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“The difficulty of putting the jinn back in the bottle.” Report: The Sudanese faces “multiple headaches” facing the balance between war and non-war
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2023-10-27 11:34
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Shafaq News/ An American institute described, on Friday, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani as a “skillful politician,” but he faces “multiple headaches,” especially after the war launched by Israel on Gaza upended the “delicate balance” that al-Sudani had followed for an entire year. Between Iraq's foreign relations and its efforts to maintain stability in Iraq.
The Arab Center in Washington said in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency, “The image coming from Gaza angered the Iraqis, like others in the region.”
He added, "Al-Sudani expressed, in a meeting of his government, Iraq's support for the Palestinian cause, and his full support for Palestinian rights and the establishment of a Palestinian state, while he strengthened his diplomatic communication and made phone calls with Jordanian King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al." Thani, and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, along with other leaders from the region, noting that Sudanese shows keenness to avoid escalation of the war and its expansion to other areas in the region.
Consensus to support the Palestinians
After the report mentioned the positions of Iraqi leaders who stood in solidarity with the Palestinians, including Iraqi President Abd al-Latif Rashid, the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr, and the leader of the Badr Organization Hadi al-Amiri, the report pointed out that “Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued a statement supporting Palestinian rights and denouncing the Israeli occupation, He condemns the destruction of Gaza, adding, “It is interesting that Al-Sistani, unlike his fatwa in 2014 in response to the ISIS attack, did not issue a call this time for general mobilization to confront Israel.”
While the report said that Sudanese support for the Palestinians was a response to the national mood, it considered that "his statements and diplomatic moves were not enough for the Shiite militias allied with Iran, which escalated their rhetoric beyond simply condemning Israel."
He pointed out that "the Shiite militias were more severe, as they issued condemnations and threats to the United States and Israel, and carried out repeated attacks on American bases in Iraq in Ain Al-Assad, Harir Air Base, and Baghdad Airport, while the leader of the Badr Organization, Hadi Al-Amiri, threatened the United States, pledging that the liberation of Palestine would be achieved." It will start from Iraq, while similar warning positions were issued by the Hezbollah Brigades, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Al-Nujaba, and other powerful Shiite militias.”
After the Al-Ahli Hospital bombing incident on October 17, the report said, “National feelings were kindled, militias moved, and Iraqis went out in large demonstrations in Tahrir Square,” adding that “officers from the Iranian Quds Force also met with militia leaders in Iraq to coordinate measures.” In the event of escalation, while the Sunni and Kurdish leaders were calmer in their reactions to the Gaza crisis, while the Kurdistan Regional Government, through its official spokesman, called for a unified Iraqi position, and stated that the Kurdish position cannot differ from the position of the Iraqi government.
Sudanese status
The report considered that "the unrest in Iraq creates multiple headaches for the Sudanese Prime Minister, especially since the provincial elections are scheduled for December 18, that is, less than two months from now."
The report pointed out that “the events in Gaza strengthened the Iraqi militias, which found a new legitimacy for their existence,” adding that “Al-Sudani did not attempt to disarm the militias during the past 12 months, but he was able to at least curb their activity and call for stability in order to secure a peaceful situation sufficient to push Foreign investment and economic growth.
But now, according to the report, “it will be much more difficult for the Sudanese to put the jinn back in the bottle,” and the report noted that “in light of the control of extremist Shiite groups and their presence in a strong position, it is likely that instability will return to Iraq, hindering investment and exposing "The Sudanese economic plans are at risk."
However, the report considered that "what is worse is that Sudanese is likely to now be at the mercy of the armed Shiite factions after his success in gaining their acceptance and support during the past 12 months, and they have now become more skeptical of his decisions and actions and their restrictions."
In addition, the report pointed out that "the political rise of armed Shiite groups will raise Sunni fears and threaten Kurdish interests, which will exacerbate the obstruction of Sudanese efforts to build good relations throughout the country that are supposed to lead to a stable policy."
