The main challenges facing OPEC now and in the future
16/4/2018 12:00 am [rtl] Dr. Falah al - Amiri 1 - 2 Although the main factors affecting the volatility of oil prices, traditionally, are the fundamentals of the market mainly of supply and demand but to Aaijeri in isolation from other factors that affect the volatility of oil prices , such as, the fluctuation of the dollar, economic growth for some Important developments or growth of the world economy, wars, economic embargoes, geopolitics, weather and natural disasters, technological development, growth of renewable energy sources, legislative changes and OPEC's response to oil price volatility. When the fundamentals of oil markets affect oil prices negatively, For many cases , the impact in the oil markets by reducing the gap between supply and demand in order to balance the market and raise oil prices, and this is what happened when OPEC finally intervened in 2016 to halt the deterioration of oil prices , which reached the brink of collapse. Oil prices If we return a little to the beginning of the crisis in the second half of 2014, OPEC decided not to intervene and followed the policy of waiting and follow-up until the arrival of the state of balance of oil markets, but after two years of low prices, OPEC reached the conviction of the need to change its policy and intervene in the oil market and control the deterioration The price of oil, which reached the lowest level in February 2016 and the limit of $ 29 a barrel. The Organization realized that it should use a policy different from that adopted in 2014, and decided to intervene for the purpose of balancing the supply and demand of oil in world markets by controlling its oil production. Therefore, the participation of non-members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the exchange of views and discussions to find common ground to balance the world oil markets on a wider scale . Freeze production The discussions among the OPEC countries to hold a conference in September 2016 in Algeria to discuss the oil markets and find the best steps to be taken to achieve balance in the oil markets, and it was agreed in principle to freeze production or reduce according to the proportion to be agreed later depending on the size The production of each member country in addition to involving non-OPEC countries within the agreement to enhance the effectiveness of the implementation of any future agreement. On Nov. 29, OPEC and Russian-led oil producers reached an agreement on the Declaration of Cooperation (DCA) between OPEC and non-Opec oil producers, under which the output of those countries was reduced by 1,600 mb / d. This announcement was a milestone in the history of OPEC as it gathered 24 oil producing countries and cooperation between them in order to understand the mechanisms of the oil markets and work on the withdrawal of surplus oil spread in warehouses scattered around the world, especially in developed countries, which rely heavily on the production of participating countries in the DCA, which began Implementation at the beginning of 2017 has continued until now. This historic agreement has been successful in its implementation by contributing to the balance between supply and demand through the withdrawal of oil stocks. This has led to balancing oil markets and raising oil prices to a level that helps OPEC countries and non-OPEC members reduce their budget deficits. In the following lines, we will address the assessment of the DCA agreement, the benefits it has given to oil producers around the world and the producers affected, OPEC's response 15 months after DCA and the challenges OPEC will face in the future, especially alternative energy sources such as electric cars and energy And environmental developments. Assessment of the DCA Agreement It is necessary to identify the parties that benefited and those affected by the implementation of the DCA. In terms of revenue generated by oil producers, all DCA countries, other oil producing countries, independent oil producers and other countries benefited from higher revenues of hundreds of billions Of dollars contributed to the financing of government budgets and reduce the deficit and encouraged the increase in oil investments, which decreased as a result of the decline in oil prices . As for the impact of the Convention on production, the picture here is different. The agreement excluded some OPEC countries such as Libya, Nigeria and Iran, which benefited by increasing their production in addition to the revenues they achieved as a result of higher prices. This certainly applies to producers of non-OPEC countries Such as Norway and Britain, as well as the United States. But despite the important step taken by the DCA countries, the rest of the producers, led by rock producers in the United States, who have reorganized themselves and managed to increase their production without interruption, which led to an increase in the US market in the international market, which reached historical levels Exceeding 10.5 m / b / y. Options for leaving the DCA Agreement There are ongoing discussions and discussions between the OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the DCA on how to deal with this agreement after the end of its term to avoid any negative impact on the world oil markets and oil prices, in order to