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[size=39]Al-Sadr is facing a complicated situation... and an Iraqi "consensus government" may be the possible option
Free / Subtitles - Washington
January 18 2022
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Free / Subtitles - Washington
January 18 2022
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Although the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Muhammad al-Halbousi, is the leader of an independent political bloc, whose members are Iraqi Sunnis, his victory in the presidency of Parliament for the second time in the parliamentary vote that was held on the ninth of last January, was considered a victory for the movement led by the Shiite cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr.
The US [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] said Halbousi's victory widened divisions among Iraqi Shiites in parliament, but also revealed "the ability of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to change political dynamics across Iraq."
According to the Iraqi constitution, parliament has 30 days from the first session to elect the country's new president, who will then ask the largest bloc in parliament to form a government.
The magazine added, "Today, the political representation of the Iraqi Shiite community is clearly divided into two main blocs. The first is the current led by the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of the most prominent political leaders in Iraq after 2003. The other Shiite bloc is the "Coordination Framework", a loose coalition that includes Sovereign Shiite parties include two former heads of the Iraqi government and other influential Shiite political figures.
The Sadrists won nearly 40 percent of the seats that the Shiites won in the past elections, but given the complex nature of his alliance, it remains unclear how many seats the coordination framework will occupy. However, it appears that they will control at least seventy seats, according to the newspaper.
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The Sadrist movement's representatives wore shrouds in the first session of Parliament
As the largest single party in parliament, the Sadrists voted in favor of Al-Halbousi's re-election, while the coordination framework boycotted the vote.
A similar split occurred among the Kurds, as the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani attended the vote, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan joined the framework in boycotting the vote.
The magazine says that al-Sadr is "serious about forming a majority government, which would challenge the prevailing situation in Iraq after 2003," adding, "But this coordinating framework rejects this idea, as does every major party beside al-Sadr's party."
Any government with a majority of the Sadrist movement would rely on the support of the KDP and the new alliance between al-Takadum (headed by Muhammad al-Halbousi) and al-Azm (headed by Khamis al-Khanjar), the main political winners between Iraq's Kurds and Sunnis.
But, on the other hand, Sadr can form a national majority government by dividing the coordination framework, obtaining the support of Shiite alliances such as the State of Law coalition (headed by Nuri al-Maliki) and the Fatah coalition (headed by Hadi al-Amiri).
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Banner with a picture of Muqtada al-Sadr
Local Iraqi sources indicate that the coordination framework may actually be on the path to accepting a Sadrist government, or at least that the large blocs within this framework are preparing to enter into serious negotiations with other parties.
The leader of the Al-Fateh Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, made visits during the past two days to the Kurdistan region of Iraq to meet with Massoud Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and he also met with al-Sadr and other leaders.
In response to the news that Al-Amiri's visits were interpreted as a prelude to joining the Sadrists, several speakers from the framework stressed that he "is still united."
While al-Sadr has no substantive objections to al-Amiri, the Al-Fateh bloc includes representatives from the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq militia, which al-Sadr does not seem to want to ally with, and the largest bloc within the framework is the “State of Law” bloc and its leader, Nuri al-Maliki, and al-Sadr have a long history. of differences.
The magazine says that al-Sadr will face three main challenges in any attempt to form an alliance with the Kurds and Sunnis, as although there was an understanding between al-Sadr, Barzani and al-Halbousi before the elections, the KDP and Sunni parties have so far rejected the idea of forming an alliance with only one Shiite bloc. .
In addition, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki tried to create new alliances in an effort to increase the framework seats. This created a balance of seats between the two Sunni blocs, making it difficult for al-Halbousi to claim the sole leadership or representation of the Sunnis in Iraq, the magazine says.
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Violent altercations took place inside the Iraqi parliament during its session, which was held on the ninth of this January
Also, if al-Sadr succeeds in obtaining the support of the KDP, the Sadrists - the Shiite component of the coalition - will not form a majority, making it the first non-Shiite-dominated government since 2003. This could make the government vulnerable to the struggle to gain the support of the Shiite community, she says National Interest.
The magazine adds, "These challenges make it likely that Al-Sadr will try to communicate with the Shiite forces within the framework of coordination to form a consensus government led by Al-Sadr.
She explains that the Sadrists have "thought of stability as an opposition, and the latter option may carry some appeal to al-Sadr, who has always presented himself as a dissident who holds the government accountable in Baghdad."
The magazine adds that "Al-Sadr's supporters, who usually do not question his choices, may see Al-Sadr as a true leader who sacrificed political power for the sake of the nation."
She added that "if al-Sadr decides to take this path, it will create the most important opposition force in the Iraqi political system after 2003."
"Control of these appointments allows politicians to direct national politics and advance their own political, ethnic, and economic interests," the magazine says.
While al-Sadr enjoys a disciplined base and can bear the costs of changing his positions without losing support, he knows that his victory was largely due to the Sadrists’ skillful handling of the new electoral laws, and while they gained more than 19 seats over the last session of Parliament, The total number of votes they received has decreased dramatically.
For many political activists within the Sadrist movement, especially those who worked hard during the election campaign, being in the opposition will prevent them from reaping the fruits they believe Sadr owes them.
Finally, the magazine says, "If al-Sadr is not included in the next government, the coordination framework and militias loyal to him will dominate Iraq, and this would allow the militias to continue operating outside the Iraqi security forces without facing pressure from the government."
The magazine concludes, "With all this in mind, it is likely that a consensus government will be formed, and although this is not new in the country, this government may carry the political, ideological and international priorities of Muqtada al-Sadr, even more."
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The US [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] said Halbousi's victory widened divisions among Iraqi Shiites in parliament, but also revealed "the ability of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to change political dynamics across Iraq."
