Rebellion of troops and imminent collapse of the Saudi alliance in Yemen (expanded)
The British writer David Hurst highlighted the signs of collapse that began to appear in the Land Forces Alliance formed by Saudi Arabia for its Yemenite operation against the Houthis two years ago.
In an article on the Middle East website, Hurst said that on March 25, 2015, the Saudis launched their operation in Yemen called Hazem Al Hazm. By 21 April, it was officially announced that the storm was over, but air strikes continued, and air strikes Were thrown at hospitals and schools, and once on a wedding in Sanaa, part of an operation called "Restoring Hope."
"After two and a half years, the collective misery of the Yemenis from all tribes continued, but the alliance of ground forces is beginning to show signs of collapse. Divisions have begun to emerge between Yemeni and foreign ground forces fighting against the Huthis in the country, which could threaten the future of the Saudi-led coalition. "
Sudan
The Sudanese writer, who forms the bulk of the 10,000 foreign fighters inside the coalition, has a high casualty toll. A source close to the Khartoum presidency told the Middle East website that more than 500 Sudanese fighters have been killed in Yemen so far.
Two months ago, commander of the Sudanese army's rapid intervention force, Major General Mohammad Hamdan Hamidati, told the Sudanese newspaper al-Khobar that 412 fighters had died, including 14 officers.
"The pressure is being exerted intensively to withdraw from this fighting," the Sudanese source told the Middle East A website.
"About 8,000 Sudanese fighters, led in part by Emirati officers, are taking part in the fighting," he said.These fighters are deployed in southern Yemen as well as in the south and west of Taiz in Mukha. President Omar al-Bashir himself began to rethink the matter, but still mentions the billion dollars deposited by Riyadh in the Central Bank of Sudan two years ago and followed by a deposit by Qatar amounted to 1.22 billion dollars.
But he is not pleased with the title of "mercenary president" and has other relationships to consider, Hurst said.
"On Thursday, Bashir joined the ranks of Arab leaders who are turning their faces toward Vladimir Putin's door. He told the Russian president that he needs protection from the United States, that he is against confrontation with Iran and that he supports the policy of keeping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power."
The British writer recalled that Bashir's step came after an incident occurred inside the country months ago, which was described by many parties as a spying and attempted coup, because Taha Osman al-Hussein was dismissed from his post as Director of the Office of the Sudanese President after the disclosure that he holds a Saudi passport and residence visa in the UAE The United Nations, and was caught up in secret contacts with the parties.
Yemeni Reform Group
Hurst said that on the other hand, the rebellion was taking hold among Yemenis, who two and a half years ago welcomed the Saudi intervention against the Houthis who were seeking to take control of the whole country.
"The largest organized combat group on the ground in the coalition ground forces in Yemen is the Yemeni Rally for Reform, whose current relationship with the Saudis is least described as conflicting. Perhaps this is related to the fact that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the close associate of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, is very hostile to the Yemeni reform group belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood. "
According to the article, "Emiratis used the Sudanese forces to impose a siege on Taiz, the stronghold of the Yemeni Rally for Reform, with its siege from the south and the west, in addition to the siege of Taiz from the Houthis in the north. However, the Saudis are hosting the leadership of the Yemeni Rally for Reform in Riyadh and hosting the internationally recognized Yemeni president Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. "
"The line between staying in the hotel and staying in prison is very high these days in Riyadh, and that applies to Yemeni guests as well as to Lebanese guests," says the British writer.
As a source close to Hadi describes the conditions in which the Yemeni president lives in Riyadh, he is "comfortable and pleasant but lacks freedom." He said Hadi was actually like someone living in a "cage of gold," not allowed to visit Yemen or make statements, Will be allowed to leave for treatment within the United States.
The leaders of the Yemeni Reform Group in the regions inside Yemen have the freedom to act and show their activity that they do what they want. They now feel the political price they are paying for the support of a campaign that has turned Yemenis from liberation to occupation.