The report saw that “this renewed strength of extremist factions in Iraq will lead to increased Iranian interference in the country’s internal affairs and its foreign policy options,” adding that “Iran’s regional calculations may determine the scale and method of fighting on the part of its Iraqi allies, which will enhance pressure on The Prime Minister, which means that his policy, which aims to adhere to a balanced foreign policy, will become at risk of collapse.”
After the report mentioned Al-Sudani’s statement to the American newspaper “The Wall Street Journal” in January 2023, that Iraq can have good relations with both the United States and Iran, and that foreign forces are still needed, expressing his support for the strategic framework agreement with The United States, the report said, “If Iran and its Iraqi supporters exercise more influence, it will be difficult to maintain this balance, and there will be a risk for the Sudanese to risk the goodwill he has built with the West.”
The report concluded by saying that Al-Sudani is a “skillful politician” and is facing dangerous times, as how things develop in the coming weeks depend on Iran’s intentions, over which he has no control. At the Cairo Peace Summit on October 21, he delivered an emotional speech in support of for Palestinian rights, calling for a ceasefire and the establishment of a fund to assist Gaza.
The report considered that “Al-Sudani is on high alert, because he has a lot to lose, as his position depends, at least partially, on the support of Shiite militias friendly to Iran,” adding that it is possible that the speech he delivered in Cairo stemmed from his conviction, but it was It is used for internal consumption in Iraq.
Although the report pointed to the important response from former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who praised Al-Sudani’s statements and urged everyone to stand by Al-Sudani and avoid engaging in unilateral steps that would cause internal and external instability, the report clarified that “although this represents a step... In the right direction, but it does not mean that Al-Sudani and his policies are out of the danger zone, as the Iraqi Prime Minister actually faces a difficult choice: either he surrenders to the militias, allowing them to destroy what he achieved over the past year, or he can take a firm stance against its rising power, which... "Without restrictions, he may be risking his job and Iran's anger at him."
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
2023-10-27 11:34
Share
Font
Shafaq News/ An American institute described, on Friday, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani as a “skillful politician,” but he faces “multiple headaches,” especially after the war launched by Israel on Gaza upended the “delicate balance” that al-Sudani had followed for an entire year. Between Iraq's foreign relations and its efforts to maintain stability in Iraq.
The Arab Center in Washington said in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency, “The image coming from Gaza angered the Iraqis, like others in the region.”
He added, "Al-Sudani expressed, in a meeting of his government, Iraq's support for the Palestinian cause, and his full support for Palestinian rights and the establishment of a Palestinian state, while he strengthened his diplomatic communication and made phone calls with Jordanian King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al." Thani, and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, along with other leaders from the region, noting that Sudanese shows keenness to avoid escalation of the war and its expansion to other areas in the region.
Consensus to support the Palestinians
After the report mentioned the positions of Iraqi leaders who stood in solidarity with the Palestinians, including Iraqi President Abd al-Latif Rashid, the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr, and the leader of the Badr Organization Hadi al-Amiri, the report pointed out that “Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued a statement supporting Palestinian rights and denouncing the Israeli occupation, He condemns the destruction of Gaza, adding, “It is interesting that Al-Sistani, unlike his fatwa in 2014 in response to the ISIS attack, did not issue a call this time for general mobilization to confront Israel.”
While the report said that Sudanese support for the Palestinians was a response to the national mood, it considered that "his statements and diplomatic moves were not enough for the Shiite militias allied with Iran, which escalated their rhetoric beyond simply condemning Israel."
He pointed out that "the Shiite militias were more severe, as they issued condemnations and threats to the United States and Israel, and carried out repeated attacks on American bases in Iraq in Ain Al-Assad, Harir Air Base, and Baghdad Airport, while the leader of the Badr Organization, Hadi Al-Amiri, threatened the United States, pledging that the liberation of Palestine would be achieved." It will start from Iraq, while similar warning positions were issued by the Hezbollah Brigades, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Al-Nujaba, and other powerful Shiite militias.”
