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Is Abadi prevents collapse of the state in Iraq?
28-09-2014 11:15 AM
Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
Formed the situation arising from the fall of Mosul, however, the organization of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known in the media as 'Daash', on June 9 last year, the decisive factor in the government of Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, as reflected in its structure, and composition, and the names of their leaders , and where political actors, and orientations along the lines of what came in the program.
It seems that without the fall of Mosul, and the subsequent fallout, he would likely be able former prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, to remain in office for a third term, despite the degree of defiance and rejection of the Parties to the internal, regional and international. Because of the policy of 'carrot and stick' which followed with his opponents and his supporters, as well as the mobilization of the public, especially the Shia, in a speech sectarian closed, Maliki could make the balance of power and interests intersect on his person. Therefore, it seems true that the fall of Mosul, is that Quicken is emitted, and has been widely acknowledged, both internally and externally, that the policies exclusionary followed by the years of his rule eight (2006 - 2014), especially in his second term, that have brought Iraq to this case. The American President, Barack Obama, for it clearly, in the first days after the fall of Mosul, when he said: created sectarian differences in Iraq and the situation fragile. 'In the absence of political efforts, any military moves would not succeed, there will not be any impact to any support, without achieving internal stability in Iraq'.
This was a speech meant that out-Maliki is a necessary condition to face the risk of Daash, and that this should be followed out the formation of a national consensus government, and policies, addressing grievances toward the year, and is working to integrate them into the ruling establishment more and more. Although this political reform must be preceded by a military confrontation Daash; so as to dismantle the incubators that are active within it, and rebuild the confidence of citizens in political institutions Sunni Arab public.
A road map to prevent collapse
Will be the main task for the government Abadi, therefore, more far-reaching, and wider than the face pack structural problems, complex and accumulated experienced by the Iraqi state after 2003, the failure to meet basic services, and the corruption of the executive branch and Ngolha, and yield economy devotes subordination of society to the state, and lock the democratic path, with the faltering political institutions and confusion the relationship between them, and sagging public sector, and the delay in adoption of the legislative framework for the CMOS structure of the state the guarantor of the nature of the relationship between political institutions and the basic rights of citizenship. The main task for the government in relation to this is the maintenance of Iraqi national unity. The shape of the fall of Mosul emblematic major collapse of the state, and the disintegration of the country, which has lacked, always, to the policies of the University, believes that the political system should be secure for all post flexible and effective, rather than compete Altnahari who took the character Hoiatia, is an existential threat to the state.
Specifically, the government will be in front of Abadi planning we are intertwined. Is it possible for this government to address them?
The first launch of the path of radical reform of the long-term to address the crisis of the political system that emerged after the American invasion in 2003, and brought the system to the brink of collapse; because it is based on the representation of identities, consisting of the country, and Thassa in power, not the system 'state - a nation', believes in partnership equal the components of the Iraqi institutions of power. These imbalances have been launched in the political system unleashed extremist forces within each component, and enabled them to occupy large areas, moving them on the lines of division and political community.
I've included the government program announced by Abadi in front of the House of Representatives, Neil on his confidence on the eighth of September / September of 2014, and before 'close political agreement' between the major powers, basic joints in this reformist path. But the line-up announced that can not meet the requirements of this political reform, especially as it was based on the parties themselves, which dominated the political scene in the eleven years that followed the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, including Shiite and Sunni. The lives of these Sunni parties, especially, a deep crisis in its relationship to its community.
But reform does not stop at the borders of the government formation, or address the crisis Sunni representation, through the re-definition of the Sunni elite list and qualify, or the launch of a transitional phase for the industry elite Sunni alternative, but it also includes a restructuring of the political system, through the re-formulation of the relationship between the components of community , and its political institutions and powers, and the center of the hand, and the region and the provinces on the other hand, defining formats partnership in the management of security and military institutions official, and wealth management.
