses an interesting question. Where does Hornqvist fit in? It would be crazy to break up the Sheary and Guentzel combo with Sid. Hornqvist has played with Malkin in the past, but where does that leave Phil Kessel after Nick Bonino likely moves on? There needs to be some thought about Daniel Sprong's place in this equation as well. If Hornqvist isn't going to be a top six winger it begs the question if the Penguins should look into taking advantage of Hornqvist's high value on the trade market. These are questions we can start to think about now, but answer after the season concludes.

For now it makes sense to reunite and Hornqvist and Crosby and slot Bryan Rust somewhere else.