The 2010 scenario repeats itself... Expectations to delay the formation of the new government for se

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[size=52]The 2010 scenario repeats itself... Expectations to delay the formation of the new government for several months[/size]

[size=45]Translation: Hamed Ahmed[/size]
[size=45]Observers expected that the government formation crisis would continue for several months in a repetition of the 2010 elections scenario, noting that the coordination framework would not succeed in taking advantage of the deadline of the Sadrist movement's leader Muqtada al-Sadr to form a majority in light of other parties' adherence to the alliance with al-Sadr. According to a report by The National News website, translated by (Al-Mada),[/size]
[size=45]That "political experts and analysts confirmed that the political stalemate that Iraq is going through now may extend for months after the decision of the Sadrist movement's leader Muqtada al-Sadr to stop any political activity related to the formation of the government and give him a period of 40 days for the competing party to form a new government."[/size]
[size=45]The report added, "Al-Sadr's decision, which he took last week, came five months after the general elections and will give an opportunity to test his rivals within the Shiite coordination framework to negotiate the formation of a government that extends for a period of 40 days, starting on Saturday, the first day of Ramadan."[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out that "Al-Sadr had won the October 10, 2021 elections by winning the largest number of seats by 73 seats in the 329-seat parliament, but his opponents in the coordinating framework posed a great challenge to his ambition to form a national majority government."[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that "Al-Sadr made an alliance with strong winning parties, which included the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Sovereignty Alliance led by Parliament Speaker Muhammad Al-Halbousi, who pledged with Al-Sadr to form a national majority government and put an end to corruption and the quota system that was relied on in forming previous governments since the period after the fall of The previous regime in 2003, which guaranteed quotas and benefits for all the country’s different parties based on race and sect.”[/size]
[size=45]He noted, "It is not yet clear who owns the largest bloc in Parliament, due to the vague loyalties and movements of some politicians and parties."[/size]
[size=45]Laheeb Hegel, a political analyst with the International Crisis Group, said, "The Sadr movement has not pushed for any change in positions so far, but there may be a greater possibility to resume negotiations after Eid."[/size]
[size=45]And Hegel added, "A similar scenario we saw in 2010 when it took about 10 months to form the government, and with ignoring the current constitutional timings, there is still time, but with other possible options that may be in holding early elections."[/size]
[size=45]The report stressed, "The offer made by Al-Sadr came through a tweet to him, in which he also called on his followers not to conduct any activity or interference while his competitors are trying to form a government."[/size]
[size=45]He stated, "Several months have passed, and the political scene in Iraq is still going through a dead end, with the Sadrist movement unable to form a majority government, while al-Sadr criticized his rivals by saying: They have obstructed the government formation process and are still obstructing it."[/size]
[size=45]The report continues, "The parties also differed over the presidential candidate, a problem whose impact extends to the position of prime minister."[/size]
[size=45]As for Hegel, she asserts, “This Sadr movement will compel the parties to the coordination framework to modify their demands to ensure that the Shiite house agrees on the next prime minister and his government.”[/size]
[size=45]The report noted that “the Shiite coordination framework consists of the State of Law coalition led by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, which won 33 seats, and the Fatah coalition led by Hadi al-Amiri, which includes representatives of the Popular Mobilization factions, which won only 17 seats, regressing from its performance in the 2018 elections, which achieved It has 45 seats.[/size]
[size=45]Even if the framework could persuade the Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party to form a government together among themselves, Hegel believes “they will not accept leaving al-Sadr outside it, and the same applies to al-Sadr, who will not form a government without the participation of other Shiite parties in it.”[/size]
[size=45]In turn, Sajjad Jiyad, an Iraqi researcher and political analyst at Al-Jeel Foundation, said that "the position taken by Al-Sadr was expected and served as a way to relieve pressure from his movement and give an opportunity to others to assume the arduous responsibility of forming the government."[/size]
[size=45]Jiyad continued, "The movement is not very dangerous as much as it is a tactic to relieve pressure and leave the space and opportunity for others to see how little support they will receive from other parties."[/size]
[size=45]And he went on to say, "Iraq has at least another two-month deadline, until the political parties are able to agree on forming a government."[/size]
[size=45]Jiyad added, "Al-Sadr knows very well that it is largely impossible to form a government without him. Therefore, the coordinating framework will try to form a government that includes Al-Sadr, and he has already taken a specific position against some parties."[/size]
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