The second task before the government is to contribute Abadi, through their behavior and policies, in the face of Daash. The reformist path, referred to above, the basic threshold in this confrontation; because of its role in the dismantling of incubators believed that, at a given moment, that is the only tool Daash possible, to get rid of the domination of the central government. We have grown in the space of resentment Daash escalating crisis in the formation of the second Maliki government in 2010, therefore, be the most fundamental element and necessary in the face of Daash is to address this resentment and absorption; robbed of their life.
I've taken control of this vision on the rest of the international arrangements, especially the American prepared to face Daash. It has been linked to timetables for dealing with Daash (such as the announcement by President Obama about his plan to address them, and then the Paris conference to support Iraq) by announcing the formation of the Iraqi government. Americans exercised considerable pressure to accelerate the composition of the government announcement, and presented to the House of Representatives, to gain confidence, before they begin any step to hit Daash.
In the same context, came the announcement of the formation of the National Guard, the Iraqi armed forces, was the adoption of its inception in the ministerial program to the Government of Abadi. The idea grew after the fall of Mosul, in order to move from national security to domestic security; any that limited the role of the army to protect the borders, while The National Guard to protect the province which is where. It consists of the National Guard of the fighters from the people of the province, and supervised by the local government, but it is part of the security establishment official, ie it is not a militia, along the lines of the Awakening forces created by the Americans in 2007, however, will be entrusted with the National Guard last part of the plan face Daash , a recovery of private land controlled by Daash, and stick to it. This means that these forces will be subject to, progress and transition, to support and rehabilitation (and perhaps supervision) Americans, including Americans declared, repeatedly, that they will not publish ground forces.
Variables governing the behavior of government Abadi
It is clear, therefore, that the government will work in the context of Abadi totally different to the one who worked the two previous governments of al-Maliki; will serve as the political actors to perform different to what they were doing during the last period. There are four variables and the head of overlapping, will govern the work of the Government of Abadi and determined, are:
• Stretch Daash: Daash formed the greatest challenge to the existing political system in Baghdad, after about a third of its control over the area of the country, has the form of this variable is the main factor in determining the structure and goals of the government and the main organizations and their leaders.
• change American strategy toward Iraq: Declined President Obama since he came to power, beginning in 2009, for any outside military intervention, except for the intervention in Libya in 2011, note that the intervention came under the decision of the UN Security Council, in order to protect civilians, have been through NATO, and embraced him, and Washington, the so-called leadership style from the back ( Leading from behind ). In spite of the ongoing transformations in the region within the framework of the Arab Spring revolutions and put the United States in front of significant challenges, particularly with respect to the situation in Syria, which has seen the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians and the use of chemical weapons in August / August, 2013, and especially that Obama himself had counted the use of these weapons 'red line', it refrained from military intervention. Obama has received because of the widespread criticism within the United States, seen in its policies towards the events in the Middle East and the expansion of Russia in Ukraine, was a contributing factor in the weakening of America's adversaries and dare them.
Therefore, the form of aerial bombardment of American positions Daash, on 8 August / August, after the assault on Mount Sinjar, and control over large areas of the Nineveh Plain, which are areas of high density Christian High, and displace Yezidis, and it approached the city of Arbil, a shift in strategy for Obama's foreign that came, in large part, in response to internal requirements. I've dropped the rise Daash and the collapse of the Iraqi army before Obama doctrine based on the reliance on local agents, to counter the threats, rather than direct military intervention, and it seemed Obama without convincing arguments, after he was accused of rushing to withdraw from Iraq, and to rely on local partners, can not be relied They, as well as the long silence on sectarian and exclusionary policies and retaliatory pursued by the former prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, towards the Sunni Arabs.
Did not force the rise Daash America to redefine the sources of danger that threatens American national security, but to take military action to fight them also; namely the same procedures that Obama was argued that it was the cause of the crises caused by the administration of his predecessor, George W. Bush.
And Iraq is the arena for the application of the basic new American strategy. And not because the theater Daash President, but because the United States is acting according to the 'feeling' represented responsibly historical, consequent to do something, as they are brought Iraq to the situation of destruction and chaos, having embarked on the occupation and change its political system in 2003 .
