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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Experts: Türkiye's elections delay the resumption of oil exports from the region to Ceyhan

    Rocky
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    • Post n°1

    Experts: Türkiye's elections delay the resumption of oil exports from the region to Ceyhan Empty Experts: Türkiye's elections delay the resumption of oil exports from the region to Ceyhan

    Post by Rocky Fri 26 May 2023, 4:59 am

    [size=45][size=41]Experts: Türkiye's elections delay the resumption of oil exports from the region to Ceyhan[/size]
     17 hours ago
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    Analysts and sources in the energy market saw that the run-off elections in Turkey exacerbated the delay in resuming the export of about 450,000 barrels per day of Iraqi oil, as Ankara is discussing its relationship with Baghdad.
    And the American “CNBC” network stated in a report; This oil flows through Turkey from the Iraqi state and the Kurdistan Regional Government, adding that Kirkuk crude specifically flows through the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline that connects the region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean, but these quantities have stopped since March 25 due to a legal dispute between the government Federal and between the regional government and Turkey.
    According to the American report; The decision expected to be issued depends on the outcome of the second presidential elections next Sunday, but this prolonged suspension may lead to a reduction in Iraqi crude oil production.
    The report mentioned the backgrounds of the dispute and the legal dispute that took place, as Baghdad considered the region’s sales of oil illegal, and the lawsuit that lasted 7 years, and the verdict was issued by a court affiliated with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris, which considered that Ankara had violated the 1973 agreement on crossing the pipeline between Baghdad and Ankara during the period 2014-2018, and ordered Turkey to pay nearly $ 1.5 billion in compensation to Iraq, while the second arbitration lawsuit, which covers the period from 2018 until now, is still ongoing.
    The report also mentioned the decision of the Federal Court in Baghdad last February that the oil and gas legislation of the regional government is unconstitutional and ruled to invalidate its contracts with foreign companies, a decision that led American companies to take a decision to withdraw from contracts in Kurdistan and deter some oil buyers from carrying out more operations. the purchase.
    The report mentioned the statements of the Iraqi Oil Minister, Hayan Abdul-Ghani, on May 23, that Baghdad had informed Turkey that they could now resume flows through Ceyhan, and that Iraq was now waiting for Ankara's response, adding that Turkish officials said that there were some evaluation issues that they had to take into consideration, noting. He indicated that this resulted from the earthquake, adding that an Iraqi delegation would be sent to Turkey to discuss the restart.
    The report explained; Kirkuk crude is exported from the potash terminal in Ceyhan in southern Turkey, and is separate from the Azerbaijani oil flows that are shipped from the nearby Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan port terminal. The report added that while loading operations resumed at Botas the day after the devastating earthquake on February 6, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan station suffered a longer outage.
    The report quoted several sources in the trade, shipping and oil production sectors, as saying that, at the request of Baghdad, Ankara was expected to resume exports of Kirkuk crude from Ceyhan on May 13, that is, a day before the presidential elections, but the results of the first electoral round are inconclusive. Resumption of oil hindered.
    According to the same sources, the Turkish authorities are loath to take responsibility for the restart, at a time when current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is struggling against his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with the aim of prolonging his rule, which lasted for nearly two decades.
    The report quoted the Kurdish analyst, Oak Ghafuri, as saying that the main issue in resuming oil through Ceyhan is the current elections, and that the other obstacle to resuming oil is the ongoing case in the International Court in Paris against Turkey by Baghdad over the period from 2018 to now.
    And the Kurdish analyst continued saying; Ankara is asking Baghdad to drop this issue, but Baghdad has not done so so far.
    He added that the ruling party, namely Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, wants to settle the issue of elections and then deal with the KRG's oil with Baghdad.
    The report quoted other analysts as saying that the Turkish priority now is to avoid further legal disputes by adhering to reaching a clear and decisive agreement on the legality of oil exports between Baghdad and Erbil, adding that the existing deals between the two parties are political agreements, not legislation.
    The report also quoted a researcher at the Arab Gulf Institute in Washington, Yerevan Saeed, as saying that there are still many technical aspects that must be settled between the regional government and Baghdad, adding that despite the existence of an initial deal, the details of how to export oil have not been clarified. and who controls the revenue.
    According to sources in the energy market, in addition to determining the marketing distribution, Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region may also have to reformulate the agreements under which foreign companies paid advance amounts to Erbil in exchange for quantities of oil, in addition to the payment contracts for foreign producers of Kurdish oil.
    Saeed said that Ankara may intend to expand the negotiations with Baghdad to also include water resources from the Euphrates River, and the Turkish military presence in the region and in Sinjar.
    According to Bilal Wahhab, a researcher at the American Washington Institute, controlling Kurdish oil export flows provides Turkey with leverage to demand that Baghdad drop the fine and the second arbitration case, as well as redefine the extent of Ankara's commercial relationship with Iraq.
    "By closing the pipeline, Turkey does not lose much, perhaps only transit fees," Wahhab explained.
    In addition, the report said that oil traders warn that Erdogan's loss in the presidential election battle may prolong the oil stalemate, as Kilicdaroglu is likely to request new negotiations with Iraq.
    Although the report referred to Erdogan's troubled relations with the Kurdish minority (between 15 and 20 percent of the Turkish population), it also added that Erdogan enjoys a great and continuous rapprochement with the Kurdistan Regional Government. Wahab was quoted as saying that Turkey could still prioritize securing benefits from a stalemate in oil exports.
    “I don’t think a victorious Erdogan would have any qualms about using the KRG as leverage to get a good deal from Baghdad,” Wahab said, explaining that this includes the appropriate conditions for doing business in Iraq, dropping the fine that Turkey has to pay, or dropping the fine. Some of Iraq's demands regarding water (from the Euphrates River) and about the Turkish military presence in Iraq.
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