Home
The Coming Phase Transition & the Dow
Posted on August 27, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong,
Thanks for all you do. I do have one question in regards to the Phase Transition above 23000 into the 35000-40000 number you have spoke of. If we experience a close below 15500 for the month of August and see a continued correction into October to around the 12000-13000 number would the top end thereafter be 23000 or would there still be a possibility of a phase transition regardless of when the low takes place, be it August or October? Thanks for the clarification.
Tim
ANSWER: No. The three targets are price: 18500, 23000, and 30000-40000. That is independent of TIME. The doubling is the minimum. Our original forecast that the Dow would at least double by 2015 from the 2009 low of 6440 gave us a MINIMUM target of 12000-13000. We exceeded that and went to the next target of 18500. The next level being 23000 is at the MINIMUM requirement for a Phase Transition — double, if we fell back to retest the old doubling target, but we need not pull back that far. The criteria is to turn the majority bearish to run into bonds.
A lot of e-mails have been coming in saying they can now tell who follows us and who does not. The followers are selling bonds into the high and others who do not follow are buying. That is probably a fair statement.
Our target for the high was 2015, and so far it formed in May in equities leaving the ECM for the interest low, which was also on target. Those who continue to predict a collapse in the stock market as some catastrophic event where only gold will rise, have no clue that gold is by no means a viable safe-haven for the big money — that is for the individual.
Big money must choose between equities and bonds. We are at effectively reaching a 5,000-year low in interest rates. It cannot get more bearish than this for government. What we face is monumental. Trump is tapping into this anti-establishment momentum and the press is showing how corrupt they are constantly attacking Trump to maintain the establishment who they surrendered their ethics to a long time ago.
This entry was posted in Future Forecasts, Q&A and tagged Big Money, Bonds, Phase transition, World Interest Rates from 3000 BC by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36568
Posted on August 27, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong,
Thanks for all you do. I do have one question in regards to the Phase Transition above 23000 into the 35000-40000 number you have spoke of. If we experience a close below 15500 for the month of August and see a continued correction into October to around the 12000-13000 number would the top end thereafter be 23000 or would there still be a possibility of a phase transition regardless of when the low takes place, be it August or October? Thanks for the clarification.
Tim
ANSWER: No. The three targets are price: 18500, 23000, and 30000-40000. That is independent of TIME. The doubling is the minimum. Our original forecast that the Dow would at least double by 2015 from the 2009 low of 6440 gave us a MINIMUM target of 12000-13000. We exceeded that and went to the next target of 18500. The next level being 23000 is at the MINIMUM requirement for a Phase Transition — double, if we fell back to retest the old doubling target, but we need not pull back that far. The criteria is to turn the majority bearish to run into bonds.
A lot of e-mails have been coming in saying they can now tell who follows us and who does not. The followers are selling bonds into the high and others who do not follow are buying. That is probably a fair statement.
Our target for the high was 2015, and so far it formed in May in equities leaving the ECM for the interest low, which was also on target. Those who continue to predict a collapse in the stock market as some catastrophic event where only gold will rise, have no clue that gold is by no means a viable safe-haven for the big money — that is for the individual.
Big money must choose between equities and bonds. We are at effectively reaching a 5,000-year low in interest rates. It cannot get more bearish than this for government. What we face is monumental. Trump is tapping into this anti-establishment momentum and the press is showing how corrupt they are constantly attacking Trump to maintain the establishment who they surrendered their ethics to a long time ago.
This entry was posted in Future Forecasts, Q&A and tagged Big Money, Bonds, Phase transition, World Interest Rates from 3000 BC by Martin Armstrong. Bookmark the permalink.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36568
» Parliamentary Finance Committee discusses amending the three-year budget
» utube 11/26/24 MM&C MM&C Iraq News-Central Bank Iraq-Monetary Stability Excellent-Budget Law 2023,
» "Rich Iraq" seeks "money" to combat methane emissions: internal and external obstacles
» Increase in foreign remittance sales at the Central Bank of Iraq auction
» Its area is 2.5 million acres, and these are its details.. Work begins on a "large" residential city
» Kurdistan Finance delivers employees' salary schedule to the federal government
» Beggars are sweeping the streets of Iraq.. Their numbers are "large" and 90% of them receive welfare
» Settling tax trust claims
» Launching the National School Health Strategy
» Approval to implement service projects in Babylon
» New container handling berths at ports
» Work: Demand for registration in social security
» Reconstruction: Land Bank to be completed next year
» Aiming to enhance services in schools and prevent diseases, the National School Health Strategy for
» Karmian Festival witnesses the conclusion of commercial and industrial contracts
» Focus on the banking sector
» Minister of Trade: Studies Center is a turning point that serves the Iraqi economy
» Economists: Census is a roadmap for development
» Today's newspapers are interested in Al-Sudani's announcement that the population of Iraq exceeds 45
» International Development Bank: Today's incident was an extortion attempt that did not affect our wo
» thirty-sixth session, chaired by the Minister of Planning
» Closed meeting of the Parliamentary Finance Committee to discuss seven files
» The demographic boom in Iraq: an economic opportunity or a social burden?
