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The budget... a temporary truce before the local elections
Iraq 2023/06/15
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Haider Al-Jaber
The tumultuous political confrontations ended under the dome of parliament after the approval of the federal budget, which faced several obstacles that almost ravaged the political scene and brought back the previous stalemate to mind, had it not been for the last-minute deals and dialogues that led to the parliament continuing to hold its sessions until the early hours of dawn for four difficult days for the Iraqis, which is Which suggests a fierce electoral battle in all regions.
Academics and observers see the approval of the budget as a temporary truce before the start of the next electoral battle at the end of this year, in which the blocs - except for the Sadrist movement, whose position remains ambiguous - are preparing to try to change the electoral weights.
The researcher and academic, Dr. Abdulaziz Al-Issawi, told Al-Sabah: “The political conflicts before and during the approval of the general budget sent prior indications that the electoral battle will be fierce, and that some political battles became clear in conjunction with the vote on the budget,” indicating that there are “conflicts Postponed due to the budget, the political forces needed some of them to complete the quorum and vote.
Al-Issawi expected that "the coming weeks will witness a form of electoral conflicts, with talk of the emergence of new political forces in a number of governorates with new names that harmonize local elections, which is a prelude to previously unknown alliances," noting that "local elections differ from legislative elections because of their law, and this is what influence the nature of alliances.
The researcher believes that "there will be a return to the narrow factional components, towards each candidate for his clan and province, and the electoral conflict will intensify, because St. Lego's law is a zero-sum game between the competing forces, and the major alliances will win it," as he put it.
While the academic and political analyst d. Haider Ali, to "Al-Sabah": "The state's general budget has always been a source of problems because of its impact on the coherence of political agreements and the financial dimension of the state, in addition to other gains sought by parties involved in forming the government," explaining that "the approval of the budget in parliament and voting Its provisions have a difficult task in front of the blocs, in light of the tendency towards preserving the largest possible number of consensuses in the context of which the budget is passed.
Ali added, "The current political atmosphere is nothing more than temporary in light of the absence of complete harmony and conflict over the distribution of resources and shares, especially the share of the Kurdistan region, which has been taking guarantees from all parties before completing the deal to form the current government," stressing that "it is a scene that was repeated this year." In the three-year budget, the emergence of disagreements over the agreement on the mechanism of exporting the region’s oil and the funds obtained from it, to emerge with it directions for the crystallization of new political positions whose paths and immediate results cannot be predicted, but rather raise many questions about the extent of the continuity of the relationship between the parties to the government and the path of trust between the center and the region as well as the nature of the consensus And future understandings, especially about resources and wealth and the mechanism for managing them.
He explained that "there are important insights related to the shape of the upcoming crisis that may be caused by the budget and ways to agree on it and dismantle it in light of trends towards the alliance and re-reading the relations between the political blocs according to the electoral programs that will be approved by the components of the political performance, especially the parties in the Kurdistan region."
He pointed out that "the vote on the budget put forward more than one opinion based on realistic data, perhaps the most prominent of which is the issue of changing the political weights of the blocs, as well as changing the map of the strategic performance of the political forces, in addition to changing the course of current and future alliances, and even at the level of the upcoming elections."
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