You will end up organizing Daesh if the killing of its leader, al-Baghdadi?

You will end up organizing Daesh if the killing of its leader, al-Baghdadi?




News increased recently about the possibility that the Russians were able to kill the leader of al Daesh .. If the alleged caliph Abu Bakr al - Baghdadi , it would have little impact on the threat posed by al - Daesh on the global impact of security had been killed. Reports in mid - June that the Russians may have managed to kill al - Baghdadi , in an air raid carried them on May 28 near Raqqa, Syria has been published. While the number of skeptics has increased the validity of the news, stressing the dubious nature of the source, the Russians increased Adeathm it is likely "to be al - Baghdadi had been killed."
Even if it turns out that this is true, it will not only be merely a symbolic victory of a tactical short - term in the battle against Daesh. This terrorist organization is not based on one man, but was designed as a universal organization spread in several places called (states). This makes the organizational structure of the group is more complex than its predecessor al - Qaeda, and allows him a level of unique flexibility While the rise of al - Baghdadi , to the position of Caliph was important in recruiting foreign fighters and build interface legitimacy for the construction of the State alleged succession, the most important goal is to continue dismantling Organization as a whole, including its branches in Libya, Egypt, Nigeria and Afghanistan.
During the year and a half years, they have organized large tracts of land, financial resources have deteriorated sharply, and stalled efforts to recruit new fighters. However, the group continues to show the extent of the global spread of the killer with the recent attacks in London, Tehran and Manila ,. Although it may not have a direct hand in all of these attacks, the ability to inspire militants to act in its name indicates the extent of global spread.
While gaining the operations against al Daesh in the cities of Mosul and tenderness momentum, the terrorist group began to move men and materiel to its stronghold in Deir al - Zour in eastern Syria province, in particular the city areas, leading to the prospect of a bloody conflict in a place close to the Iraqi and Jordanian border .
Apart from the place where the decisive battle will take place against Daesh, the United States will need to formulate a multi - pronged strategy to address the threat posed by the group at the local, regional and global level. The killing of Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi simply will not be enough - Washington needs a comprehensive strategy using all political, economic, social and humanitarian means available to them.
The main factors that led to the rise of the organization Daesh, including malignant Syrian civil and sectarian war throughout the Middle East and North Africa, are still present and active unabated. The region continues to be a source of extreme violence, as the consequences of moving outward to pose a threat beyond its borders. All over the world, and provoked extremist ideology promoted by the organization Daesh risk of internal extremism and carry out attacks fierce and more specifically, should constitute a threat to the return of terrorists , foreign fighters a major concern of the West.
With the offer to organize Daesh additional losses in Mosul and tenderness, his fighters might try to flee abroad and re - mobilize existing affiliates or expansion in areas such as Southeast Asia, where the group has made progress in the Philippines recently. The state failed and territories under the control of non - state provides a fertile haven for the organization Daesh and its agencies, as well as other armed groups.
So far, Trump 's administration has not yet revealed any details about the new promised its strategy to fight al Daesh, although there are concerns that the national security adviser and other officials from the foreign policy are formulated. This strategy has been described as very similar to Obama 's strategy to combat the organization Daesh with a focus on denying elements of safe haven and support, and to stop the arrival of funding to the organization and questioning the ideology which is adopted to attract new recruits.
What can be done more in the ongoing battle against al Daesh in the Middle East? Politically, the most effective way of reducing support for terrorism are ways to address the root causes, which can not be achieved probably only through the establishment of a legitimate and strong governance in areas where Sunni groups feel marginalized.
Most likely, these areas must be more specific than "areas of stability" , which refers to US officials sometimes. Iraqi provinces such as Salahuddin, Nineveh and Anbar require, and must rest assured access to real political independence ... but unless there is a focus on reconciliation and political integration in these areas, it is likely that any territorial gains would represent only temporary successes.
The alliance should focus on the continued use of the US Air Force and special operations forces, in addition to relying on local partners are able to liberate the territory controlled by the organization Daesh.
The sound policies always involve trade - offs and the results are not known in the future. However , the wise use of military force, backed by political Bstratejah aimed at depriving terrorists of their power sources, would limit the ability of Daesh to carry out attacks with impunity on a global scale.
If al - Baghdadi died, it is likely that the organization Daesh move quickly to choose someone replace it, it is almost certain that the process of choosing the next leader, will probably through the Shura Council, Ouma is called the people of the solution and the contract. However, the group will be cautious in allowing the leader of the newly - appointed using the title of caliph, because it is still only for those who can trace their lineage to the Prophet Muhammad a special honor, as he claims Baghdadi.
However, it was the most important role of Baghdadi is always as a symbol, not a military leader strategically and as the most prominent representation of the project organization to build a state of the alleged succession, the cult of personality has grown between 2014 to 2016, when the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq and Syria at its peak.
The elimination of the alleged successor will not completely reduce the threat posed by Daesh, as both the jihadist ideology of the Salafi and the remnants of the divided organization will remain strong. More importantly , it is to continue to restore land regulation, which will help reduce its attractiveness with the elimination of safe haven in Iraq, Syria, Libya and elsewhere. You can not expect that the death of one man will change the fate of the entire region. Despite its losses heavy in the top leadership, the organization Daesh is still a very big threat.
For Foreign Policy magazine


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