As they are paying a price of their lives, has been killed or attempts to assassinate a number of sheikhs and reformists as well as some Salafis who objected to the UAE leadership.
He continued: "The list is growing, was assassinated on the seventh of December 2016 Khalid Ali al-Aramani, the leader of the reform of Abyan, and on the twenty-third of November 2016 was assassinated in Hadramout Sheikh Abdullah bin Amer bin Ali bin Abdat al-Kathiri, and on January 5, 2017 was assassinated in Hadramout Abdel Majeed Patis (a relative of the leader of the Yemeni Reform Union Salah Batis), and on 17 January 2017 was assassinated Mohammed bin Lashkum, Deputy Director of Civil Status in the province.
It is enough to harm us. This is how local reform leaders are now talking, prompting them to consider launching direct negotiations with the Houthis, a source of internal reform told the Middle East website.
The source said: "Emiratis are not hiding their hostility to reform, and they are the sheikhs and reformists are being assassinated, and this is coordinated by the militias loyal to the UAE. In addition, the UAE is clearly tightening the siege on Taiz and preventing support for our fighters inside the city. As a result, a large number of reformists and members feel that we are paying a heavy price for this alliance, especially as the support of the Saudi alliance among Yemenis who supported the intervention two years ago reached their lowest levels. "
According to Hurst, the Hesba reform is based on three pillars:
First, the reform still has a force of about 20,000 fighters, who keep them as reserves. Accordingly, the reform leadership believes that if it starts negotiating with the Huthis, it will do so from a strong military position.
Secondly, regional leaders began to establish their presence and forces in Marib and Al-Jouf without paying attention to the wishes of the rest of the components of the Saudi-led coalition.
"Reform has sacrificed a lot to be part of the alliance, but we are not getting the fruits of those sacrifices," says the reform source. "The plots are being hatched against us by a member of the coalition, the United Arab Emirates. This is why the leaders of the regions in reform began to make decisions themselves to strengthen their presence in Marib and Al Jouf, without reference to the alliance and without committing to its decisions. "
Thirdly, the reformists believe that the Huthis may have had their own reasons for wanting to talk, especially as the Houthis consider the mass rally in Sana'a, their former ally Ali Abdullah Saleh, a coup attempt.
Despite the repeated denial of Saleh, Hurst said, the Houthis believe that he has crossed the red line and has sparked a war between the two sides. Since then he has not been heard in favor of a voice and is believed to be marginalized, but the feeling of the Huthis that they have been betrayed by him has not dissipated.
Amman
Hirst points to the Saudis' attempt to pre-empt the rebellion in reform by giving greater attention to reform leadership in Riyadh. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently met with leader of the Yemeni Reform Rally Mohammad al-Yidumi.
The result was a storm of sarcastic commentary in the media, as the Crown Prince considered the Muslim Brotherhood in other countries a terrorist group.
In addition, the Saudis allowed Vice President Hadi, Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, to return to the front lines near the capital, Sana'a, oblivious to Abu Dhabi's objections to that. And that the Red team is considered close to the Islamic forces that topped the scene in Yemen after the Arab Spring, which began to spark in 2011. However, the rules of reform within Yemen, these movements are very few and they came very late.
"As if the competition between the external forces in Yemen does not complicate the situation, Oman entered the line. It considers southern Yemen its backyard, and is deeply concerned about the Emiratis taking over a series of strategic ports and islands. A Qatari diplomat describes the UAE takeover as "the emirates floating empire on water". And this also bothers the Omanis a lot of inconvenience. "
Omanis are now in contact with tribal leaders in southern Yemen, some of them following the separatist forces, with the aim of organizing a "coordinated response" to the militias funded and administered by the emirate of Abu Dhabi, the article said.
"In conclusion, the first military adventure launched by the 32-year-old Saudi prince as defense minister proved to be a tactical and strategic failure.
The prince, praised in the Western circles as a young reformer who will spearhead the campaign against Iran, has only succeeded in uniting the Yemenis against him, a rare achievement in a highly polarized world. He has already shot on his feet, not once, but many times. "
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