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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Will Iran repeat the nuclear mistake as it did with Iraq at the end of the eighties?

rocky
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Will Iran repeat the nuclear mistake as it did with Iraq at the end of the eighties? Empty Will Iran repeat the nuclear mistake as it did with Iraq at the end of the eighties?

Post by rocky Tue 16 Aug 2022, 6:56 am

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[size=52]Will Iran repeat the nuclear mistake as it did with Iraq at the end of the eighties?[/size]

[size=45][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/size]
[size=45]The American “Middle East Institute” compared Iran’s current situation in the impasse of nuclear negotiations and its proposition of two preconditions, one of which is impossible, with its situation in 1987 when it presented an opportunity to end the war with Iraq, but it also set two conditions, and lost a lot after that.[/size]
[size=45]The US report indicated that in the context of diplomatic efforts exerted to end the Iraq-Iran war, the UN Security Council voted on July 20, 1987, with the unanimous vote of the members on Resolution 598, which calls for an immediate cease-fire, and the withdrawal of all forces to the internationally recognized borders. and the exchange of prisoners of war.[/size]
[size=45]Resolution 598 also called for the formation of a body tasked with identifying the party responsible for starting the war, which seemed to be an attempt to please Iran, which for years accused Saddam Hussein's regime of starting the war.[/size]
[size=45]While Saddam's regime agreed to the UN Security Council resolution, Iran set two preconditions. The first calls for Saddam's removal from power, which has been its demand since the beginning of the war in 1980, and the second condition calls for the United Nations to immediately determine that Saddam is the aggressor. .[/size]
[size=45]According to the American report, the two Iranian demands had their own logic, as Saddam was the aggressor and he made the decision to invade Iran and started the war, and in subsequent years he attacked Iranian forces and civilians with chemical weapons, and that Iran considered that as long as Saddam remained in power, He will always be able to launch another attack against it, even if the cease-fire agreement is in place.[/size]
 
[size=45]Despite this, the report stated that Iran's first demand related to Saddam's removal from power was "impossible" to achieve, since at that time no foreign government or international body was willing or able to force him to step down.[/size]
[size=45]The report added that what further complicated matters was Iran's second precondition, which called on the United Nations to identify Saddam as the aggressor, before the two sides first reach a comprehensive cease-fire.[/size]
[size=45]He added, "Although this condition was not impossible, it was difficult to achieve because its implementation would have discouraged Saddam from accepting a ceasefire," which would have undermined the efforts made by the United Nations to launch the process of ending the war.[/size]
[size=45]In light of this, the report stated that Iran's position by imposing preconditions, to prolong it[/size]
[size=45]The duration of the war, and it turned out that this was a very costly mistake, as at the beginning of February 1988, Iraq attacked Tehran for the first time with Scud missiles of the “Hussein” model, which were modified by Iraqi engineers with the help of Soviet technical assistance, and in this context, Iraq launched During 52 days, starting in February, 118 missiles hit the Iranian capital, killing 422 civilians and wounding 1,579 others. A quarter of the capital's population fled from it in fear.[/size]
[size=45]In addition, Iran became more isolated and arms-related sanctions were tightened, while Iraq was receiving the best quality weapons from France and the Soviet Union, a flaw that caused major Iranian defeats on the battlefield between July 1987 and July 1988.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that during this period, tens of thousands of Iranian soldiers and civilians were killed and wounded, and millions of dollars in additional losses occurred in the Iranian economy. In April of 1988, Iran suffered a remarkable defeat when Iraq regained the Faw Peninsula, which was Iran Captured in February 1986.[/size]
[size=45]The report considered that these and other factors eventually led to forcing Ayatollah Khomeini in July 1988 to abandon Iran’s preconditions and agree to a cease-fire in accordance with a Security Council resolution, a situation that was so difficult that Khomeini described it as “worse than drank.” poison.”[/size]
 
[size=45]Therefore, the report confirms that if Khomeini had agreed to the original cease-fire in July 1987, he would have saved the lives of a large number of Iranians, and he would have also been able to negotiate with Saddam from a stronger position, as Iran was still controlling the strategic island of Faw. .[/size]
[size=45]The error is repeated with Khamenei[/size]
[size=45]Now, the report considers that the current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is repeating the mistake of his predecessor, Imam Khomeini, as he sets preconditions for Iran's return to the 2015 nuclear agreement, adding that again it is impossible to meet one of these conditions.[/size]
[size=45]He explained that this condition is that the Joe Biden administration secures guarantees that no US president will withdraw from the nuclear agreement in the future, adding that this Iranian demand has logical reasons, as the United States, during the era of President Donald Trump, was the one who unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement plan. In May 2018, although the International Atomic Energy Agency was confirming at the time that Tehran was fulfilling its obligations set out in the agreement.[/size]
[size=45]The report also indicated that Iran does not want, after Biden leaves office, for another American president to violate the agreement as Trump did, adding that “this precondition is impossible, because the United States is a democracy, and it is the president’s prerogative to decide whether he wants to keep Whether or not his predecessor agreed to a deal, and therefore no president can tie the hands of his successors with regard to signed agreements.”[/size]
[size=45]“Again, as happened in 1987, Iran is making the mistake of adding difficult preconditions to an impossible condition before it returns to the nuclear plan,” the report added, explaining that one of the preconditions is the removal of the Revolutionary Guards from the US State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organizations.[/size]
 
[size=45]The report pointed out that "the Biden administration pledged to lift the nuclear-related sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, but the inclusion of the Revolutionary Guards on the list of foreign terrorist organizations has nothing to do with Iran's nuclear program."[/size]
[size=45]The report concluded by saying that there will be “consequences for Iran’s current strategy to adhere to the preconditions, which will be the same as it was in 1987, so that Iran will become more isolated and its economy will face greater pressure, doubting the possibility of Iran’s dependence on the Russians and the Chinese in order to save its economy.”[/size]
[size=45]Pointing to the challenges of economic hardship facing Iranian citizens, the report said that they are unlikely to endure such conditions indefinitely, and that Imam Khamenei will find that over time, his grip will become weaker.[/size]
[size=45]Therefore, he concluded by saying that in order to avoid the mistake Iran made in 1987, and to drop the current preconditions, Imam Khamenei would be able to save the Iranian people from unnecessary pain, adding that “repeating this mistake will eventually force Khamenei to To follow in the footsteps of his predecessor and to make a decision so difficult that it is “worse than a dose of poison.”[/size]
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