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Talbot has as much to do with Edmonton taking such large steps forward as anybody else on the team. Some might say he even has more to do with it than McDavid. I say, slow down with that talk, but there’s a case to be made at the very least. Tonight, the Oilers aren’t playing in front of Talbot. Tonight Brossoit gets the start so the pressure is on the skaters to make the difference in the game.
Over the past week we’ve seen Matt Benning take on a bigger role and with it he’s added more timely offense. He’s played 20ish minutes for the last two games while paired with Sekera. He’s scored a goal and added an assist. With Russell set to return, we don’t know where that leaves Benning, but he’s been a fancy stat favourite all year.
Edmonton found a real gem in the College Free Agent market with this kid. He’s not big but he likes to be physical. He’s smart, moves the puck quickly, and has some offensive instincts. There is some concern that he’s hitting a wall physically (or that he will soon). He hasn’t played more than 41 games in any of his last 3 seasons at college, he’s at 45 games and counting with Edmonton. When it comes to his play on the ice, I haven’t seen a player running out of gas. I see a player dying for more ice.
Matt Benning is 3rd on the Oiler blueline in Points per 60 minutes with 0.71 P/60. He’s 2nd on the blue in Corsi For percentage at 53.1%. He’s number 1 in Fenwick percentage at 53.4%. And, he’s 1st in goals for percentage at 58.8%. Yes, his PDO is pretty high, but there’s good process behind the good results. All of these things combined are great news for Oiler fans who look at the rookie defender and wonder if what they’re seeing is real. It looks like it is. When Benning is on the ice, the Oilers out attempt and outscore their opponents very consistently. Music.
When Edmonton prepares for the next 12-18 months, they may want to consider the possibility that Benning is going to push to enter the top 4 really hard. As it stands, I can’t make an argument to keep him off of Sekera’s pairing. I get that Russell is a veteran and yadda, yadda, yadda, but the results speak for themselves.
Sekera + Benning: 254:27, 52.6 GF%, 54.0 CF%
Sekera + Russell: 550:59, 57.1 GF%, 46.1 CF%
Now let’s try that with and without McDavid.
Sekera + Benning + McDavid: 90:25, 62.5 GF%, 58.1 CF%, 101.8 PDO
Sekera + Benning + No McDavid: 162:45, 45.5 GF%, 51.2 CF%, 99.0 PDO
Sekera + Russell + McDavid: 192:53, 75.0 GF%, 47.3 CF%, 107.2 PDO
Sekera + Russell + No McDavid: 358:06, 43.8 GF%, 45.2 CF%, 99.3 PDO
The shot attempts with and without McDavid all favor Benning. Whether it’s raw skill, the fact that he’s a right handed defender, or a combination of the two, Benning is a better partner for Sekera. The goals for favors Benning over Russell when McDavid isn’t on the ice, but WITH McDavid, the goals for percentage is clearly better Russell. Here’s the thing, the PDO jumps off the page. There is absolutely no way 107.2 can be maintained in the future and it’s obscuring the bad process with Russell. The inflated shooting and save percentages will be the first thing to go and when it does it’s going to come in the form of a lot of goals against.
Sekera and Benning. That’s a duo I want to see a lot more of moving forward.
LINEUP
It looks like Russell is about ready to return and in practice yesterday he was on the 3rd with Gryba, but Gryba is being scratched. Not sure what the pairs will look like. Oesterle was sent back to the AHL. Brossoit was 1st off this morning.
Maroon McDavid Eberle
Lucic Draisaitl Slepyshev
Caggiula RNH Kassian
Hendricks Letestu Pakarinen
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Benning
Davidson Russell
Brossoit
Talbot
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Dro-unbelievable. The 21 year old Jonathan Drouin is not leading the Lightning in scoring. He’s not even 2nd. However, he is an incredibly talented player capable of making game-breaking plays. That overtime shift from the other day was a thing of beauty to watch, and a reminder that if the Oilers give him time and space then he is more than capable of making defenders look stupid. Edmonton’s blueliners are not going to want to give him a zone entry so easily, but getting too close could be a recipe for disaster. He has 50GP, 17-19-36 and I think he’s has the skill to do more.
2) Back It Up. All signs point to Brossoit getting the start in this game, saving Talbot for the surging Panthers tomorrow. Laurent Brossoit has not had a great season so far, and this might be his last chance to instill some confidence in the Oiler brass before the Trade Deadline. Brossoit has played a little over 100 minutes in the NHL this year and has a .919 save percentage but you don’t need me to explain that sample size is small. The last thing he did was stand in relief for a pulled Talbot against the Hawks, where he stopped 4 of the 5 shots he faced. It’s been a month since he last started a game. If LB drops the ball it might force Chiarelli’s hand in getting a more prepared backup.
3) Don’t Rush To Judge. The Tampa Bay Lightning are ranked 13 of 16 teams in the East by points, but if the Oilers think this is going to be easy because of that then they might be in for a surprise. The cover of this book might look crappy, but a little closer look shows that the Lightning aren’t quite like their peers at the bottom of the East. To start with, the Lightning are only -6 in goal differential. Philly, Buffalo, New Jersey, Detroit, and Carolina are all -21 or worse. The Lightning have kept their games a lot closer than the others at the bottom. They are also the 7th ranked shot attempt percentage club in the NHL. If their goaltending had any consistency at all I think this team would be much, much closer to a playoff club. Not your typical fare at the bottom of the Conference.
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