reach the best options Available to maintain the Convention. In the short term, the first option may be the announcement at the June ministerial meeting that DCA will be abandoned by the end of 2018. In this regard, there may be concern that this may have a negative impact on oil markets and oil prices. The second option is to delay the decision to cancel the agreement and only refer to the continuation of the agreement in the assessment of oil markets in the coming period until the ministerial meeting in November 2018, the third option is to keep the situation as it is now and delay the decision in May and June ministerial in 2019. The fourth option is to reduce the reduction of oil production agreed to in the Convention, for example, to reduce production from 1.758 m / d to 1 m / d / 750,000 m / d, or to include the production of Nigeria, Libya and Iran. This option may lead to the most positive aspects, where OPEC can avoid the negative effects on oil prices and have sufficient time to monitor and study markets, as well as follow the growth of oil production and its effects on the balance of the market, and if the adoption of these options, Iraq to make intensive efforts to reduce the amount (210,000 b / d) to support Iraq's post-conflict reconstruction efforts. Some initiatives For the purpose of enhancing OPEC's performance in the face of ongoing and future challenges and in response to developments and changes taking place in the world oil markets, OPEC is constantly trying to change its strategy from time to time to avoid losing its initiative in rebalancing the markets and ensuring a sustainable market share and balanced prices. OPEC now has an opportunity to sustain negotiations with producing countries, particularly those involved in the DCA agreement, to build a long-term policy and strategy to achieve the Organization's objectives and to overcome current and future challenges, particularly the problem of the growth of oil production. Where there is an important opportunity to develop the current agreement and formulate a new policy aimed at taking measures to mitigate the negative effects on the production of DCA countries and find a balance between increasing market share on the one hand and to obtain acceptable price levels. The success of the DCA agreement to restore the gradual balance of the oil markets during the period of implementation was the result of diplomacy, intensive negotiations, excellent management and follow-up by the Ministerial Oversight Committee, which exerted outstanding efforts, which contributed to the implementation rate of about 100%. This has encouraged the creation of solid ground for the emergence of important initiatives. One of these initiatives is the extension of the DCA agreement to a long period, such as five years or more, or the formation of a new organization to replace OPEC, which includes independent oil producers, OPEC countries and any other producer countries. In order to produce these ideas and proposals, it is very important to initiate the preparation of in-depth studies in order to reach a sound decision.[/rtl] [rtl]http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=155547 [/rtl] |
Today at 6:51 pm by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/26/24 Iraqi Dinar - US Treasury Exchange Rates- Focus - Banking Partnerships - Rate C
Today at 6:11 pm by Rocky
» Sudanese advisor criticizes Kuwaiti analyzes regarding the development road project
Today at 3:21 pm by Rocky
» Al-Mandalawi stresses the need to strengthen economic and trade cooperation between Iraq and Poland
Today at 3:04 pm by Rocky
» Power maneuvers: America provides defensive weapons to Kurdistan in exchange for withholding from Ba
Today at 11:26 am by Rocky
» Kuwait is drilling an oil well near Umm Qasr, towards Iraqi territory
Today at 11:24 am by Rocky
» In the document... the first Iraqi ministry identifies the obstacles to changing the new official wo
Today at 11:22 am by Rocky
» Italian Institute: Iraq is stuck in its own crises, including Baghdad’s efforts to undermine the “au
Today at 11:21 am by Rocky
» The head of the Integrity Commission announces the holding of an international Interpol conference i
Today at 11:18 am by Rocky
» Planning: Iraqi companies are not efficient in conducting the population census
Today at 11:14 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/24/24 Support - USA- Turkey - Timing- Currency Value - Tabled
Today at 9:08 am by Rocky
» MM&C 4/25/24 National Bank of Iraq goes live with Temenos core banking and payments
Today at 9:06 am by Rocky
» A banking official indicates a "danger" to Iraq by depriving more than half of its banks of dollars
Today at 8:55 am by Rocky
» With the participation of the Association of Private Banks, investment opportunities are on the tabl
Today at 8:45 am by Rocky
» Within a month... an Iranian border crossing recorded a noticeable increase in exports of goods to I
Today at 8:44 am by Rocky
» The Association of Private Banks appreciates the efforts of the government and the Central Bank to c
Today at 8:43 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki's coalition presents a third candidate for the position of governor of Diyala
Today at 7:57 am by Rocky
» Arab gathering: The Kirkuk problem is getting complicated and the Sudanese must intervene
Today at 7:56 am by Rocky
