External factors that control the movement of local indicators
| By: Wab1|
of Sunday 14/2/2016 1:26
Agencies / Baghdad news
unanimously economists and analysts Financial experts in the local stock markets
to external factors troubled prevailing global economic environment on top of the deterioration of oil prices over the last 18 months, is the biggest in control of the movement of money market indicators in the state between boarding and sometimes between the landing times the other, which is primarily responsible for the violent fluctuations in the stock markets during the past period over the last year up to the present time this year.
stressing that the strong earnings of key companies listed effects, as well as the distributions generous accompanying her, on capital markets activity in the limited state the relative short-term does not exceed a range of only a fraction of the successive sessions that quickly overruled by a ghost «profits» to force them to go down again.
They pointed out that recent studies and analyzes related monitoring of the activity of transactions in the domestic capital markets demonstrate that the correlation coefficient between the vertical movement of the indicators in the the state, up or down, and the frequent data on the performance of the major economies around the world in a continuous Adtarad.
noting that the stability of the markets, the state and the recovery and return trip to climb again depends on the stability of financial markets in various countries around the world, particularly in both America and China, as well as improved world oil prices, the expectation that the decline of local indicators scenario will continue through the first and second of the current year quarters as less appreciated.
, said Reza Muslim, manager and partner in the company «Truth» economic Consultancy, said the negative data that offer a truly unique global environment at the moment, as a result of the frequency news of the relegation violent in oil prices, which lost more than one third of its value over the past year.
as well as the outlook on the further coming off of the levels are very low, due to the large decline in demand compared to an oversupply, coupled registered a slowdown in the right major economies such as China, with a strong and immediate impact on the performance of the capital markets in the country more than ever.
He pointed out that the survival of these factors and their continued presence is constantly unit oscillations serving in local stock prices go up and down, in addition to the continuing fluctuations in the movement and the performance of the general indicators of the balance decline during the next phase.
He stressed that the monitoring and analyzes revealed that the profits of listed companies effects on capital markets activity in the very limited state does not exceed the range of only one or two meetings, quickly eat up their gains to profit taking decisions, despite the strength of the announced results associated with the distributions generous, especially in the banking sector companies.
and accept Wadah Al Taha, a member of the National Advisory Council in stock and consulting the British Institute in the UAE, the results of an analytical study of which ended recently, revealed that link local capital markets equation and affected their performance positively or negatively by external factors is rising fast, encircled effects in three key global factors oil markets, indicators of the US market, and the index of "Shanghai" in China.
According to the study comparing different periods, first examined the correlation strength between global data and the movement of local indicators over the 2015 full, and the second measured the correlation coefficient since the beginning of this year, noting that the effects State was the primary reason for the large declines witnessed by the capital markets in the state. imbalance Taha said that the uncertainty about the global economy dominated by the imbalance between supply and demand for the first commodity in the world, namely oil, which illustrated increasing global oil supply before receding demand for it in return, noting that the world's markets, including the local stock markets reeling from the pressures exercised by the drop in oil, which promote panic among investors and dealers. he predicted the continuation of the series of declines indicators capital markets in the country during the first quarter of this year as less appreciation, especially in light of the international energy agency that benefit the survival of the global demand for oil within the current levels during the first and second 2016 quarter outlook, with the expectations of an improvement orders by the third quarter of this year. predisposition and between Taha that the great volatility in local markets has created among investors and traders tendency speculative and temporary, far from being a long-term investment options, which exacerbated fluctuations in stock in a banner, particularly in the Dubai market, despite the strength of the financial results of listed companies, the rate of distributions generous contributions to the shareholders when compared with current prices for stocks. He the dealers local stocks ignored the strong fundamentals for each of the financial markets in the state, as well as neglected as well as the fundamentals of the national economy strong, attributing the reason to the three external factors identified by the analytical study of the above. Two factors , in turn, Walid al-Khatib, Managing Partner rated at the company «Global» stocks and bonds, the effects on the movement of domestic indicators through two factors, the first direct internal represented in the results of companies and disclosures about its performance, and the other external indirectly link influence public budgets of oil-exporting countries, including increases fears that record deficits in public budgets, and deepen concerns about reduced public spending on development projects, on which they depend companies, especially real estate and banking. level and pointed out that the financial results of the companies of the banking sector in the capital markets the state but are not limited to, were distributed among the three categories, the first exceeded the financial results achieved all previous expectations, and the second came results within expectations, and the latter revealed a negative financial results were below the desired hopes, which impact quickly on the trading activity in the markets. results Khatib explained that the overall results of the listed companies in the same very limited effect on the movement of indicators of local stock markets, saying it does not merely temporary and seasonal and relative impact does not last long, pointing out that it was total, somewhat under good levels. he added that the general trend of stock indices markets during the current stage is a downward trend, noting that the positive results at the present time would alleviate the decline, while the the results achieved were to pay general indicators to achieve further gains as if the general trend upward trend. challenges Walid Khatib saw that challenges the geopolitical unrest in the region and the region countries, deepen instability and increases the reluctance of investors appetite for market trading. He said that local indicators of markets affected by the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the size of the US debt.