After Al-Sudani’s message... “Roadmap” for Iraq to avoid the repercussions of Gaza and southern Leba

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[size=52]After Al-Sudani’s message... “Roadmap” for Iraq to avoid the repercussions of Gaza and southern Lebanon[/size]

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2024-10-07
Observers of Iraqi affairs have proposed a “road map” to avoid the repercussions of the war in Gaza and southern Lebanon, which includes diplomatic action and the use of political influence to present approaches to resolving crises. The external action coincides with internal measures, most notably restricting weapons to the state.[/size]
[size=45]These steps come after the warning message sent by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to US President Joe Biden and the European Union countries, that “the region stands on the threshold of a dangerous slope that may drag it and the world into ongoing wars.”[/size]
[size=45]Steps to avoid the repercussions of war[/size]
[size=45]Professor of Public Policy at the University of Baghdad, Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, confirms that “Iraq’s exit from the conflicts that the Middle East is going through is by adhering to the principle of balance that Iraqi governments have followed, but the problem is that this principle was broken in Al-Sudani’s government, because it is formed by what is known as the armed factions (resistance factions) and they had announced at the beginning of its formation that this government is a (resistance government).”[/size]
[size=45]“Therefore, one of the most important steps is for Al-Sudani to officially announce his abandonment of this description and return to the principle of balance in Iraq’s foreign relations, and adopt an external discourse characterized by extreme neutrality, and not provoking Arab and international parties, as well as not showing Iraq as a bridge state or a mere transmitter of messages, as Iraq has the potential to be an initiator in many issues, but now it has lost the initiative,” Al-Shammari added.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari stresses “the importance of the government moving diplomatically towards Iran, the Arab countries, the United States and the European Union, and not remaining in offices waiting for ambassadors, but rather moving to those countries, to send a message that Iraq is offering an approach to resolving the existing crises, and to use the influence and friendships that Iraq possesses to avoid the repercussions of the war in Gaza and southern Lebanon.”[/size]
[size=45]Regarding the steps inside Iraq, Al-Shammari points out that “the government, although it is in the last quarter and has only a few months left, in order for Iraq to avoid war, it must begin disarming the armed factions, and restricting weapons to the state is not a slogan as much as it is an action in this regard.”[/size]
[size=45]He continued, "Although the government says that we are not a party to the war, Iraq is still geographically a target for American bases and even Israel, so it must take security action after the failure of dialogue with these factions."[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari confirms at the end of his talk that “Iraq has become part of the political and military conflict due to the nature of the strikes and attacks, and with the fall of Israeli casualties, Iraq has been placed in the circle of danger, and it is now within the bank of Israeli targets even if the matter has been postponed, because Iraq, according to Netanyahu’s classification, is within the axis of evil, and this does not include the factions and the government, but rather the political system, so Iraq will face major turning points due to the failure of this political equation.”[/size]
[size=45]Between the state's decision and the factions' decision[/size]
[size=45]Mukhallad Al-Darb, a security expert, agrees with what Ihsan Al-Shammari put forward, confirming that “after the resistance factions targeted a force affiliated with the Zionist entity in the Golan Heights, killing two and wounding 24 others, and announcing it officially, Iraq was included in the Zionist entity’s target bank.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Darb indicated during his interview with Shafaq News Agency, that “targeting areas outside the borders from within Iraq will have repercussions that may soon appear through targeting strategic targets inside Iraq or targeting leadership figures within the resistance factions.”[/size]
[size=45]He points out that “the problem in Iraq is that there is the state’s decision and the factions’ decision. The former is trying to distance itself from any conflict in the region and to neutralize Iraq from any targeting, but the operations of the resistance factions refute everything the government is doing and even its statements do not make the entity hesitate to target the factions that are currently in a confrontation with the axis of resistance.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Darb believes that “what Lebanon is witnessing is targeting the axis of resistance and not Lebanon the state, as the entity considers Lebanon a sovereign country and cannot be reached within the targeting operations, especially the sovereign sites and infrastructure, unlike targeting the resistance factions (Hezbollah), and this situation will apply to Iraq, by targeting the resistance factions and not Iraq the state.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani and the “difficult equation”[/size]
[size=45]For his part, the military and security expert, Major General Dr. Jamal al-Halbousi, says, “Al-Sudani’s recent statement places Iraq in a difficult equation with variable borders and fixed ones, and this political equation is the most difficult equation a country has ever gone through in terms of its regional, Arab, and international status.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Halbousi explained during his speech, “Iraq is known for its policy of non-alignment or non-drag, as its geographical location requires it to be a meeting point for all policies, and despite the government sending reassuring messages to the American and Western embassies that it is against any military escalation or expansion of the war, but on the ground there are leaders of some forces and militias that put them in an awkward position.”[/size]
[size=45]“Especially since Israel has the ability to reconnoiter, which creates fear on the Iraqi side, so Al-Sudani is trying hard to cross to safety through a moderate equation, and control all forces, including the armed factions,” says Al-Halbousi.[/size]
[size=45]“We are on the verge of a dangerous slide.”[/size]
[size=45]Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said in a letter addressed to US President Joe Biden and the European Union countries yesterday, Sunday, that the region is on the verge of a dangerous slide that could drag it and the world into ongoing wars.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani added in a statement, “With the passing of a year since the outbreak of the events of October 7, 2023, and the continuation of the Zionist aggression on Gaza, and its extension to brotherly Lebanon, and the threat to the entire region, Iraq recalls its early position, in which it warned of the consequences of the usurping entity’s efforts to expand the war and conflict and the results of letting it persist in committing crimes, amid the inability of the international community to play its role.”[/size]
[size=45]He continued, “Today, in light of the serious repercussions witnessed by the region, we address our message to all friends, especially US President Joe Biden, and the European Union countries, that we stand on the threshold of a dangerous slope that may drag the region and the world into ongoing wars. It will shake the global economy and expose development to a major setback, especially since our region represents the lungs through which the world breathes energy. Here, we must appreciate the important position of French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for stopping the supply of weapons to the usurping entity and working to end the war, because it is a position that stems from a true appreciation of the seriousness of the situation in the region.”[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sudani said, “Our government has worked hard to spare Iraq the effects of this escalation, and we have succeeded in doing so with you and in cooperation with all our friends in the world. The current stage requires doubling our efforts, and our top priority should be to stop targeting civilians and save the region from the evils of a war that will leave nothing behind, and in which there will be no winner except the logic of killing, sabotage and destruction. We also affirm that Iraq will continue its efforts and endeavors with friendly and sisterly countries, and joint work for calm, and to prevent the expansion of the conflict that affects the security of the region and the world.”[/size]
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