Baghdad and Erbil conflicts disrupt oil and gas investment: Who will prevail?
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Baghdad today - Baghdad
The ongoing conflicts between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government and their lack of agreement on a unified formula for the oil and gas law resulted in the delay in properly investing this wealth and distributing it in a fair distribution for more than a decade and a half, coinciding with the failure of all regional and international mediations to solve this problem, so that the project remains Hoping that it will see the light in the current parliamentary session, after there are reports of its approval during the coming period.
government insistence
On August 2, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani held a meeting with the leaders of the political blocs, the ministers of foreign affairs, oil and industry, and officials from the Kurdistan region, as well as Iraqi oil experts, to confirm that the law “is part of the commitment to the ministerial curriculum, which was voted on by the House of Representatives, to ensure equitable distribution of oil wealth.
He said: The draft law "represents a factor of strength and unity for Iraq, and it has been stuck for years, at a time when the country today is in dire need to legislate it and benefit from this natural wealth." He stressed that "the absence of law has prevented Iraqi provinces from investing their natural resources until today, which has hindered the country's development path."
Approval rebounds
For his part, a prominent member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Mahmoud Khoshnaw, ruled out in an interview with "Baghdad Today" the approval of the oil and gas law in the current electoral cycle for the Iraqi parliament. Attributing the reason to "the lack of agreement on the provisions of the law so far between Baghdad and Erbil."
He believes that "the legislation of this law will cast a shadow over the legislation of the next financial budgets in Iraq without problems or disagreements between Baghdad and Erbil."
The technical debate on the law was supposed to end last June, but it is clear that it will be delayed for a longer period, and some deputies say that it may extend to the end of this year.
Democratic expectations
In turn, the spokeswoman for the Kurdistan Democratic Party bloc in the House of Representatives, Vian Dakhil, revealed, in a press statement, "an upcoming visit by a delegation from the Kurdistan Regional Government to Baghdad to contribute to the maturation of the oil and gas law with the aim of enacting it."
Dakhil indicated that "the differences are currently technical, and will be resolved between the joint committees and delegations, and the oil and gas law will be approved in the Council of Ministers after the completion of resolving the points of contention between the center and the region."
According to the leaks, the law includes more than 40 articles, about half of which have settled the debate, and what remains will be difficult for the political blocs due to the political and technical intersection.
What do the Kurds want?
The economist, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, indicated in his post, on Saturday (August 26, 2023), that "the main point of intersection between Kurdistan and Baghdad in the third version of the draft oil and gas law for the year 2023 revolves around the region's endeavor to install an article in the new law that states: The federal government shall manage the oil and gas extracted from the current fields (before the constitution was enacted in 2005) with the regional government or the producing governorates that are not organized in a region, and that the regional government or the producing governorates that are not organized in a region is the competent authority to manage oil and gas in the current and future fields after legislation the Constitution".
He added, "This means that all of Kurdistan's fields will be managed exclusively by the regional government and Baghdad has nothing to do with it!"
The new law is likely to give the state company, SOMO, full control over oil imports. Initially, the political blocs did not express any objection to this, but they differed on the details.
The dispute arose between the oil-producing cities and those that do not include fields. As the first negotiated to obtain exceptions at the expense of the center, but the other cities insisted that Baghdad be the only party in managing the oil file.
Effects of disabling the law
Economic researcher Ali Awwad believes that "the oil and gas law can contribute to raising the oil production capacity and national gas investment, and practically regulates the production and export capacity, which is estimated at more than 4.6 million barrels per day."
Awwad said in a statement to "Al-Araby Al-Jadeed" newspaper that "Iraq has 530 geological structures that include large oil reserves, in addition to the presence of 115 sites that have been drilled so far, and its reserves are estimated at 311 billion barrels."
He added, "The huge quantities of oil reserves in Iraq contribute greatly to improving production processes because the country contains more than 80 fields, while production is limited to a part of them, which means that the application of the oil and gas law will achieve large oil revenues for Iraq by opening areas of oil production and extraction, taking into account the decisions of OPEC, and achieving international agreements with consuming countries.
Source: Baghdad Today + Agencies
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