The government and the Commission agree on a date of December 18 for the local elections and attempt

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[size=52]The government and the Commission agree on a date of December 18 for the local elections and attempts to return al-Sadr[/size]

[size=45]Baghdad / Tamim Al-Hassan[/size]
[size=45]Once again, the divisions return over the date of the local elections, which are scheduled to be held about 6 months from now, and new indications have emerged of the possibility of the participation of the Sadrist movement.[/size]
[size=45]The preoccupation with passing the budget or the need for calm until its approval has temporarily disrupted the discussions about the elections that will now be launched on a large scale.[/size]
[size=45]Intense competition is expected between the political forces in the coming days, especially the Shiites, who have rare stable conditions at a time when the government is leading.[/size]
[size=45]It is most likely that the main alliances will split up in the elections to invest in this atmosphere and achieve a popular balance until the next parliamentary elections.[/size]
[size=45]According to political sources and the agreement between the government and the Electoral Commission, the polling date will be on Monday, December 18th.[/size]
[size=45]The commission submitted to the government more than 300 requests to complete the preparations for the elections, while the head of the commission, Omar Ahmed, said that the government "approved all requests."[/size]
[size=45]Parliament had set the date for the provincial council elections no later than December 20, provided that the determination of the polling day was left to the prime minister.[/size]
[size=45]However, the supposed date is being rejected by some parties to the coordination framework, according to what informed sources told Al-Mada.[/size]
[size=45]And those sources say that “the proposals to postpone the elections to April 2024 returned again after the truce in passing the budget.”[/size]
[size=45]The postponement proposals were leaked last April, before the Shiite forces agreed to temporarily remove this file until the end of the budget crisis.[/size]
[size=45]Political and technical reasons or “excuses”, according to what some political parties see, are behind calls to extend the election date until next spring.[/size]
[size=45]Politically, some parties within the coordination framework were afraid of rushing to set the date for the elections, as it might not guarantee a large participation of voters or persuade them to vote for the “framework” forces.[/size]
[size=45]The government led by the Shiite coalition will be at the supposed election date. It has only completed one year, more than half of which was without clear achievements due to the delay in the budget.[/size]
[size=45]The Shiite parties, in particular, do not forget that they had questioned the last legislative elections in 2021, and the commission’s statistics on the number of participants.[/size]
[size=45]The Commission said at the time that the participation rate exceeded 40%, but Shiite leaders such as Nuri al-Maliki (State of Law) said that at best the participation rate did not exceed 25%.[/size]
[size=45]A few days ago, the official commission figures for voters who do not have ballot papers, or who have not yet received those ballot papers, threaten to boycott about half of those who are entitled to vote.[/size]
[size=45]Another reason for trying to delay the local elections may be the desire of Shiite parties to persuade Muqtada al-Sadr, who retired last summer, to return again.[/size]
[size=45]According to informed sources, the Shiite forces do not want al-Sadr to remain outside the political process for fear of inciting the street against the "frame".[/size]
[size=45]These sources speak of news of the possibility of the leader of the Sadrist movement allying with small forces during the upcoming elections.[/size]
[size=45]Ihsan al-Shammari, researcher and head of the Center for Political Thinking, believes that the Sadrist movement is "ready and qualified for the elections, and it will sweep the provincial councils if it allies with emerging parties, taking advantage of the failure of the framework."[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari said in an interview with (Al-Mada) that "there are attempts by these small parties to convince Al-Sadr to make an alliance, just as Al-Sadr's frustrated audience may push the latter to participate, despite the movement's interest in the upcoming legislative elections."[/size]
[size=45]In any case, the researcher in the political affairs believes that those close to al-Sadr may participate in the elections, even if their participation is without support or an official announcement from the movement.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sadr's circles estimate that the movement's audience in Iraq may reach 10 million people, a number that may give the leader of the movement an enormous advantage in any upcoming elections.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, there are likely to be continued reluctance of voters to participate. "The current political forces did not give new reasons to convince the voter," says Ihsan al-Shammari.[/size]
[size=45]He expected the low participation rate to remain unchanged in the elections unless a new political project emerges that presents a different vision of the role of the provincial councils.[/size]
[size=45]And the researcher in political affairs points out that “it is in the interest of the coordination framework that most voters do not participate, because it depends on its limited partisan audience.”[/size]
[size=45]According to the electoral classifications, the Iraqis who did not participate in the elections and are called the “silent majority” represent about 80% of the total number of those entitled to vote.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari believes that “the participation of 60 or 70% of the silent majority will change the criteria for the parties’ superiority, against the coordination framework.”[/size]
[size=45]that precedes the storm[/size]
[size=45]The calm experienced by the political forces, especially after the approval of the budget, warns of imminent storms, especially if everyone reveals their cards and announces their alliances.[/size]
[size=45]The Sunni forces have been more clear so far, as a former deputy from Anbar told Al-Mada that: “3 main forces can be identified that may compete for Sunni cities in the local elections.”[/size]
[size=45]It is the group of Muhammad al-Halbousi, Speaker of Parliament (Taqaddum), Khamis al-Khanjar and Mashaan al-Jubouri in Salah al-Din, and the Azm team, which is close to the Anbar Unified Alliance.[/size]
[size=45]The deputy, who asked not to be named, believes that: “These forces are trying to form large alliances, such as the Sunni framework that al-Halbousi seeks, or a list like the Iraqiya that was led by Iyad Allawi, but this time with the version of Rafie al-Issawi (former deputy prime minister) who is close to the determination and alliance of Anbar.” .[/size]
[size=45]These currents, which are expected to be joined by less influential parties, such as Defense Minister Thabet al-Abbasi, who holds 3 seats in Parliament for Mosul, launched a campaign of slander before approving the budget.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Issawi, who recently returned after an absence of about 10 years after settling his files with the judiciary in a controversial manner, attacked Al-Halbousi indirectly, and defended the generation of hawks who ruled Sunni cities when ISIS appeared in 2014.[/size]
[size=45]On the other hand, news platforms close to the Speaker of Parliament considered Al-Issawi's reappearance as a bad sign of the possibility of violence and terrorist groups returning once again to western cities.[/size]
[size=45]On the other side, the Shiite forces are still moving silently regarding alliances. Ihsan al-Shammari says: “The forces of the coordination framework may not enter into large alliances in the local elections, and they will use the same sectarian slogans to promote the Baath file and fight corruption.”[/size]
[size=45]Shiite parties see that the current elections are an opportunity to arrange their papers in preparation for the most important legislative elections for the parties.[/size]
[size=45]This period of relative political calm may provide an opportunity to persuade the public to vote, taking advantage of early election propaganda, such as what happened with the issue of the budget and job advertisements, contrary to the government's vision.[/size]
[size=45]The addition of jobs to the budget apparently embarrassed Muhammad al-Sudani, the prime minister, whose popularity might be shaken if he appealed to those paragraphs.[/size]
[size=45]Al-Shammari believes that: “Al-Sudani will be with Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq in the elections because he relies heavily on them or will present shadow representatives.[/size]
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