Defeat calls for change in the balance of power and launches a struggle to fill the vacuum in the ar

Defeat calls for change in the balance of power and launches a struggle to fill the vacuum in the areas restored

Political Since 2017-09-02 at 13:47 (Baghdad time)

Baghdad Mawazine News
The French daily La Croix published a report, in which it spoke of the features of a post-staging phase in both Iraq and Syria, as well as the changing balance of power in the region .
The newspaper said in its report that the successive defeats of the organization in Damascus and Iraq is opening the way to try to change the balance of power in the region .
"In fact, the defeat of this organization in its strongholds does not mean that the crisis will break out, as other battles, political and not military, are about to break out in order to divide power in the liberated areas of the extremists. The situation is back to what it was before the intervention of this terrorist organization . "
The newspaper pointed out that "the process of concentration of the Kordestani system in these areas and often, reflects the reality of the city of Manbaj, the Syrian, which is inhabited by about 100 thousand people, what may turn out to be in Raqqa, a stronghold of the former advocate, where the extremists are withdrawing daily. What remained of the terrorists in August 2016, a new regime replaced the nightmare of an oppressive organization in Manbaj, embellished with Kurdish colors . "
The "civil council", which governs the city, is supposed to represent the entire population, but the Kurds hold true power in its core, while the police are subject to their influence and due to their role in liberating the city on the one hand and protecting it from elements of an oppressive organization on the other hand, The Kurds, who belong mainly to the People's Protection Units, established a Kurdish regime .
In fact, Turkey sees Syria's democratic forces as a mere representation of the PKK, its arch-enemy, which it classifies as a "terrorist" organization. Ankara, on the other hand, can not To intervene without confronting the United States, which is arming and supporting these forces to fight an oppressive organization . "
In the meantime, Damascus sees no danger or threat of growing Kurdish influence on Syrian territory, at least for now. In addition to organizing a preacher, Syria fights many enemies from terrorists or rebels .
According to Jordi Tidal, a historian and professor at the International Institute for International Studies and Development in Geneva, the regime seeks to focus its efforts on confronting other enemies, rather than restoring Kurdish-controlled territory .
On the other side of the border, in Iraq, the war against an organization has been stirring up the aspirations of the Kurds. But while their project seems vague in Syria, their goal on the Iraqi side is clear and explicit: independence .
If the Kurds agree to independence, which is very likely, the application will not be immediate, especially since consultations on this subject are causing many parties to panic .
It should be noted that both Turkey and Iran are concerned that the Kurdish minority on their territory will be inspired by the idea of ​​voting, following the example of Iraqi Kurds. On the other hand, the United States, which strongly supports the Kurds in Iraq, is concerned about the outbreak of confrontations between Baghdad and Erbil, which would hinder the war against a sympathetic organization .
The newspaper said that the Iraqi state itself fears the Kurdish ambitions to control the "disputed areas," which calls on the federal government and the regional government to extend its influence on them. Among those areas, the oil-rich province of Kirkuk, whose local council announced on Tuesday (August 29th), intends to participate in the referendum .
"The multiplicity of belligerents of the Da'id organization further complicates the division of power in Iraq, especially among the Shiites and Sunnis. Moreover, this deepens the problem of the fate of minorities in this country, including Christians." "In Mosul, there is a state of political chaos and confusion about the administration of the region, " said Hossam Dawood, an anthropologist specializing in Iraq .
As for the intervention of the two regional poles (meaning Saudi Arabia and Iran) in a post-confederation, the status of the Iraqi government to Iran, which enjoys a prominent presence in Baghdad and is one of the supporting parties of the Iraqi state in its war against the organization, is uncertain. "Iran is expected to try to exert more influence in Iraq, " said Mohammad Reza Jalili, an honorary professor at the International Institute for International Studies and Development in Geneva .
The newspaper said that the Iraqi state may have interests of rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, the main rival of Shiite Iran. "In contrast to what appears on the political scene, the Iraqi government is trying to distance itself from Tehran because it has a clear interest in developing its economic relations with Saudi Arabia," he said . Finished

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