» Al-Sudani confirms to Russian delegation Iraq's desire to establish a mechanism that brings mutual b
» Parliament holds its session headed by Al-Mashhadani and attended by 168 MPs
» The Iraqi government deducts 1% of the salaries of employees and retirees to donate to Gaza and Leba
» Iran announces its commitment to continuing gas exports to Iraq
» Iraq, Russia discuss energy cooperation
» British Home Secretary to visit Iraq tomorrow
» The next parliament will have 450 members.. Officially, Al-Sudani announces that the population of I
» US Ambassador Warns of 'Frightening Actions': Iraq Does Not Want to Be Drawn into Regional Conflict
» Planning: The announced census results are not preliminary and the number will increase
» Election “hype” begins early.. Al-Maliki insists on holding it and Al-Sudani prepares
» “No more delays”.. Parliament changes the mechanism of holding sessions: “Controversial” laws are re
» Al-Mashhadani to the heads of the blocs: I prefer to vote on the general amnesty law before anything
» Iraq ranks 8th in the Arab world in achieving work-life balance in 2025
» Labor announces issuance of more than a quarter of a million national cards for social protection be
» Iraqi-Chinese research on accelerating combined cycle power projects
» Al-Maliki praises the decision of the International Criminal Court and demands the resolution of the
» Al-Mashhadani calls for voting on the general amnesty law for the “oppressed” before other laws
» Yazan Mishaan Al-Habouri revolts against his "leak": There are those who obstruct the government's e
» US Ambassador: Ending the presence of the international coalition in Iraq is being implemented and w
» Al-Mashhadani directs to raise the suspended laws to the Presidency of the House of Representatives
» "His general situation is unbearable" .. Parliamentarian: Political consensus to keep Iraq away from
» Al-Sudani agrees to launch the “For Her” initiative to support Iraqi women
» Development Bank condemns extortion attempts: It will not affect our workflow
» Iraq-China oil-for-reconstruction deal faltering: A geopolitical shift in the Middle East
» Planning reveals the next step of the census: We will visit these families
» Parliamentary Finance Committee calls on the government to expedite sending the budget tables
» OPEC+ may extend oil cuts at its meeting next Sunday
» Parliamentary Integrity Committee discusses with the Director of Central Oil the file of contracts a
» Government notice regarding the legal status of foreign workers
» House of Representatives holds "important" session today.. Expectations of extending the legislative
» Slight rise in dollar prices against the dinar in Iraqi stock exchanges
» Baghdad "softens" and Kurdistan oil prepares to continue its global journey
» "For 5 million dinars or in installments" .. Iraqi electric cars soon on the streets
» Where did the Intelligence Bill get to in the House of Representatives?
» "Contract Suspicions Series"... What are the loopholes in the Korean air defense system contract in
» MP reveals latest developments in the formation of the new Kurdistan government
» Personal status: imposing a vision or turning Iraq into a copy similar to the Iranian religious regi
» Oral question to the governor.. Parliamentary movement regarding the “Basra, the Economic Capital of
» MM&C 11/25/24 Parliamentarian: We need to extend the legislative chapter to 8 sessions and the bud
» Al-Alaq: The monetary situation in Iraq is excellent and our reserves support the stability of the e
» utube 11/25/24 MM&C MM&C Iraq News-CBI Building Final Touches-Oil Exports-Development Road-Turkey-B
» Parliamentary movement to include the salary scale in the next session
» Parliamentary Finance Committee reveals the budget paragraphs included in the amendment
» Al-Maliki calls on the Bar Association to hold accountable members who violate professional conduct
» Politician: The security agreement with America has many aspects
» Kurdistan Planning: More than 6 million people live in the region, the oldest of them is 126 years o
» Al-Alaq: Arab consensus on the role of central bank programs in addressing challenges
» Economics saves from political drowning
» Agriculture calls for strict ban on import of "industrial fats" and warns of health risks
» Iraq is the fourth largest oil exporter to China
» Railways continue to maintain a number of its lines to ensure the smooth running of trains
» Parliament resumes its sessions tomorrow.. and these are the most important amendments in the budget
» Bitcoin Fails to Continue Rising as It Approaches $100,000
» Minister of Planning: There will be accurate figures for the population of each governorate
» Popular Mobilization Law is ready for voting
» Mechanisms for accepting people with disabilities into postgraduate studies
» Government coordination to create five thousand jobs
» Transport: Next month, a meeting with the international organization to resolve the European ban
» Census is a path to digital government
» Calls to facilitate loans and reduce interest rates for the private sector
» The launch of the third and final phase of the "population census"
» Al-Sudani: We have accomplished a step that is the most prominent in the framework of planning, deve
» Justice discusses modern mechanisms to develop investment in real estate and minors’ money
» Dubai to host Arabplast exhibition next month
» Al-Tamimi: Integrity plays a major role in establishing the foundations of laws that will uphold jus
» Reaching the most important people involved in the "theft of the century" in Diyala
» Transportation: Completion of excavation works and connection of the immersed tunnel manufacturing b
» Between internal and regional challenges... Formation of the Kurdistan government on a "slow fire" a
» Kurdistan Region Presidency: We will issue a regional order to determine the first session of parlia
» The Minister of Foreign Affairs announces the convening of the Ambassadors Conference tomorrow, Mond
» Al-Sudani: Iraq must always be at the forefront
» Al-Mashhadani: We support the Foreign Ministry in confronting any external interference that affects
» Al-Sudani chairs meeting with Oliver Wyman delegation
» Half a million beggars in Iraq.. 90% of them receive welfare salaries
» Sudanese announces preliminary results of the general population and housing census in detail