• closer to the Arab Gulf in particular, from Iraq: Daash expansion has led to the construction of various Arab approach toward Iraq and the issue of the central role of the Shiites in his reign. In general, there is a feeling that the Arabic failure of the Iraqi state and will not be extended Daash Aagafa at the borders of Iraq, but also represent a threat to all. Saudi Arabia has begun, in the recent period, a package of measures to cope with this expansion. They include monitoring Fatawa supporting Salafi incitements and tuned, and control the flow of jihadist elements to Iraq and Syria, and control sources of funding for non-official Daash. However, the most important of these procedures, which is a spirit approach Arabia new Iraq, is supporting the ruling establishment of Iraq, to restore the strength and capacity of representative, as a first threshold to face Daash, especially after the departure of al-Maliki, who formed his presence one of the main causes of tension Saudi - Iraqi in the period years.
• turning the front of the owners of the Shiite opposition to the primary component in the government Abadi feel this front that what has been termed the 'experience Shiite rule' and reached a crisis, it must be addressed. The major political parties expressed on this front, particularly the Supreme Council and the Sadrists, in past years, the positions of rejecting proprietary formula espoused by al-Maliki, also called for reform of the ruling establishment, and its openness to the rest of the components of Iraq.
In all cases, these factors open horizon in front of a serious government Abadi, to save Iraq from the specter of collapse, or division, or the Civil War. The exploitation of these conditions provides a test of the intentions regarding the override sectarian rule, particularly that conditions are favorable for it. It is especially examination of the forces of sectarian Shiite political relations with Iran, which controls currently on the scene. There is no doubt that the attempt to override that provision sectarian (if available sincere intentions) will face resistance extremists. This would include, in addition to Daash, militias and extremist Shiite political forces, starting with al-Maliki (belongs to the same stream Abadi) and his ilk, down to the League of the Righteous, and the Badr Organization, and others.
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28-09-2014 11:15 AM
Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
Formed the situation arising from the fall of Mosul, however, the organization of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known in the media as 'Daash', on June 9 last year, the decisive factor in the government of Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, as reflected in its structure, and composition, and the names of their leaders , and where political actors, and orientations along the lines of what came in the program.
It seems that without the fall of Mosul, and the subsequent fallout, he would likely be able former prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, to remain in office for a third term, despite the degree of defiance and rejection of the Parties to the internal, regional and international. Because of the policy of 'carrot and stick' which followed with his opponents and his supporters, as well as the mobilization of the public, especially the Shia, in a speech sectarian closed, Maliki could make the balance of power and interests intersect on his person. Therefore, it seems true that the fall of Mosul, is that Quicken is emitted, and has been widely acknowledged, both internally and externally, that the policies exclusionary followed by the years of his rule eight (2006 - 2014), especially in his second term, that have brought Iraq to this case. The American President, Barack Obama, for it clearly, in the first days after the fall of Mosul, when he said: created sectarian differences in Iraq and the situation fragile. 'In the absence of political efforts, any military moves would not succeed, there will not be any impact to any support, without achieving internal stability in Iraq'.
This was a speech meant that out-Maliki is a necessary condition to face the risk of Daash, and that this should be followed out the formation of a national consensus government, and policies, addressing grievances toward the year, and is working to integrate them into the ruling establishment more and more. Although this political reform must be preceded by a military confrontation Daash; so as to dismantle the incubators that are active within it, and rebuild the confidence of citizens in political institutions Sunni Arab public.
