[size=32]Washington must withdraw its withdrawal from Basra
- 3 Hours Ago
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[size][url][/url][/size]On September 28, the US State Department ordered the closure of its consulate in Iraq's oil-rich Basra province temporarily after the compound was targeted by rocket fire. This move has given rise to confusion because the general consulate in Basra is specifically designed to resist such attacks. More troubling, it sends the wrong message to both Iran and the US allies about President Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran, suggesting that Washington may not be prepared to face even the slightest retaliation from Iran. In addition to the fact that such a message is not encouraging allies, it also calls for more attacks, which may exacerbate America's repeated failure to respond to Iran or its agents when they target US facilities.
Attacks on US diplomatic facilities
On 7 September, Iraqi youths looted and burned the Iranian consulate in Basra and the local offices of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia. Since then, Tehran's proxy militias have harassed US diplomats and threatened them with a series of rocket attacks, as follows:
- Between 7 and 8 September, three 107-mm rockets and another 122-mm rocket from eastern Baghdad were fired at US Embassy facilities in the capital, but fell away from the Grand Compound, which was considered an unusual lack of precision, Such as a warning.
- On 8 September, two 107mm rockets were fired at the US consulate in Basra, near the international airport, both of which fell off the airport, in another sign that the rockets were again on alert.
- On 28 September, three more 107-mm rockets were fired at the consulate in Basra. Two of them hit the consulate building but caused no damage or casualties.
Just hours after the last strike, Washington announced its intention to suspend operations in Basra and temporarily withdraw its diplomats. The US State Department also updated its travel alerts to Iraq, urging Americans to refrain from visiting the country and reiterating its warning that "US citizens present in Iraq are at high risk of violence and kidnapping."
Survival bonuses in Basra outweigh risks
There is no doubt that the closure of the US Consulate General in Basra was driven by abundant caution about protecting US personnel. Iranian-backed militias are gaining strength in the region day after day, increasing the risk of kidnapping and making it more difficult for consular staff to deal with the Iraqi authorities involved. The risk of regular rocket attacks or even attacks by militia-backed demonstrators is a real threat. Iraqi security forces may prove unwilling to defend the consulate against the latest threat, as it allowed the rioters to invade the Iranian consulate in Basra on June 7 and the Turkish consulate in Mosul in 2014, among other such incidents.
None of these risks, however, seems sufficient reason to close the US consulate in Basra, as each of these risks can be mitigated or eliminated. Abductions can be prevented by temporarily closing the consulate and setting up events inside or near it - for example, anywhere else within the airport complex that has its own defenses within its perimeter and its own entry controls. Unlike the Iranian and Turkish consulates, the US consulate in Basra is located outside the city within the airport complex, whose defenses can be temporarily reinforced by Iraqi elite forces (for example, the Counterterrorism Service or the Rapid Response Forces of the Basra Operations Command). The Iraqi government's willingness to offer such protection may seem more appropriate than giving an order to withdraw all US personnel.
Moreover, although rocket attacks are clearly alarming, the consulate in Basra has been designed - and at a high cost to US taxpayers - to continue its work under this kind of bombardment. American and British personnel have been stationed near Basra airport for more than a decade, and have resisted periods of up to 40 shells per night or near them. They kept their compound in Basra under any circumstances to show that coalition partners in Iraq would not give in to intimidation and were forced to abandon the city to militias. However, at present, five rockets in a single month could have pushed America to pack its bags.
Even putting aside the serious symbolic effects, there will be serious operational implications for the consular's survival, which eventually leads to the United States and American companies being saddled with the cost of losing many political and economic opportunities at this vital stage. Last month, Iraqis in Basra showed their anger at Iran by attacking its important consulate in the center of the city, which has long been a symbol of the Islamic Republic's boldness in a city that suffered the brunt of the war between Iran and Iraq. But instead of demonstrating its commitment to the poor and resentful people of Basra, Washington allows itself to be harassed to force it to withdraw. US diplomacy has just begun to make progress there under the leadership of the very active and effective Consul General, Timmy Davis.
The Basra consulate is also essential for growing US energy investment in southern Iraq. After the slow start of several companies such as Chevron, Exxon Mobile, General Electric and Orion Gas, these companies are increasingly interested in earning billions of dollars from local businesses and are expected to be representatives of The consulate attended a major investment conference in Basra held in Istanbul between 9 and 10 October. Giving up these opportunities to Chinese, Iranian and Russian companies would be appalling because the United States spent $ 1.5 trillion in Iraq before its military withdrawal in 2011. However, this could happen precisely if American diplomats were evacuated at a minimum Problem. On the other hand, the return of Basra consulate to its full activity will send a strong message reassuring American companies that are really cautious about investing in Iraq.
In addition, US companies are leading efforts to redirect the huge amount of natural gas Iraq is wasting due to combustion. The use of this gas will not only help Baghdad meet energy needs during summer peak periods, it will also reduce the $ 100 million Iraq spends monthly on Iranian gas - payments that in the pasthad [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps "Hizb allah".
Recommendations for US Policy
The US State Department should work quickly to obtain firm guarantees from the Iraqi government, which will soon be formed on the provision of additional security reinforcements to the consulate in Basra, the airport and the eastern marshlands often used to fire rockets. It should also deal with outgoing Prime Minister Haider Abadi and next prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi in efforts to ensure that US personnel are safe from kidnapping. When Washington gets these assurances, it must rush to announce the return of its diplomats to Basra.
If the US government has more widespread concerns about the cost-effectiveness of its presence in Basra, the issue must be separated from its interaction with Iranian-backed intimidation. While it may be justified to narrow its presence or modify it in any way, this time is not appropriate for withdrawal. If necessary, consular officers can temporarily work, keeping them at the consulate so that their presence on the ground is limited while undertaking high-level public relations efforts to underscore the US commitment to Basra. The United States spends more than $ 250 million a year on this largely unused strategic consulate, but can be reimbursed 10 times if an American energy company wins even one medium-sized infrastructure project.
More importantly, the US presence that represents the entire government in Basra will prevent Iran from achieving any propaganda victory there, counter its domestic influence, and reduce its financial gains from gas exports to Iraq. If Washington is serious about pressuring Tehran, it must prove that the United States can withstand retaliation, or send a clear signal to Iraqis, Iranians and other parties - both hostile and sympathetic - in the Middle East that America is intimidated.
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