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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Iraq sticks to learn: What scenario is repeated after the 2010 Elections

    Bama Diva
    Bama Diva
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    • Post n°1

    Iraq sticks to learn: What scenario is repeated after the 2010 Elections Empty Iraq sticks to learn: What scenario is repeated after the 2010 Elections

    Post by Bama Diva Tue 06 May 2014, 7:42 pm

    Iraq sticks to learn: What scenario is repeated after the 2010 Elections


    06/05/2014 10:00 AM



    About nine months he spent Iraqi politicians in 2010, until he
     was preparing for a deal to form a government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, albeit at the expense of the election results, which tipped the coalition «Iraq» led by Ayad Allawi.
    Such a thing does not seem far from likely possibility for the post of parliamentary elections late last week, there is almost a consensus that the time should wait Iraqis until after the birth of a new government, despite calls early Cklleha launched by the Prime Minister outgoing Nuri al-Maliki, also expressed his opponents also, most notably in the Shiite center, the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim, who has achieved electoral bloc «citizen» advanced pointing, according to preliminary indications, from what it was in the outgoing parliament.

    Nearly split-ups
    What indicators supports the long wait until the formation of
     the government, is that the split which prevented doing in 2010, is more complex and detailed this time, it is a close-ups in several levels:
    1 - Shiite center:
    If «the Islamic Supreme Council» of weakness to the extent that he was not able to meet the presidential mandate of the owners in 2010, it is the day of the power to the extent that he seems to be able to meet the ambitious without an end to the owners of a third term, but he offers two of its leaders as candidates for prime minister , and two former minister, 
    Bayan Jabr, and the leader of the «National Conference» 


    Ahmed Chalabi.
    Also, the Shiite party the other, a Sadrist, what he was able to stand up to pressure Iran, which announced clearly its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, for the formation of the «National Alliance» umbrella Shiite form «the biggest bloc» that were necessary to steal the «legal» for election results 2010., but he today announced more than once its leader out on the guardianship of Iran, and his rejection of any pressure to 
    build an alliance with al-Maliki again.

    As well as this, the coalition «rule of law», led by al-Maliki, will not be able to achieve the figures achieved in 2010, which will make his influence less influential, even though the top in terms of numbers of seats among all the blocks, and between the various political forces and sectarian and nationalism.


    2 - the Sunni center:
    What made this center a strong and influential in 2010, is a kind of «unity» assigned to Anadwaah in a coalition «Iraq», but today's distributor to the extent of dispersion, though it seemed a coalition «Uniting for Reform» led by Parliament Speaker Osama Najafi, is the strongest representation for the year in the new parliament. May be the call leader and governor of Nineveh province, Ethel Nujaifi, the Sunni forces of the alliance with the coalition, a kind of ward off the risk of continued division and dispersion, but the forces of coalitions and parties, and in the Sunni center looks closer to the non-acceptance, led by Najafi.They are closer to the alliance with al-Maliki, on the basis of being remained keen to stay in his government, even in the roughest conditions of government military campaigns on Fallujah and Hawija (2013) 
    and Anbar in general now.

    As well as this division that serves the interests of the Prime Minister in terms of facilitating the integration of the forces that have become known as «year-Maliki», was to split Sunni religious presence, too, highlighted the religious references Sheikh Abdul-Malik al-Saadi decreed the sanctity of elections, a day before conducting them, while insisting on the need to participate in , Grand Mufti Sheikh Iraqi Rafie al-Rifai.

    In addition to the features of the political divide and religious, was the deteriorating security situation, and in Anbar in particular, cause plus, making a substantial share of the Sunni center outside access to the election, though he arrived I just pour, as is rumored strongly, in the interest of prominent Sunni loyal to the owners of the candidates of the province hot.

    3 - Kurdish center:
    Kurds were in 2010 about the fear serious shift winning coalition «Iraq» Bmeulha Arabic, specifically in the disputed areas, to force fought them they saw in alliance with the Shiites and the acceptance of al-Maliki as prime minister, the lesser of two evils, but this no longer exists today, there is no Sunni Arabs are united, and the most powerful political bloc united reform »remained on their positions regarding the Kurdistan region, but that there is between the two sides, cooperation today amounts to a strategic coordination in the fields of oil and energy.

    It has become the President of Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, announces «We will not be part of Iraq's problems unless verify the election results the appropriate change», ie, that the role played by the Kurds not to accept al-Maliki, but also facilitate the formation of the government through the Conference of Arbil and tours talks marathon, which has sponsored American, will not be repeated probably, President Barzani says: «if it does not yield the results of the elections for a change in policy, and specifically in the positions of Baghdad (about the Kurdistan region) and if the worsening security situation, more will be forced Kurdistan to protect themselves and will not be part of the tensions and problems of Iraq».

    This is not the situation, but also that the split in the middle of the Kurdish, will be influential, too, may seem the party of President Talabani threatened loss of traditional influence, for the benefit of a new bilateral: «Party Barzani - the MDC», closer to compensate for his influence lost through the post in the next government, whether to the position of President of the Republic or in bags and Zraip as it is today.Maliki first
    Prime Minister began negotiations, is expected to be a long stretch (no one excludes the 2015 and Iraq without a new government) to ensure «the third term» Alktherarakie where it was said that the Iranian and American too.

    The most influential paper Maliki, will be split in the case of the Sunni center, a quasi-guarantor to support the current deputy, Saleh al-Mutlaq, a Sunni leader and other beauty Karbouli, though the latter alliance with «united reform» led Najafi. He also hopes to split the new among coalition «national» led by Iyad Allawi, and the support of the forces and Kurdish figures are not in complete agreement with the leadership of Barzani, as well as brandishing the positions of the Shiite figures of the party «virtue» and «Sadrists», and other independent within alliances small, It is what will make the premise for his opponents, if united, the right to form a government, very difficult, if not able to get it done.
    Government is headed by a Shiite al-Maliki

    There is another hypothesis is contrary to precedent, and it may be able to Shiites in the «Supreme Council» and the Sadrists, and Sunnis across «united» and the Kurds of the KDP, and the figures in the «coalition of civil democratic» of the formation of a broad coalition capable of forming a government, and the designation of head of its acceptable everyone, and the amount of influence of Iran in this regard.

    The increase in the waiting period for the formation of the new Iraqi government, even if it was built «broad coalition» needed her, is that it costs a party to form a government, is the President of the Republic, which will be chosen in the first session of the new parliament, and with the absence of current President Talabani, split up between the Kurds who hope to «monopoly» position, the procedural process such as this, will look plus factor complex, in another stage of the «new Iraq», which seems elusive to learn his failures and not repeated.
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