A road map to prevent collapse
Will be the main task for the government Abadi, therefore, more far-reaching, and wider than the face pack structural problems, complex and accumulated experienced by the Iraqi state after 2003, the failure to meet basic services, and the corruption of the executive branch and Ngolha, and yield economy devotes subordination of society to the state, and lock the democratic path, with the faltering political institutions and confusion the relationship between them, and sagging public sector, and the delay in adoption of the legislative framework for the CMOS structure of the state the guarantor of the nature of the relationship between political institutions and the basic rights of citizenship. The main task for the government in relation to this is the maintenance of Iraqi national unity. The shape of the fall of Mosul emblematic major collapse of the state, and the disintegration of the country, which has lacked, always, to the policies of the University, believes that the political system should be secure for all post flexible and effective, rather than compete Altnahari who took the character Hoiatia, is an existential threat to the state.
Specifically, the government will be in front of Abadi planning we are intertwined. Is it possible for this government to address them?
The first launch of the path of radical reform of the long-term to address the crisis of the political system that emerged after the American invasion in 2003, and brought the system to the brink of collapse; because it is based on the representation of identities, consisting of the country, and Thassa in power, not the system 'state - a nation', believes in partnership equal the components of the Iraqi institutions of power. These imbalances have been launched in the political system unleashed extremist forces within each component, and enabled them to occupy large areas, moving them on the lines of division and political community.
I've included the government program announced by Abadi in front of the House of Representatives, Neil on his confidence on the eighth of September / September of 2014, and before 'close political agreement' between the major powers, basic joints in this reformist path. But the line-up announced that can not meet the requirements of this political reform, especially as it was based on the parties themselves, which dominated the political scene in the eleven years that followed the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, including Shiite and Sunni. The lives of these Sunni parties, especially, a deep crisis in its relationship to its community.
But reform does not stop at the borders of the government formation, or address the crisis Sunni representation, through the re-definition of the Sunni elite list and qualify, or the launch of a transitional phase for the industry elite Sunni alternative, but it also includes a restructuring of the political system, through the re-formulation of the relationship between the components of community , and its political institutions and powers, and the center of the hand, and the region and the provinces on the other hand, defining formats partnership in the management of security and military institutions official, and wealth management.
The second task before the government is to contribute Abadi, through their behavior and policies, in the face of Daash. The reformist path, referred to above, the basic threshold in this confrontation; because of its role in the dismantling of incubators believed that, at a given moment, that is the only tool Daash possible, to get rid of the domination of the central government. We have grown in the space of resentment Daash escalating crisis in the formation of the second Maliki government in 2010, therefore, be the most fundamental element and necessary in the face of Daash is to address this resentment and absorption; robbed of their life.
I've taken control of this vision on the rest of the international arrangements, especially the American prepared to face Daash. It has been linked to timetables for dealing with Daash (such as the announcement by President Obama about his plan to address them, and then the Paris conference to support Iraq) by announcing the formation of the Iraqi government. Americans exercised considerable pressure to accelerate the composition of the government announcement, and presented to the House of Representatives, to gain confidence, before they begin any step to hit Daash.
In the same context, came the announcement of the formation of the National Guard, the Iraqi armed forces, was the adoption of its inception in the ministerial program to the Government of Abadi. The idea grew after the fall of Mosul, in order to move from national security to domestic security; any that limited the role of the army to protect the borders, while The National Guard to protect the province which is where. It consists of the National Guard of the fighters from the people of the province, and supervised by the local government, but it is part of the security establishment official, ie it is not a militia, along the lines of the Awakening forces created by the Americans in 2007, however, will be entrusted with the National Guard last part of the plan face Daash , a recovery of private land controlled by Daash, and stick to it. This means that these forces will be subject to, progress and transition, to support and rehabilitation (and perhaps supervision) Americans, including Americans declared, repeatedly, that they will not publish ground forces.
Variables governing the behavior of government Abadi
It is clear, therefore, that the government will work in the context of Abadi totally different to the one who worked the two previous governments of al-Maliki; will serve as the political actors to perform different to what they were doing during the last period. There are four variables and the head of overlapping, will govern the work of the Government of Abadi and determined, are:
• Stretch Daash: Daash formed the greatest challenge to the existing political system in Baghdad, after about a third of its control over the area of the country, has the form of this variable is the main factor in determining the structure and goals of the government and the main organizations and their leaders.
