Edmonton Oilers

G80 Oilers vs Sharks: Who Will Take Home Ice?
April 6, 2017, 2:39 PM ET [5 Comments]
Matt Henderson
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While the Oilers could still potentially win out and pass the Ducks for 1st place in the Division, it is more likely that Edmonton will finish 2nd or 3rd in the Pacific. Where they finish depends largely on tonight’s game. Calgary cannot catch the Oilers or the Sharks. Anaheim has a 4 point lead but Edmonton has a game in hand. A win over the Sharks should keep San Jose in 3rd spot and that leaves the race for 1st as the only question mark remaining.

Alternatively, a loss to the Sharks sets them up with home ice unless the Oilers can win out against the Canucks Saturday and Sunday. Personally, I would rather it not come down to that. Especially not when the Sharks are playing without Couture and Thornton and have a record of 3-7-0 in their last 10 games. They picked up two wins in a row against the Canucks, but points against Vancouver don’t impress anyone.

The Oilers are in a position to set themselves up with home ice advantage, something they haven’t had since, I think, the 1991 conference finals against Minnesota (hat tip Dennis King). In hunting that down it really hit home just how long it has been since the Oilers were a good team. It has been 26 years since the Oilers have had home ice advantage in a playoff series. Since the 90-91 season, the Oilers have only made the playoffs 8 times in total. My god.

So, Oiler fans, you’ve been waiting a ridiculously long time for something and all your team needs to do is score more goals than the Sharks tonight and it should happen. Home ice is no guarantee of anything and the Oilers are a good road team, but home ice advantage in the playoffs is a possibility in the 1st round and I think you deserve it.

The Sharks, despite their recent record are still a dangerous club. They still have Brent Burns patrolling the blueline. They still have Marleau and Pavelski. The only knock I have on Marleau is that he’s ancient and he’s incapable of smiling like a human. Other than that, he’s capable of putting the puck in the back of the net. Pavelski is still almost a point per game player even though he’s crossed into his 30’s. The Sharks have been injured all year. That’s been their Achilles heel this season.

Edmonton faces a relatively incomplete Sharks club. After a poor outing in Los Angeles, a lot of bad can be forgotten with a strong effort here.

LINEUP

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Pouliot Desharnais Kassian
Caggiula Letestu Pakarinen

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning

Talbot
Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Wonky Pair. This might come as a surprise to regular readers, but I’m beginning to get concerned with Matthew Benning. It’s not his overall talent that’s an issue. I worry about his health. Since his concussion his effectiveness in metrics like shot attempts has seen a real decline. In addition to the concussion he also sustained a knee injury from blocking a shot that saw him removed from a game. All these things together worry me because he’s been otherwise a dependably solid 3rd pairing player. It’s altogether possible that at this moment in time Gryba is the better choice for that Nurse pairing. The Nurse-Benning duo had an awful outing and I’m not basing any judgment on a single game, but it probably sways the coaching staff a lot more. I think the spot is now Gryba’s to lose over these final three games. Gryba is fine, but at their best I’d prefer Benning. I just don’t think he’s at his best.

2) No Jumbo. No Couture. This is a likely playoff preview but it will lack Logan Couture and Joe Thornton. Both have been felled to injury lately. Couture took a puck to the face and his return is not guaranteed. Thornton’s knee bent backwards during a collision on the ice and he claims that he will be back for game 1 of the playoffs. That gives him maybe a week to get back to playing speed. This game will set up Edmonton for Home Ice advantage in the playoffs and the Sharks are showing a weakness with those two out. Edmonton has to exploit this, just as they need to push Couture and Jumbo when/if they do return. Both players have roughly 40 points in 60 games. Couture leads the Sharks forwards in 5v5 P/60. Thornton is a leader in possession. Missing either is a huge blow. Edmonton has to capitalize.

3) Waking Up The 2nd Line. Three of the four goals scored by Edmonton in Los Angeles were by members of the 2nd line. Lucic and Nugent-Hopkins put Edmonton in a position to compete for the win before it all fell apart. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had his first 2 goal game of the season. This goes to show what kind of a season RNH has had as he is 2nd on the team in shots on net but not getting the goals for his trouble. Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins are 11th and 12th among Oiler forwards in 5v5 shooting percentage with 7.59% and 6.94%. Their 3 year average for the seasons before this one is 12.69% and 11.08%. So these two are getting 60% of the goals they would typically expect 5v5. Nugent-Hopkins has 7 points in his last 6 games. If he’s pulling out of his funk then it couldn’t have come at a better time. That 2nd line needs a center who is effective in all three zones. Nuge can be that guy again.