[size=32]China and the future of the global economic system
- 3 Days Past
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The unfair relationship by America and Europe towards developing countries, over decades, raises the ceiling of ambition among not few people from these countries, that after the Corona pandemic, the world witnesses a tangible change in the map of the global economic system, so that America or Europe is not In control of the wealth of the rest of the world.
Analyzes usually suggest that there is a prospect for China in the prospective world economic order, at the expense of America and the West. But what is strange is that the owners of this wish from developing countries in general and the Arab countries in particular, do not talk about their place and their role in this system, and what will they offer? Will their position in this prospective system be exploited by China, as America and the West have done before, or will they seek to have a role in preserving their resources, economic capabilities, and political conditions, and that they be an added value to the global economy, and not dependent on it, as they have been since Over a century.
Some people talk about China, its economic ability, its management of the Corona crisis, and its standing against America for years on issues of free trade, and other global economic issues.
We must take into account that, after every major global crisis, the world is experiencing significant changes, and we can monitor what China gained after the global financial crisis in 2008, some of the advantages that have been established from its global economic position, such as considering its currency in the reserve basket in a fund International monetary, and considered within the currencies considered in the basket of foreign exchange reserves for the rest of the world.
Moreover, entering China into an experience that is considered a symptom of the World Bank is a big step in light of strategies to change the balance of power, which is the experience of the Asian Infrastructure Bank, which was established by China with a capital of 100 billion dollars, with the participation of many countries in its establishment, and several European countries accepted its membership. .
Capitalist globalization
It is known so far, that China is a communist country in terms of its political system, and does not recognize political pluralism or the exchange of power through elections, but since the end of the seventies fought a new experiment on the economic side, it sought to implement fully the capitalist economy, and expanded all its energy to obtain an organized membership world Trade.
The figures in the World Bank database indicate the tremendous development witnessed by China in light of capitalist economic integration in light of globalization, in 1980 its GDP was $ 191 billion, while in 2018 this output reached $ 13.6 trillion, becoming the second country at the level of The world, according to this indicator, is after America.
The second indicator in which China was raised in the shadow of capitalism is its share of foreign direct investment, as its share in 1980 was only about $ 57 million, and it jumped in 2018 to $ 203 billion. As for the cumulative balance of these investments in China and its map, there is another hadith.
The third indicator that we address about the main benefit of China from capitalist globalization is its share of commodity exports, which was $ 18 billion in 1980, increased to $ 2.4 trillion in 2018.
Hence, China has built its economic wealth and political position over the past four decades in the light of the capitalist economy, and for this reason we have found it vigorously defending freedom of trade over the past three years because the issue is related to its interests, not an ideological bias of capitalism, and the mouthpiece of China’s strategy was, "Wherever there is an interest, there is no consideration for ideology," she says.
The new map
The new map is still not formed, but there is a certainty among large segments, that change is coming, and China may have a great place in it, but the question is: Will China abandon capitalism? Of course not, as we mentioned, it was the interest that pushed a communist country to plunge into the sea of capitalism, so that its GDP would double, its share of merchandise exports would increase, and it would be a bastion for attracting foreign direct investment.
The administration does not require that China abandon capitalism. Rather, the economic and social changes worldwide after Corona will be one of the problems facing China. Many countries will review the rules of work in globalization systems in trade, industry and investment.
Thus, the challenge for China will be its position in the global export arena and its ability to attract foreign direct investment, as was the case before Coruna.
China, for three years, has been advocating within the G20 economic and other international groupings for freedom of trade and the removal of customs barriers imposed by America, but after Corona, China will face similar behaviors to US behavior by many countries, in order to find jobs For their children, and every country will work to make investments for its own children within it, as long as it can.
After Corona, the role of China may change from exporting goods to exporting technology, to overcome the obstacles of commodity trade and the challenges it poses, but it will require new competition, in front of China from two sides: First, strive seriously to absorb the surplus of its workforce, which is absorbed by the export industries . The second is the superiority of America and Europe in producing and exporting technology. This will take some time for China to move ahead in this field over America and Europe.
The expected change in the world economic system, after Corona, may not happen in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the change will have emerged, and the economic powers are seeking to start a new phase of conflict, to prove influence, or to share interests.
Some think that the upcoming change will be an easy task for China, or for other economic powers that want to be the maker of the expected global economic system. Addressing the negative effects of Corona at the economic and social level will take time, in addition to that it will impose duties on those wishing to top the front of the system Global economist.
Aid issues, and the call to drop the interest of debt from the developing and least developed countries, will be test balloons for adults who want to control and manage the economic maps of the world. And China may not be better off its position on these issues than America and Europe have done before.
In conclusion: China will not assume an advanced position on the map of global economic powers, or its overcoming of America as the largest economic power in the world is easy. Rather, there will be many challenges, inside and outside China, that may delay China some time to reach its goals in this regard.
It can also be emphasized that China will not overthrow capitalism as an economic system during the coming period. In light of this system, it built its global economic power. Rather, one of the problems for China will be to maintain capital rules in trade and investment. On the other hand, Beijing does not have an economic ideology that it can present to the world as an alternative to capitalism, while stressing that I am not a capitalist.
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