» Next week.. a Kurdish delegation will visit Baghdad to meet with the Minister of Finance
Today at 7:54 am by Rocky
» Under the pretext of salaries... Al-Party refrains from handing over port revenues to Baghdad
Today at 7:53 am by Rocky
» Association of Banks: For the first time, we are witnessing a clear targeting of depriving half of t
Today at 7:51 am by Rocky
» Parliament does not know the reason for the delay in sending the 2024 budget schedules: Voting takes
Today at 7:49 am by Rocky
» Applicants for the 2024 Hajj are demanding that the Central Bank secure the dollar for them through
Today at 6:09 am by Rocky
» Governmental and private banks will showcase their services tomorrow during Financial Inclusion Week
Today at 6:08 am by Rocky
» Iraq's oil exports rise despite OPEC+ cuts
Today at 6:06 am by Rocky
» A study explodes a "surprise"... Iraq is among the countries that export oil to "Israel": How is the
Today at 6:04 am by Rocky
» Al-Araji emphasizes working to strengthen national identity
Today at 6:02 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani visits Saudi Arabia to participate in the World Economic Forum in Riyadh
Today at 6:01 am by Rocky
» Iraq is talking about producing one million additional liters of gasoline
Today at 5:59 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers approves the implementation of the Baghdad Metro project
Today at 5:56 am by Rocky
» Minister of Commerce: We formed a joint economic committee with Türkiye
Today at 5:55 am by Rocky
» Resources: Government measures have contributed to improving the water situation in Iraq
Today at 5:53 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: Baghdad will continue to send salaries to the region’s employees until settle
Today at 5:51 am by Rocky
» A parliamentarian describes the corruption of Iraqi ports as “ghouls” and reveals the involvement of
Today at 5:49 am by Rocky
» Obelisk Hour: Basra is the subject of political conflict and ambiguity over the fate of the funds al
Today at 5:48 am by Rocky
» Turkmen leader: An agreement on the local government of Kirkuk is near
Today at 5:45 am by Rocky
» Anbar calls for the operation of its factories despite financial obstacles
Today at 5:44 am by Rocky
» Turki: The crisis of the Presidency of Parliament prompted the Sunnis to amend the Council’s interna
Today at 5:43 am by Rocky
» The Agriculture Committee confirms the existence of Iraqi-Turkish-Iranian discussions on water
Today at 5:42 am by Rocky
» Resources diagnose the challenges facing the water file in Iraq
Today at 5:38 am by Rocky
» Parliament pledges to the Interior Ministry: We will transfer money to buy weapons from citizens
Today at 5:33 am by Rocky
» Al-Issawi is the closest.. Parliament sets the date for deciding the choice of the new president
Today at 5:31 am by Rocky
» Deputy: Iraq's investments have risen and need a comprehensive review of previous years
Today at 5:30 am by Rocky
» Iraqis consume 7 billion eggs annually and import about $900 million
Today at 5:28 am by Rocky
» The Iranian role complicates attempts at open cooperation between Iraq and Turkey. Turkey is trying
Today at 5:26 am by Rocky
» Move in Iran to obtain $242 billion from Iraq in compensation for the eight-year war
Today at 5:25 am by Rocky
» 12 decisions from the Council of Ministers regarding the Baghdad Metro and Najaf-Karbala train proje
Today at 5:23 am by Rocky
» Sudanese Advisor: The path to development has begun... the Baka and the militias “we silence them wi
Today at 5:21 am by Rocky
» Not from Kurdistan.. How did Iraq become a source of oil for “Israeli tanks”?
Today at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Agriculture criticizes the Sudanese and Erdogan agreement: Türkiye will control water
Today at 5:16 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi government issues new decisions
Yesterday at 3:35 pm by Rocky
» The story of “reduced oil” to Jordan, from “compulsion” to mutual benefit.. Is there a loss?
Yesterday at 3:33 pm by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers takes 12 decisions for the Baghdad Metro and the Najaf-Karbala train
Yesterday at 3:32 pm by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/23/24 Iraqi Dinar - IQD Update - Development Road Project - Saviour of Global Banking
Yesterday at 11:18 am by Rocky
» Kidney from pig transplanted into deathly ill New Jersey woman — and begins working almost immediat
Yesterday at 11:15 am by Bama Diva
» The most difficult option.. Warnings of the danger of floating the Iraqi dinar without achieving an
Yesterday at 10:48 am by Rocky
» Trade from the “Economic Committee” with Türkiye: It will overcome all obstacles facing the traders
Yesterday at 10:46 am by Rocky
» Washington's hope for stable relations with Baghdad clashes with Iraqi parties' rejection of the Ame
Yesterday at 10:41 am by Rocky
» Karim Badr: Development is America’s will to kill silk
Yesterday at 10:36 am by Rocky
» Oil: Opening of a new port for liquid gas for vehicles in Baghdad
Yesterday at 10:33 am by Rocky
» A media advisor warns of corruption in a draft law on the Parliament’s agenda
Yesterday at 10:21 am by Rocky
» Economist: There is serious work to lift US sanctions on Iraqi banks
Yesterday at 10:16 am by Rocky
» Will the agreements signed with the US Treasury reflect positively on the exchange rates?
