16 hours ago[/size]
Our budgets destroy the economy, and the economy criticizes it
We repeat the discussion of the budget annually, so we reduce it when oil prices drop, and we brag about it when it increases.
The sick philosophy (in Dutch) of our successive budgets will impose itself, and consumption, slackness, and corruption will find its objective and subjective encouragements. As for reconstruction, employment, investment, real sectors, and the economy, it is ink on paper, or lagging projects. Our budgets lack economic philosophy, and our economy lacks objective factors and work conditions, subjective factors such as incentives and guarantees, or both. Therefore, we will propose “heads of threads” to encourage production in the agricultural and industrial sectors, taking advantage of the budget proposal, and based on our real, not hypothetical, circumstances.
1- Conditions for production and support for agricultural outputs: We have water problems, obstacles, and backwardness of methods and means. With regard to grain - the main basis for agriculture and livestock - we see that to provide the objective condition for production and overcome the basic obstacles, the budget should allocate about (1-1.5) billion dollars to provide (thirty thousand sprinklers), with different capacities, an average of (100) dunums per sprinkler. Sprinklers are distributed as a priority for areas with little rainfall (100-200 mm/year) and far from rivers. Land dependent on groundwater, whose water is renewed at a rate of (4-6 billion/m3/year). Since wheat generally needs (2000 m3/dunum/season), we will irrigate (3) million/dunum, to be added to the areas irrigated by rivers and rains. In order to provide the required impetus, we see the importance of distributing sprinklers free of charge from the start, on the condition that the land is cultivated, and those who fall behind are withdrawn. As for the subjective condition, it is the purchase of crops at attractive prices and prompt payment. And if it is decided to install the amount of the sprinklers for years, then the installment can be deducted during the payment.
We have the necessary funds today, and we may not have them tomorrow. And we can, at record speed, and within our capabilities and conditions, and on the occasion of presenting the budget, revitalize the agricultural and animal sector. To activate with it a large chain of industries and other activities linked to it, to launch a process that will gradually form its escalating positive internal logic. This is sustainable "oil". It will absorb hundreds of thousands of workers, save scarce water, and expand cultivated lands, with all its economic, environmental, community and population benefits. Holding the “head of the thread” does not cancel the other policies, but rather complements and accelerates them. Increasing production in quantity and quality should be the goal of the “agricultural plan.” Not to solve water problems through imports and shrinking areas.
2- Controlling imports and subsidizing the national product: Our production is weak, and our spending is high. We save it through imports. Our imports (in 2020) according to the World Bank (54.265) billion dollars, (and more by calculating the unforeseen). There will be an objective requirement to control imports, support and protect the alternative national product. Which, in turn, will generate the self-factor and the incentive to entice the required investments. This requires self-confidence and not being afraid of the consequences that international institutions warn us about regarding policies of subsidy, spending, deficit financing and inflation. Our spending is here, to move production instead of imports, stimulate our real sectors, and get out of the unilateral rentier economy, all working to absorb deficit, inflation, real and disguised unemployment, etc.
3- We applied some of the above steps (2019-2020). The report (World Bank - Spring 2020) states: “The non-oil economy grew by (4.9%) on an annual basis. Agriculture was the largest contributor to the growth of all non-oil sectors, having expanded by a staggering 39%. Wheat production recorded (4.8) million metric tons for the period (2019-2020), an increase of (60%) from the year (2018). This led to an increase in the income available to the farmer and positive gains were achieved as import alternatives.” And in (2020) - a not wet year - wheat production recorded about (6) million tons, almost achieving self-sufficiency.
Measures (1 and 2) do not mean the entire economy, which will need large-scale infrastructure projects, pivotal projects, sovereign and investment funds, oil for reconstruction (China and the framework agreement) and joint ventures with neighbors and others. Rationalizing the public sector and its companies, confronting sluggishness and monopoly, setting serious standards for benchmarking, governance, efficiency, fighting corruption, and providing insurance, retirement, and other things for the private sector, just like the public sector. Mr. Prime Minister, the Sudanese brother, worked on this issue from his ministerial and legislative positions, and knows its terms and importance very well.
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