The confusing situation in the region is disrupting Al-Sudani's visit to Washington

POSTED ON[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] BY [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

[size=52]The confusing situation in the region is disrupting Al-Sudani's visit to Washington[/size]

[size=45]Translated by: Hamed Ahmed[/size]
[size=45]A report by the American SOUFAN Center for Studies dealt with the upcoming visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, to Washington in mid-April at a time when the government is trying to make its way through multiple currents that are disturbing the region and calls for keeping the country away from any American pressure, anticipating the agenda of the visit. It broadly includes not only the security aspect, but also political and economic relations.[/size]
[size=45]The study notes that although a broad agenda is expected for the visit, the main driver for it revolves around the US-Iraqi negotiations to reduce the US military presence in the country, and the current US military mission includes approximately 2,500 members for the purposes of advice, assistance and training to enhance the Iraqi army’s capabilities to confront ISIS threats.[/size]
[size=45]Regardless of the appearance that American officials may submit to a significant reduction in forces, the developments that occurred during the past two months may have changed Iraqi calculations and reduced the possibility of a significant reduction in American forces.[/size]
[size=45]The two governments are now reassessing whether the ISIS threat to Iraq has declined to the point where the advisory and training mission can be ended or significantly reduced. The attack that targeted a theater outside Moscow on March 22, in which approximately 140 people were killed, and which was claimed by ISIS, caused global intelligence agencies to reassess the level of the terrorist organization's ability, which had been underestimated.[/size]
[size=45]In Iraq, government forces announced on March 28 that they had killed a prominent leader of the organization, Samir Khader al-Nimrawi, which suggests indications of the return of the organization’s threats in the country.[/size]
[size=45]According to the Iraqi authorities, Al-Nimrawi was responsible for transporting military equipment, militants, and explosives between Iraq and Syria. During a hearing in late March for the Commander of the US Army’s Central Command, General Michael Corella, before the Congressional Security and Defense Committee, he said that US intelligence estimates indicate that approximately 1,000 ISIS militants are still active inside Iraq. However, there is controversy over the extent of the organization’s strength. In Iraq and Syria, it is still unresolved.[/size]
[size=45]It is possible that the Sudanese Prime Minister will discuss with President Joe Biden and other American officials regarding the internal situation and the set of challenges facing the government, which include the threats of ISIS and groups of armed factions calling for the removal of American forces and Iran’s attempts to impose its influence, in addition to the economic difficulties.[/size]
[size=45]The study also indicates that President Biden and other American officials are certain to take advantage of Al-Sudani’s visit to encourage Baghdad to maintain pressure on Iranian-backed groups that are still hostile to America, despite the decline in the face of American retaliatory attacks on their facilities. American officials are convinced that Iraqi moderates from the majority of parties will turn a blind eye to America's support for Israel in the Middle East crisis and oppose any increase in Iranian influence inside Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]Many Iraqis believe that siding with Iran will be a factor that distances Iraq from the Arab world. During the recent visit of the Iraqi Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein, to Washington to prepare for the Sudanese visit, the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said that the joint strategic framework agreement between Iraq and the United States not only discusses security relations, but also includes many areas of economic cooperation that the government considers Sudanese issues are vital, including water, energy, environment, and service provision.[/size]
[size=45]The report states that American companies invested extensively in these and other economic sectors after the overthrow of the previous regime in 2003. It seems that Baghdad does not want to give up American investments and other economic benefits, as the Iraqi Foreign Minister stressed that his country remains an important partner for the United States, Noting that Baghdad seeks to continue joint efforts with the United States to build Iraq's economy.[/size]
[size=45]The report indicates that it is unlikely that Baghdad will distance itself from the United States due to ideological or political pressure from Iran or Iran’s allies in Iraq, or even from general popular sentiment critical of the United States’ position on the ongoing war in Gaza.[/size]
[size=45]However, there is still an open question as to whether Iraq will be willing or able to take a position against armed factions if they resume attacks against American bases in the country, especially after the Israeli raid on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which caused the death of senior leaders in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Which is certain to be faced with an escalation from Iran and its proxies from the resistance forces in the form of a response by Hezbollah factions in Lebanon against Israel and more Houthi missiles and drones against targets in the Red Sea or by armed factions in Syria targeting American forces there, and there may be a response. More direct than the Iranian Revolutionary Guard itself.[/size]
[size=45]About: Soufan Center for Studies[/size]
[size=45][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]