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- WED, 06-14-2023, PM 12:07
- KARRAR AL-ASADI
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The American "Middle East" Institute criticized the $153 billion budget passed in Iraq, saying it reflects a "short-term" political mentality, buying time and encouraging patience on the part of voters by adding hundreds of thousands of full-time, temporary and contracted employees to the public sector.
And after the report indicated that the standard budget had been facilitated through the deal that took place previously between the governments of Baghdad and Erbil, he said that the approval of the budget came after a delay that lasted three months since the Council of Ministers approved the draft budget on March 13th.
He pointed out that the budget is based on the price of $70 per barrel of oil, with a total daily export volume of 3.5 million barrels, including the 400,000 barrels that the Kurdistan region is supposed to export per day.
Baghdad and Erbil Agreement
The report indicated that the agreement on the draft budget law was facilitated through a previous deal between Baghdad and Erbil that granted the federal government the authority to monitor and review the revenues of the Kurdistan Regional Government from its oil and gas resources, a deal that also came after the ruling of the International Chamber of Commerce last March in favor of the government of Iraq in the case of Arbitration that lasted 9 years against Turkey in relation to KRG exports.
The report indicated that the decision of the International Tribunal fired a "bullet of mercy" on the independent production and export of oil and gas to the Kurdistan Regional Government.
The American report considered that there are important observations on the budget, the first of which is that it reflects the "short-term mentality" of the State Administration Alliance, which is like the de facto ruling party in Iraq, and to which Prime Minister Muhammad Shia'a Al-Sudani belongs.
Jobs and austerity
He explained that the goal of the budget is to buy time and encourage patience on the part of voters by adding hundreds of thousands of full-time, temporary and contracted employees to the public sector, which means thus increasing spending on public sector salaries, including wages and pensions, by $58 billion, which is What constitutes a contradiction with the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund and many Iraqi economists who were calling for the implementation of a more austere financial policy.
The report quoted an economist in Baghdad, who did not specify it, as saying that it is a "public employment budget" and not an "investment budget," adding that out of $153 billion, only $37.9 billion has been allocated for investments, including infrastructure projects.
Kurdistan Region oil
On another note, the report said that it is not yet clear how the passing of the draft budget, or the negotiations between the forces of the state administration coalition with the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan that led to approving the budget, will affect facilitating or obstructing Muhammad Shia’ al-Sudani’s pledge to pass the federal law. Oil and gas during his tenure, bearing in mind that his predecessors were also unable to accomplish this step.
The report added that the "bargaining dynamics" that were taking place between Erbil and Baghdad in the past regarding control of hydrocarbon resources in the region were in favor of Erbil, and were standing as an obstacle to passing such a law, adding that it was not in Erbil's interest at that time to surrender Baghdad has control over the production, export and financial management of its oil and gas resources.
Now, the report says that since the issuance of the International Court ruling last March, which was preceded by the ruling of the Federal Supreme Court in the year 2022 regarding the unconstitutionality of the oil and gas law for the regional government, the "power dynamics" have shifted in favor of Baghdad.
He added that the recent negotiations that led to the adoption of the budget law, were reflecting this change.
The report concluded by saying that in order to move forward, the challenges facing Al-Sudani in order to pass the federal oil and gas law are not only related to the Kurdistan Regional Government, but also to other oil-producing governorates that are also seeking to reach agreements of their own with Baghdad to share oil revenues. and gas.
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