Edmonton Oilers

How Good Have Russell and Sekera Been?
April 11, 2017, 4:37 PM ET [37 Comments]
Matt Henderson
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSS • Archive • CONTACT
With the Playoffs set to begin there are a myriad of topics that I’ll want to look at. There will be matchups and results to peruse through, stories we’ll want to cover, and players to profile. But right now I’m really interested in one defensive pairing for the Oilers.

Since roughly around the time of the trade deadline I’ve been seeing some improvement from the game of Kris Russell and subsequently his pairing with Andrej Sekera. From Russell I’ve noticed a fair amount of jump in his legs. Certainly when he’s on his game he uses his feet more and carries the puck. When he’s off his game he’s much more static and his breakouts consist of rimming the puck around the boards. It’s a surefire way to turn the puck over to the opposition.

But as I mentioned, I started to see that pair and that player in particular in a more positive light. In fact, I was about ready to write about how his improvement couldn’t come at a better time and how it was a massive benefit to the Oilers in the playoffs to have a 2nd pair that could hold its own with regards to possession. After all, these are 7 game series’ and it’s a marathon not a sprint. It’s difficult to maintain success over time without the right process. In the case of hockey, that’s out attempting and chancing opponents on the regular.

Bad news. The minute I started to investigate how things have changed for that pair, I instantly realized that the process hadn’t changed for the better at all. Only the positive results had changed. I’ll try to clarify. Sekera and Russell have not been playing solid hockey backed by shot metrics and scoring chance information since early March. In fact, it looks like the shot metrics had gotten worse over that time.

Sekera and Russell have played 216:50 together 5v5 since March 1st 2017 and they have a killer 70.6% Goals For percentage. They also have been on the ice for 51.2 shot attempts for per 60 minutes and a whopping 67.5 shot attempts against per 60 minutes. That's a brutal 43.1% CF. The opposition has been spending a lot of time in the Edmonton zone while the pair has been out there. The real praise should be going to Talbot who has bailed the duo out to the tune of a 95.15 save percentage.

When we look at their PDO in that time frame, the Oilers’ 2nd pair has had an eye popping 106.9 PDO. That number over the long haul pulls very hard towards 100. Being above it typically signifies good luck. Being below it typically signifies the opposite. Sitting around 107 would be wildly above sustainable range. Even for ultra-talented players like McDavid we aren’t expecting percentages like that.

If you combine that crazy high PDO with shot metrics well below 50% you get a recipe for a hard correction. What my eyes were seeing were the offensive results, not the process. It’s impossible for the non-Sherlockian mind to absorb all the minute plays and keep tabs on them. We are hard-wired to take notice of major events like goals, huge saves, a great shot block. This is especially true of Hockey viewing. So my positive vibes for Russell lately almost certainly have been fueled by this ridiculous 106.9 PDO.

What concerns me is that with the playoffs set to begin, this pair is likely about to receive a huge boost in ice time. Maybe McLellan will keep all three pairs rolling, but when things get down to crunch time I foresee Todd and the gang to go down to Klefbom-Larsson and Sekera-Russell. Why that concerns me is because there’s a pretty good chance that decision will be made because Cam Talbot has been standing on his head, McDavid has been shooting the lights out, and not because that pair has been particularly good.