Studies Center: A tripartite agreement is necessary to resolve the oil export pipeline crisis

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[size=52]Studies Center: A tripartite agreement is necessary to resolve the oil export pipeline crisis[/size]

[size=45]Translated by / Hamed Ahmed[/size]
[size=45]A report by the Arab Gulf Institute for Studies in Washington dealt with the crisis of closing the Iraqi oil export pipeline passing through the Kurdistan territories via Turkey and the efforts made to resume oil exports, which caused financial losses to all parties, indicating that re-pumping oil is related to achieving a consensus between Baghdad and Ankara, but reaching a permanent solution cannot be achieved. Consolidate it only with the involvement of the third party, Erbil.[/size]
[size=45]The report indicates that the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, had visited Baghdad and Erbil on August 22 to 24 and held discussions with officials in the central government and the Kurdistan region, which focused on major issues that included the issue of resuming oil exports from the region via Turkey and the issue of arbitration compensation for Turkey. Which called on Turkey to close the line because of it, in addition to the problem of the presence of Turkish opposition militants, the Beh Kaka, and the ongoing dispute between Baghdad and Ankara regarding the quantities of water releases from Turkey to Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]The report confirms that in order to effectively address these existing problems and find solutions, the involvement of the Kurdistan Regional Government is a must. By being a major partner, the regional government can play a positive role in managing and resolving these issues.[/size]
[size=45]It is noteworthy that both Iraq and Turkey share important economic interests. The abundant energy resources in Iraq are important to neighboring Turkey, according to the close geographical location. Because of the relative security stability in the region, Ankara invested in the field of energy in Kurdistan, including signing an agreement with the region in 2012 for a period of 50 years. This encouraged many Turkish companies to invest in the region and facilitate oil exports through Turkey.[/size]
[size=45]But in March 2023, Iraq won an international arbitration case in Paris filed against Turkey by compensating it in the amount of 1.5 billion for oil exports without its consent from 2014 to 2018, and Iraq is seeking another similar compensation covering the period from 2018 to 2022.[/size]
[size=45]As a result, on March 23, Ankara closed oil shipments coming from the region, a move that caused difficult financial losses for Erbil. Since that time, Baghdad and Ankara have held 19 meetings to reach a mechanism through which oil exports can be resumed. Turkey initially took a difficult stance by demanding the cancellation of the fine amounting to $1.5 billion and abandoning the second legal case in the same case. It also demanded that it increase the fees for exporting oil passing through its territory, as well as its request from Baghdad to approve the long-term energy agreement signed with Erbil. Despite Ankara's difficult opening position on this issue, Baghdad has a strong position with two legal opinions that support its point of view.[/size]
[size=45]But it seems that behind Turkey's difficult position on the oil export crisis, the main goal of Foreign Minister Fidan's visit is to influence Iraqi armed factions to stop their repeated cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militant group in Nineveh Governorate. To achieve this, he met with officials in the Sudanese government and leaders from the PMF as well. It is noteworthy that Fidan pressured Iraq to classify the Alba Kaka group as a terrorist organization. The response from Baghdad is still unknown because it is a complicated matter. Iraq had met some previous demands from Turkey, including improving the security situation around the Makhmour refugee camp, which has provided refuge for Kurds coming from Turkey since the 1990s, and which Ankara considers a place for recruiting BK members.[/size]
[size=45]While Iraq and Turkey may be able to manage and control the economic consequences resulting from the closure of the pipeline, the consequences of this closure will be very difficult for the region, which depends on its exports to cover 80% of its budget. This difficult situation casts a shadow not only on Iraq and neighboring countries, but also on the international community, and will lead to the disruption of businesses in the region and an increase in the unemployment rate.[/size]
[size=45]The report states that, for this reason, reaching a sustainable solution to resume oil exports from Kurdistan oil fields to the global market via Turkey must be via Erbil, Baghdad, and Turkey. Currently, oil companies in the region have reduced their production due to the closure of the pipeline, but if Baghdad and Ankara reach an agreement to reopen the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, the region’s oil companies may increase their production, and this will enable Erbil to transport 400,000 barrels of oil per day to Iraqi Oil Marketing Company SOMO.[/size]
[size=45]Despite recently reaching a temporary solution to the economic crisis that the region is suffering from, with Baghdad providing loans over a period of three months to cover the salaries of the region’s employees, while on the other hand seeking to find a solution to resume exports from the pipeline, Baghdad must include both Erbil and Ankara in its discussions and reach a solution. A final and permanent solution, and without the three concerned parties, a solution cannot be reached.[/size]
[size=45]• About the Gulf Institute for Studies in Washington[/size]
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