After the Al-Ahli Hospital bombing incident on October 17, the report said, “National feelings were kindled, militias moved, and Iraqis went out in large demonstrations in Tahrir Square,” adding that “officers from the Iranian Quds Force also met with militia leaders in Iraq to coordinate measures.” In the event of escalation, while the Sunni and Kurdish leaders were calmer in their reactions to the Gaza crisis, while the Kurdistan Regional Government, through its official spokesman, called for a unified Iraqi position, and stated that the Kurdish position cannot differ from the position of the Iraqi government.
Sudanese status
The report considered that "the unrest in Iraq creates multiple headaches for the Sudanese Prime Minister, especially since the provincial elections are scheduled for December 18, that is, less than two months from now."
The report pointed out that “the events in Gaza strengthened the Iraqi militias, which found a new legitimacy for their existence,” adding that “Al-Sudani did not attempt to disarm the militias during the past 12 months, but he was able to at least curb their activity and call for stability in order to secure a peaceful situation sufficient to push Foreign investment and economic growth.
But now, according to the report, “it will be much more difficult for the Sudanese to put the jinn back in the bottle,” and the report noted that “in light of the control of extremist Shiite groups and their presence in a strong position, it is likely that instability will return to Iraq, hindering investment and exposing "The Sudanese economic plans are at risk."
However, the report considered that "what is worse is that Sudanese is likely to now be at the mercy of the armed Shiite factions after his success in gaining their acceptance and support during the past 12 months, and they have now become more skeptical of his decisions and actions and their restrictions."
In addition, the report pointed out that "the political rise of armed Shiite groups will raise Sunni fears and threaten Kurdish interests, which will exacerbate the obstruction of Sudanese efforts to build good relations throughout the country that are supposed to lead to a stable policy."
The report saw that “this renewed strength of extremist factions in Iraq will lead to increased Iranian interference in the country’s internal affairs and its foreign policy options,” adding that “Iran’s regional calculations may determine the scale and method of fighting on the part of its Iraqi allies, which will enhance pressure on The Prime Minister, which means that his policy, which aims to adhere to a balanced foreign policy, will become at risk of collapse.”
After the report mentioned Al-Sudani’s statement to the American newspaper “The Wall Street Journal” in January 2023, that Iraq can have good relations with both the United States and Iran, and that foreign forces are still needed, expressing his support for the strategic framework agreement with The United States, the report said, “If Iran and its Iraqi supporters exercise more influence, it will be difficult to maintain this balance, and there will be a risk for the Sudanese to risk the goodwill he has built with the West.”
The report concluded by saying that Al-Sudani is a “skillful politician” and is facing dangerous times, as how things develop in the coming weeks depend on Iran’s intentions, over which he has no control. At the Cairo Peace Summit on October 21, he delivered an emotional speech in support of for Palestinian rights, calling for a ceasefire and the establishment of a fund to assist Gaza.
The report considered that “Al-Sudani is on high alert, because he has a lot to lose, as his position depends, at least partially, on the support of Shiite militias friendly to Iran,” adding that it is possible that the speech he delivered in Cairo stemmed from his conviction, but it was It is used for internal consumption in Iraq.
Although the report pointed to the important response from former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who praised Al-Sudani’s statements and urged everyone to stand by Al-Sudani and avoid engaging in unilateral steps that would cause internal and external instability, the report clarified that “although this represents a step... In the right direction, but it does not mean that Al-Sudani and his policies are out of the danger zone, as the Iraqi Prime Minister actually faces a difficult choice: either he surrenders to the militias, allowing them to destroy what he achieved over the past year, or he can take a firm stance against its rising power, which... "Without restrictions, he may be risking his job and Iran's anger at him."
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