[size=30]Iraq reserves a "top seat" in the list of "failed states": the 5 Arab countries and the 13th globally in "failure"!
2020-09-03
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Yes Iraq: Follow up
According to the annual report of the magazine "Foreign Policy", Iraq reserved "an advanced seat" in the list of failed states, as it ranked 5th among Arabs and 13th internationally, while the United Nations ranked for human development 120 out of 189 countries.
Foreign Policy magazine publishes an annual report on (failed states), based on economic, social, political and security indicators. The fragile or "failed states" index defines them as states that face difficulties in completing governance functions, and suffer from internal and external crises on the political, economic and social levels, Not to mention the prevalence of political and financial corruption in its systems, as it shares in its various internal peculiarities the characteristic of widespread poverty, unemployment and insecurity, that is, it is classified according to the degree of its failure.
According to the results of this indicator for the year 2019, Iraq ranked fifth in the Arab world and thirteenth in the world in the list of failed countries.
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Professor Anthony Cordesman classified Iraq as a category C of the failed states, attributing this to (Iraq's failure to recover in its war against ISIS, the government is still weak and unstable and the capabilities of the security forces are inconclusive.
He added, “There are still ethnic and sectarian divisions, but there are more divisions within the Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish regions and in political structures.
He continued: “Iraq is facing tremendous corruption at all levels, Iranian pressure, Turkish intervention in the north, instability in the Syrian border area near Turkey, independent militias and the remnants of ISIS, which still pose a threat and the weakness of recovery and reconstruction efforts in the areas severely affected by ISIS war and there is a poor distribution of oil revenues, investments and government services), adding that “Iran often exploits its ties with Iraq and exacerbates security problems, as is the case with Turkish military interventions against Kurdish groups located in Syria, and the unresolved situation regarding governance and security In western Iraq ”.
He explained that "the distorted and greatly inflated state sector includes more than necessary employees and weak government industries crowded with employees, while oil exports provide approximately 85% of state revenues and 80% of foreign currency earnings," noting that "Iraq has a large, ineffective government sector." And many state-owned companies, which consume a large part of the revenues without being productive, while high spending on the army and security is marred by great waste at a time when Iraq is making slow progress in enacting laws and developing the institutions required to implement economic policy.
He continued: "There is still a need for political reforms in order to reassure investors about concerns about the ambiguous business climate, as the government is keen to attract more foreign direct investment, but it faces many obstacles, including a weak political system and fears related to social security stability," noting To that "rampant corruption, dilapidated infrastructure, inadequate basic services, shortage of skilled workers and outdated commercial laws all of these things stifle investment and continue to restrict the growth of non-oil private sectors."
Invest in Kurdistan
The report stated that "according to the Iraqi constitution, some competencies related to the general investment climate must enter the federal government and the regions as a partner, or be transferred completely to local governments."
He pointed out that "investment in the Kurdistan region is done within the framework of the Kurdistan Region Investment Law - Law No. 4 of 2006 - and the Kurdistan Investment Council, which is designed to provide incentives to help develop the economy in areas that fall under the control of the Kurdistan Regional Government."
The report went on, saying, “Iraqi leaders remain under great pressure to translate macroeconomic gains into improved living standards for the Iraqi masses, and unemployment remains widespread throughout the country despite the inflation of the public sector, pointing out that“ the large number of regulations have made initiating commercial activities difficult for each of Iraq. And foreign investors, as corruption and the absence of economic reforms such as - the restructuring of banks and the development of the private sector - have dampened the growth of the private sector.
The report emphasized that “Iraq is in a fragile situation as it faces a financial crisis as a result of the collapse in global oil prices coinciding with the ongoing political and social turmoil,” stressing that “this situation has worsened with the spread of the Corona virus, as the state's health system has limited capacity and a limited financial stock to manage and contain the epidemic crisis. “.
The report believes that the demonstrations in October 2019 revealed (the fragility of the socio-economic system).
He pointed out that “to appease the demonstrators, the government provided a stimulus package consisting of a significant expansion of government sector jobs, pensions and changes, but some considered this response to be ineffective as much as promoting job creation, stimulating private sector participation and enacting anti-corruption measures that require reforms in the long run, which is the matter. What we did not see in the package, ”adding that“ with the record numbers in oil production and agricultural crops, expansion of electric power production and financial easing, the year has ended with a GDP growth of 4.4% and inflation remained stagnant at a rate of 0.2% in 2019, which contributed In this, imports are significantly cheaper from neighboring countries, which urged the Iraqi government to increase tariffs and impose a ban on importing some foodstuffs in response to calls from local producers.
the bell of danger
The report sounded the alarm by saying that (the economic outlook for Iraq appears from now on to be difficult, as the collapse of global oil prices and other unwanted world conditions, including the disturbances caused by the spread of the Corona virus, is expected from all of this to affect Iraq severely, leading to a contraction. It will reach 5% in its economy in the year 2020 (warning that) in the absence of important reforms to strengthen the private sector and its participation, it will be difficult to stimulate the economy. Programs that only provide human capital, but will reduce the country's ability to respond to post-coronavirus recovery needs.)
Regarding global rankings, the report states that (Iraq's ranking in the United Nations Human Development Report for the year 2019 is low, which is 120 out of 189, and its ranking in the World Bank's report on the percentage of governance in 2018 is very low 7.2 and Iraq has a high rate of corruption according to regional standards, as it comes in the 162nd rank. Out of 198 countries, the World Bank ranks Iraq in the ranking of businesses, ranked 172 out of 190 countries, to be one of the worst in the world. As for the population pressure in millions, it is 5.29 in 1950, 22.8 in 2000, 29.1 in 2010 and 38. 9 In the year 2020, it is estimated that it will reach 63 million in 2050, and he explained that the total pre-corona virus gross national income in the current billions of US dollars in 2019 amounts to 233.0 billion dollars.On the prediction for the next five years, he said (Iraq has been and still is since 1980 a country of crisis or conflict, and it is not clear if Iraq is able to form a central government and to unite despite the existence of ethnic and sectarian differences), affirming that (Iraq has great potentials but conflicts). Civilian relations, ties with Iran and its possible role in a major regional conflict that may lower Iraq’s classification to the E rank or Failure order.
Reports expect that the deficit in the 2020 budget will reach 30 billion dollars, after it reached 23 billion dollars in last year's budget
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