Yesterday at 8:52 am by Rocky
» Iraq continues its quest to join the World Trade Organization
Yesterday at 8:51 am by Rocky
» Iraq completes the completion of the files for the initial offer of goods and services to join the W
Yesterday at 8:50 am by Rocky
» Economist: Travelers' dollars are leaking into the parallel market...and this is what the Central Ba
Yesterday at 8:32 am by Rocky
» President of the Federal Court: It is not permissible to force anyone to join any party, and the pol
Yesterday at 8:30 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers holds its session headed by Al-Sudani
Yesterday at 8:27 am by Rocky
» America weakens Baghdad...and increases Kurdistan's military capabilities
Yesterday at 8:26 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi government plans to build 10,000 schools throughout the country
Yesterday at 8:23 am by Rocky
» American threats close the Iraqi Stock Exchange at a loss
Yesterday at 8:21 am by Rocky
» Increase in external transfers at the Central Bank
Yesterday at 8:20 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki calls on Britain to cancel restrictions on the entry of its companies into Iraq
Yesterday at 8:18 am by Rocky
» Planning and the European Union are discussing signing a number of agreements in the development, en
Yesterday at 8:16 am by Rocky
» Parliament talks about the mechanism for recovering smuggled funds and hints at the next stage
Yesterday at 8:13 am by Rocky
» Interior Ministry: The number of completed national cards reached 37 million cards
Yesterday at 8:06 am by Rocky
» Amnesty International: Violations of freedom and human rights continue in Iraq and the Kurdistan Reg
Yesterday at 8:04 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Oil: The government is proceeding with the decision to raise the price of improved gas
Yesterday at 8:03 am by Rocky
» A parliamentary committee in Basra to investigate violations of the port company and the local gover
Yesterday at 8:00 am by Rocky
» Revealing the 10 most important American exports to Iraq
Yesterday at 6:31 am by Rocky
» A noticeable increase in the rate of Iraq's import of Chinese cooling devices
Yesterday at 6:30 am by Rocky
» Prime Minister: Working on projects without completing the infrastructure is a waste of money
Yesterday at 6:28 am by Rocky
» Iraq.. Extending the deadline for registration procedures on plots of land
Yesterday at 6:27 am by Rocky
» What is the main purpose of conducting the population census in Iraq?
Yesterday at 6:25 am by Rocky
» A plan to transform Iraq from a barren land to green with 5 million trees
Yesterday at 6:24 am by Rocky
» The Housing Fund announces the acceptance of more than 11 thousand loans through the Ur platform
Yesterday at 6:23 am by Rocky
» The Bank of Baghdad is moving to increase its capital to 400 billion dinars
Yesterday at 6:20 am by Rocky
» The electronic payment system will soon be adopted on Iraqi buses
Yesterday at 6:19 am by Rocky
» “It threatens our interests and destroys our economy.” An Iraqi project “irritates” the Kuwaiti stre
Yesterday at 6:18 am by Rocky
» Warning from the Central Bank about “misuse of electronic payment cards”
Yesterday at 6:17 am by Rocky
» Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman are discussing sending capacities through the Gulf countries
Yesterday at 6:16 am by Rocky
» The fact that a decision was issued to deport Syrian workers from Iraq
Yesterday at 6:14 am by Rocky
» Rice comes first... America exports 10 foodstuffs worth more than 350 million dollars to Iraq
Yesterday at 6:14 am by Rocky
» A sixth licensing round for gas exploration
Yesterday at 6:12 am by Rocky
» Baghdad is preparing to host the 50th session of the Arab Labor Conference
Yesterday at 6:11 am by Rocky
» Scientific symposium on the future vision of the tripartite budget
Yesterday at 6:09 am by Rocky
» Five conversion power stations enter service in Najaf
Yesterday at 6:08 am by Rocky
» Planning: Conduct a population census next November
Yesterday at 6:07 am by Rocky
» Experts: Spreading misleading information harms development and investment
Yesterday at 6:03 am by Rocky