According to the Iraqi constitution, parliament has 30 days from the first session to elect the country's new president, who will then ask the largest bloc in parliament to form a government.
complex endeavors
So far, there is no agreement between the main political forces in Iraq, but "the election of al-Halbousi can be seen as a victory for al-Sadr's bloc over the coordination framework bloc," according to the magazine, which said that the framework is "a bloc largely allied with Iran."The magazine added, "Today, the political representation of the Iraqi Shiite community is clearly divided into two main blocs. The first is the current led by the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of the most prominent political leaders in Iraq after 2003. The other Shiite bloc is the "Coordination Framework", a loose coalition that includes Sovereign Shiite parties include two former heads of the Iraqi government and other influential Shiite political figures.
The Sadrists won nearly 40 percent of the seats that the Shiites won in the past elections, but given the complex nature of his alliance, it remains unclear how many seats the coordination framework will occupy. However, it appears that they will control at least seventy seats, according to the newspaper.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
The Sadrist movement's representatives wore shrouds in the first session of Parliament
As the largest single party in parliament, the Sadrists voted in favor of Al-Halbousi's re-election, while the coordination framework boycotted the vote.
A similar split occurred among the Kurds, as the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani attended the vote, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan joined the framework in boycotting the vote.
The magazine says that al-Sadr is "serious about forming a majority government, which would challenge the prevailing situation in Iraq after 2003," adding, "But this coordinating framework rejects this idea, as does every major party beside al-Sadr's party."
national majority
The magazine adds, "While Sunnis and the Kurdistan Democratic Party have joined al-Sadr in voting to choose a president, electing a president and prime minister is much more complicated."Any government with a majority of the Sadrist movement would rely on the support of the KDP and the new alliance between al-Takadum (headed by Muhammad al-Halbousi) and al-Azm (headed by Khamis al-Khanjar), the main political winners between Iraq's Kurds and Sunnis.
But, on the other hand, Sadr can form a national majority government by dividing the coordination framework, obtaining the support of Shiite alliances such as the State of Law coalition (headed by Nuri al-Maliki) and the Fatah coalition (headed by Hadi al-Amiri).
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Banner with a picture of Muqtada al-Sadr
Local Iraqi sources indicate that the coordination framework may actually be on the path to accepting a Sadrist government, or at least that the large blocs within this framework are preparing to enter into serious negotiations with other parties.
The leader of the Al-Fateh Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, made visits during the past two days to the Kurdistan region of Iraq to meet with Massoud Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and he also met with al-Sadr and other leaders.
In response to the news that Al-Amiri's visits were interpreted as a prelude to joining the Sadrists, several speakers from the framework stressed that he "is still united."
While al-Sadr has no substantive objections to al-Amiri, the Al-Fateh bloc includes representatives from the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq militia, which al-Sadr does not seem to want to ally with, and the largest bloc within the framework is the “State of Law” bloc and its leader, Nuri al-Maliki, and al-Sadr have a long history. of differences.
The magazine says that al-Sadr will face three main challenges in any attempt to form an alliance with the Kurds and Sunnis, as although there was an understanding between al-Sadr, Barzani and al-Halbousi before the elections, the KDP and Sunni parties have so far rejected the idea of forming an alliance with only one Shiite bloc. .
In addition, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki tried to create new alliances in an effort to increase the framework seats. This created a balance of seats between the two Sunni blocs, making it difficult for al-Halbousi to claim the sole leadership or representation of the Sunnis in Iraq, the magazine says.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Violent altercations took place inside the Iraqi parliament during its session, which was held on the ninth of this January
Also, if al-Sadr succeeds in obtaining the support of the KDP, the Sadrists - the Shiite component of the coalition - will not form a majority, making it the first non-Shiite-dominated government since 2003. This could make the government vulnerable to the struggle to gain the support of the Shiite community, she says National Interest.
The magazine adds, "These challenges make it likely that Al-Sadr will try to communicate with the Shiite forces within the framework of coordination to form a consensus government led by Al-Sadr.
She explains that the Sadrists have "thought of stability as an opposition, and the latter option may carry some appeal to al-Sadr, who has always presented himself as a dissident who holds the government accountable in Baghdad."
The magazine adds that "Al-Sadr's supporters, who usually do not question his choices, may see Al-Sadr as a true leader who sacrificed political power for the sake of the nation."
She added that "if al-Sadr decides to take this path, it will create the most important opposition force in the Iraqi political system after 2003."
The difficulties of the opposition
Practically speaking, a large opposition bloc could hold the government accountable and put it in a constant stalemate, as "the loss of the ability to grant appointments to thousands of senior and private positions in the Iraqi government may make al-Sadr hesitate to form an opposition coalition.""Control of these appointments allows politicians to direct national politics and advance their own political, ethnic, and economic interests," the magazine says.
While al-Sadr enjoys a disciplined base and can bear the costs of changing his positions without losing support, he knows that his victory was largely due to the Sadrists’ skillful handling of the new electoral laws, and while they gained more than 19 seats over the last session of Parliament, The total number of votes they received has decreased dramatically.
For many political activists within the Sadrist movement, especially those who worked hard during the election campaign, being in the opposition will prevent them from reaping the fruits they believe Sadr owes them.
Finally, the magazine says, "If al-Sadr is not included in the next government, the coordination framework and militias loyal to him will dominate Iraq, and this would allow the militias to continue operating outside the Iraqi security forces without facing pressure from the government."
The magazine concludes, "With all this in mind, it is likely that a consensus government will be formed, and although this is not new in the country, this government may carry the political, ideological and international priorities of Muqtada al-Sadr, even more."
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