Fears of falling oil prices... and expectations of an increase in demand next monthproposals from

An international oil report predicted that the month of April will witness a record demand peak, with the recovery of Chinese and Indian demand for crude, despite the uncertainty about the global economic prospects.

A report issued by the oil “Reg Zone” indicated that the global demand for oil last December grew by 1.3 million barrels per day, which is 102 percent more than pre-Covid levels, pointing out that the increase in consumption spread throughout Japan and Indonesia. And South Korea, and India expects massive energy use in the second quarter of this year.

The report noted the Indian government's estimates that the record peak demand will occur next April, and the third largest oil importer in the world expects total fuel consumption to rise by 4.7 percent during the next fiscal year, considering that energy markets must closely monitor India.

He pointed out that the demand for diesel decreased by 14 percent from the average of four weeks for this time of the year, explaining that there are many positive economic indicators that allowed all major US stock indices to achieve some small gains.

The report noted that the US dollar index rose again week after week, which makes it difficult for crude oil to record an increase.

The report promised that recording nine consecutive weeks of increases in inventories makes them higher than the average, which is surprising, noting that the reopening of China is an influencing factor in oil prices, but its effects are not fully clear on the market yet.

The report pointed to the approaching end of winter, as the demand for heating oil was less than usual this year, which led to an increase in oil stocks, noting the growing fears of an increase in the federal interest rate, which may stifle growth and reduce future demand for energy. Crude oil prices fell at the end of last week with the increase in bearish sentiment, as speculation of further cuts in Russian production and a recovery in Chinese demand led to a rise in oil prices, but inflation fears and the continued increase in oil stocks eventually led to lower prices.

In this context, the "Reg Zone" report stated that oil prices at the end of last week suffered from recession, as traders face downward trends, including the rise in US inventories and the recovery of demand, which did not live up to expectations.

The report pointed to the growth of US crude oil inventories by nearly 24 million barrels in the past two weeks, which actually increased the supply in the market, pointing to the confirmation of BOK Financial Securities, that diesel prices also reached their lowest levels since pre-war levels with High stocks, and finding ways to export large quantities of fuel.

The report pointed out that US demand for gasoline recorded the second lowest seasonal level since 2014, explaining that this trend mitigate some optimism that Chinese demand will rebound after the end of zero Covid policies, as US crude witnessed a 4.2 percent drop in prices.

The report noted that futures contracts have remained stuck in a range of ten dollars since the end of 2022, as optimism about the reopening of China conflicts with concerns about monetary tightening, pointing to the conviction of many traders also that inflation has begun to slow demand for fuel in the United States amid concern about the transmission of effects. slowing down to Asia.

The report stated that the decline in the use of refineries and the large gains in inventories of crude oil and distillate products played a role in keeping crude oil prices below $80 a barrel, noting that last week was the ninth consecutive week of gains in inventories. The report added that the decline in prices came despite strong positive economic signals, which should be an indication of future growth in energy demand, as well as an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day in crude oil exports.

The report highlighted US Energy Information Administration data, which indicates that commercial inventories increased last week by 7.6 million barrels to reach a total of 479 million barrels, an increase of 9 percent from the five-year average for this time of year, and US oil production reached 12.3 million barrels per day, compared to 11.6 million. last year at this time.

For its part, the Platts International Oil Information Agency stated that the volumes of US crude oil exports recorded a record year in 2022 as a result of a combination of increased demand from Europe and additional supply from increased US production and the flow of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve supported by export volumes.

The report indicated that the average total US crude exports during the past year amounted to 3.602 million barrels per day, up from the previous record recorded in 2020 of 3.166 million barrels per day, according to official US Census Bureau data.

The report stated that after the Russian-Ukrainian war, many European consumers began to move away from Russian raw materials, which gave impetus to the demand for barrels from the United States, noting that in the period from March to December of 2022, the average American crude exports to Europe reached 1.557 million barrels. per day, surpassing even those destined for Asia during the same period, which averaged 1.548 million barrels per day.

For its part, the "Oil Price" international oil report indicated that the rise in US crude stocks increased downward pressure on oil prices at the end of last week, amid speculation of an additional production cut from Russia and doubts about the strength of the return of Chinese demand.

The report stated that inflation fears and the continuous increase in stocks led to a decline in oil prices, as Brent crude closed the week around the level of $81 a barrel, adding that the relative weakness of West Texas Intermediate crude led to a recovery in China's purchases of US barrels. On the other hand, with regard to prices at the end of last week, oil prices rose at the settlement of trading on Friday, February 24, for the second session in a row, but ended the week with little change.

Upon settlement, Brent crude futures rose by 1.2 percent to $83.16 a barrel, and US crude futures rose 1.2 percent to $76.32 a barrel, and there was little change in the prices of the two benchmarks on a weekly basis.