[size=30]Iraqi oil awaits a Chinese benefit that compensates for the "Indian-American abandonment"!
2022-04-12
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Yes Iraq: Baghdad
Economic indicators suggest the possibility of Iraq benefiting from its immediate oil sales to China after Saudi Arabia raised the prices of its raw materials to the large Asian consumer, which may reduce fears over the fate of Iraqi oil exports after India’s “discontent” with the rise in Iraqi crude prices, in addition to Russian oil crowding out Iraqi oil. And he offered it to Iraq's customers, "India and China", at great price discounts.
China is stepping up to recover its imports of crude oil, but it is still in danger due to the outbreak of the Corona virus, as China's oil imports are still less than the month of January.
China, the world's largest importer of crude, imported 10.88 million bpd in March, up from a four-month low of 9.51 million bpd in February, but still well below 11.54 million bpd in January.
It appears that the jump in imports last month came due to increased demand from refineries as pollution restrictions were lifted after the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February, and with increased demand for fuel after the Lunar New Year holiday.
However, China lowered export quotas in its first allocation of 2022, cutting them by 56% to 13 million tons, as part of efforts to reduce pollution and ensure domestic supplies.
Saudi Arabia’s decision to raise the official selling price for shipments loaded in May to Asia to a record premium compared to the Oman/Dubai regional index is likely to act as an additional obstacle to China’s imports, causing some Chinese refineries to order smaller quantities in May from Saudi Arabia, which will encourage The record official Saudi sales for the month of May were refiners in Asia to take as little as possible from Saudi oil and seek to buy alternatives in the spot market.
Chinese refiners may seek more Middle Eastern crude from spot sellers such as Iraq and Oman, but they can also buy from the United States and West Africa because the spreads make these grades more competitive.
Concerns over the fate of Iraqi oil
And worrying indicators are increasing about the control and position of Iraqi oil in the global market, while there are indications that companies from the Asian market, especially in India and China, may resort to buying Russian oil, which began to be offered at a lower price than the world price, and to move away from buying Iraqi oil, the imports of the United States of America are still Of Iraqi oil is also declining for the second week in a row.
Since last March, Iraq's oil exports to America have begun to gradually decline, as Iraq exported crude oil to America during the first week of March at a rate of 188,000 barrels per day, while an average of 161 thousand barrels per day was issued in the second week, and an average of 489,000 barrels per day was exported per week. The third, "while the fourth week's exports amounted to 82 thousand barrels per day."
During the first week of April, Iraq's oil exports to America amounted to 71 thousand barrels per day, and according to what was imported during March, the rate of US imports of Iraqi oil amounted to approximately 230 thousand barrels per day, while in the first week of April it amounted to 71 thousand barrels per day, meaning Finally, Iraq's oil exports to America during the first week of April decreased by 62% compared to the first week of March.
This drop is considered surprising, since after the United States of America banned Russian oil, expectations were that America would compensate for its need for oil by importing “Middle Eastern” oil, so Iraq’s exports would rise with the rest of the oil-exporting countries, but what happened is the opposite.
These indicators come to increase “concern” about the status of Iraqi oil in the global market, after other “Asian” indicators indicate that some Indian companies have given up buying Iraqi oil, preferring Russian oil because it is cheaper, with the discounts that Moscow began offering to Asian customers to compensate for the lack of its oil exports due to Western sanctions and many Western companies abandon the purchase of Russian oil.
Indeed, India has resorted to Russian barrels available at a significant discount from the benchmark Brent index, citing “national interests.” Indian refineries bought at least 16 million barrels of cheaper Russian oil for loading in May on a delivery basis, similar to purchases. for the whole of 2021.
The 16 million barrels represent more than 41% of the quantities that India imports from Iraqi oil. Thus, Iraq's oil exports, which represent approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, to India, the largest consumer of Iraqi oil, are threatened with decline and India will abandon or reduce it in favor of buying cheaper Russian oil.
Iraqi oil exports to India represent 1.3 million barrels per day, nearly 40% of Iraqi oil exports amounting to 3.3 million barrels per day, and according to the price of 100 dollars per barrel, 4 billion dollars of Iraq's monthly revenues are under threat of decline and go to Russia instead of Iraq by buying India For cheap Russian oil, which offers great price discounts.
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