Shafak News / For weeks, Iraq has witnessed a decrease in tension over its lands between its American and Iranian allies, with rocket attacks and retaliatory raids stopping.
However, experts warn that this will be quiet to re-line the two camps in preparation for a new round of confrontations.
When two American and British soldiers were killed by a missile attack in mid-March, the US Department of Defense envisioned a potentially more devastating US response to Iraqi armed factions.
"Even if there is no missile launch, the Iranians will regroup," said Philip Smith of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
He added that "the American forces at the moment, take the threats very seriously."
Last month, the US Department of Defense began devising a comprehensive plan aimed at striking more than 100 sites simultaneously against Iraqi armed factions, especially the Hezbollah Brigades, the faction Washington accuses of launching the deadliest attack against Western soldiers in years in Iraq.
"The Americans have told us that they will simultaneously strike 122 targets in Iraq if more of their citizens are killed," a senior Iraqi official told AFP at the end of March.
The Hezbollah Brigades faction in Iraq operates under the umbrella of the PMF, which has been integrated into government forces, and is carrying out an Iranian agenda by targeting American forces.
But hitting those many goals in a country that continues to accuse Washington of violating its sovereignty, and its representatives voted to end the American military presence in the country, may have dire consequences, according to what even the American leader of the international coalition against ISIS, led by the United States, says.
And General Pat White expressed his fear that things will get out of control, when he expressed in a telegram to the US Central Command in March "concerns" that the targeted groups will respond and expose thousands of coalition forces to a "serious" risk, according to what AFP has learned from a military official An American see White's note.
Two diplomats from two countries members of the International Alliance told France Press that other members of the alliance expressed their fear that the US attacks would be counterproductive.
With the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, 2,500 military trainers of various nationalities within the international coalition left Iraq without a return period, while the remaining soldiers, the majority of whom are Americans, gathered in a limited number of bases, two of which are now protected by the Patriot air defense missile system that they deployed Washington recently.
Meanwhile, new "mysterious" actors have emerged, which are seen by diplomats, experts and officers as "mere imaginary groups" of Iran's supporters in Iraq.
A group calling itself the "Revolutionary League," has adopted rocket attacks, and published photos taken by plane flying to sensitive sites in the US embassy in Baghdad, and Ein al-Assad base in the west of the country, despite the flight ban.
Another faction calling itself the "Islamic Resistance Factions Iraq - the fist of guidance" called for the assassination of the American and British ambassadors if they did not leave the country.
"With us or against us?"
Smith indicated that the Iranians “can ignite the fuse once the conditions are more favorable to them” after the harsh US strike that killed General Qassem Soleimani, the architect of Iranian strategy in the Middle East.
The United States, whose ties to Baghdad have fallen to their lowest levels since Soleimani was killed, will send a delegation to Iraq next June to renegotiate military and economic ties between the two countries.
Meanwhile, Iraq may witness the birth of a new government, after five months of vacancy, with the assignment of intelligence chief Mustafa Al-Kazemi, known for his negotiating skills, from Washington to Tehran, via Riyadh and Beirut.
"It's a sword-bound relationship, and it shouldn't be," said an Iraqi official close to the talks.
But researcher Renad Mansour, from Chatham House, considers that the United States is putting pressure on Baghdad to "choose a party, which is risky. It is as if they are telling them are you with us or against us?"