• change American strategy toward Iraq: Declined President Obama since he came to power, beginning in 2009, for any outside military intervention, except for the intervention in Libya in 2011, note that the intervention came under the decision of the UN Security Council, in order to protect civilians, have been through NATO, and embraced him, and Washington, the so-called leadership style from the back ( Leading from behind ). In spite of the ongoing transformations in the region within the framework of the Arab Spring revolutions and put the United States in front of significant challenges, particularly with respect to the situation in Syria, which has seen the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians and the use of chemical weapons in August / August, 2013, and especially that Obama himself had counted the use of these weapons 'red line', it refrained from military intervention. Obama has received because of the widespread criticism within the United States, seen in its policies towards the events in the Middle East and the expansion of Russia in Ukraine, was a contributing factor in the weakening of America's adversaries and dare them.
Therefore, the form of aerial bombardment of American positions Daash, on 8 August / August, after the assault on Mount Sinjar, and control over large areas of the Nineveh Plain, which are areas of high density Christian High, and displace Yezidis, and it approached the city of Arbil, a shift in strategy for Obama's foreign that came, in large part, in response to internal requirements. I've dropped the rise Daash and the collapse of the Iraqi army before Obama doctrine based on the reliance on local agents, to counter the threats, rather than direct military intervention, and it seemed Obama without convincing arguments, after he was accused of rushing to withdraw from Iraq, and to rely on local partners, can not be relied They, as well as the long silence on sectarian and exclusionary policies and retaliatory pursued by the former prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, towards the Sunni Arabs.
Did not force the rise Daash America to redefine the sources of danger that threatens American national security, but to take military action to fight them also; namely the same procedures that Obama was argued that it was the cause of the crises caused by the administration of his predecessor, George W. Bush.
And Iraq is the arena for the application of the basic new American strategy. And not because the theater Daash President, but because the United States is acting according to the 'feeling' represented responsibly historical, consequent to do something, as they are brought Iraq to the situation of destruction and chaos, having embarked on the occupation and change its political system in 2003 .
• closer to the Arab Gulf in particular, from Iraq: Daash expansion has led to the construction of various Arab approach toward Iraq and the issue of the central role of the Shiites in his reign. In general, there is a feeling that the Arabic failure of the Iraqi state and will not be extended Daash Aagafa at the borders of Iraq, but also represent a threat to all. Saudi Arabia has begun, in the recent period, a package of measures to cope with this expansion. They include monitoring Fatawa supporting Salafi incitements and tuned, and control the flow of jihadist elements to Iraq and Syria, and control sources of funding for non-official Daash. However, the most important of these procedures, which is a spirit approach Arabia new Iraq, is supporting the ruling establishment of Iraq, to restore the strength and capacity of representative, as a first threshold to face Daash, especially after the departure of al-Maliki, who formed his presence one of the main causes of tension Saudi - Iraqi in the period years.
• turning the front of the owners of the Shiite opposition to the primary component in the government Abadi feel this front that what has been termed the 'experience Shiite rule' and reached a crisis, it must be addressed. The major political parties expressed on this front, particularly the Supreme Council and the Sadrists, in past years, the positions of rejecting proprietary formula espoused by al-Maliki, also called for reform of the ruling establishment, and its openness to the rest of the components of Iraq.
In all cases, these factors open horizon in front of a serious government Abadi, to save Iraq from the specter of collapse, or division, or the Civil War. The exploitation of these conditions provides a test of the intentions regarding the override sectarian rule, particularly that conditions are favorable for it. It is especially examination of the forces of sectarian Shiite political relations with Iran, which controls currently on the scene. There is no doubt that the attempt to override that provision sectarian (if available sincere intentions) will face resistance extremists. This would include, in addition to Daash, militias and extremist Shiite political forces, starting with al-Maliki (belongs to the same stream Abadi) and his ilk, down to the League of the Righteous, and the Badr Organization, and others.
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