The foreign exchange shock...signals for correcting the macroeconomic policy perspective
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[*]The increased flexibility of financial transfer channels used in foreign trade in light of the obsolescence of financial transfer channels, which creates difficulty in managing the supply of the dollar, reducing demand for it and lowering the actual exchange rate. Therefore, the technical limitation of the tools of state authority over dollar flows is one of the real challenges to the financial situation in Iraq.
[*]The policies of the US Federal Bank, and the package of financial, monetary and commercial conditions that the government and the central bank are required to implement in order to reduce the severity of the smuggling or exit of the dollar to countries besieged by economic sanctions.
[*]The decline in the efficiency of fiscal and tax policy tools on foreign trade outlets, which allows two negative movements to occur against the rhythm of adjusting the dollar currency and the exchange rate:
[/list]
[list=5][*]Decreased compliance of some banks with financial and monetary control tools in a way that reduces the ability of monetary policy to control the pace of financial transfer and the sale of the dollar.
[*]Weak outcomes of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies: The failure to implement laws supporting the trade protection policy, including the customs tariff law, the local product protection law, the competition and antitrust law, and the consumer protection law, which are considered among the most important steps for the effectiveness of monetary policy and enabling it to perform its functions towards the goal of stability at the general level. For prices.
[*]The fluctuation of the flow of dollar revenue receivables for oil exports from Iraq's credit account and the occurrence of some bottlenecks that negatively affect the supply of the dollar.
[/list]
[*]Developing the performance of the financial policy arms through tightening the ports of foreign trade movement and examining and organizing import operations with customs controls and regulations that would limit the phenomenon of commodity dumping, including increasing import flexibility towards the goods of the besieged countries, to support the local product, or to divert part of the trade away from those countries. Then, work to reduce the impact of the external variable by increasing response to the Federal Reserve’s policies and the package of financial conditions proposed to the government to restrict dollar smuggling activities and enhance the transparency of international transfer activities.
[*]Maintaining the flow rate of oil revenue receivables within its normal rate from Iraq’s credit account to avoid recurring bottlenecks, by reorganizing the practical perspective of macroeconomic policy and the Federal Reserve’s policy.
[/list]
[size]
Views 71
Added 11/02/2023 - 8:48 [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[/size]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[size=19]In light of the new shock of the rise in the dollar exchange rate from its target level beyond the threshold of 1,600 dinars per dollar in the parallel market at the beginning of the last quarter, and the resulting rise in the general level of prices, the Iraqi dinar began to suffer a significant decline in its real value, causing a decline in income levels. The real value of individuals and economic units , and with increasing expectations that the gap between the actual and target prices will continue to widen, the foreign exchange movement and the repeated shocks it is exposed to are an important input into analyzing the reality of the monetary economy and macroeconomic policy, through the following axes:[/size]
[list="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 1.7;"][*] The duality of the price system and the restriction of public spending in the absence of traditional economic balance, as economic activity suffers from real problems in its internal structure that are reflected in the method of managing the exchange rate and choosing the appropriate system to manage it, and the accompanying outcomes of this duality of economic restrictions that work to unsustain the stability of the exchange rate within the target. This includes the decline in the effectiveness of macro policy in achieving its goals of stabilizing the general level of prices and economic growth.[*]The increased flexibility of financial transfer channels used in foreign trade in light of the obsolescence of financial transfer channels, which creates difficulty in managing the supply of the dollar, reducing demand for it and lowering the actual exchange rate. Therefore, the technical limitation of the tools of state authority over dollar flows is one of the real challenges to the financial situation in Iraq.
[*]The policies of the US Federal Bank, and the package of financial, monetary and commercial conditions that the government and the central bank are required to implement in order to reduce the severity of the smuggling or exit of the dollar to countries besieged by economic sanctions.
[*]The decline in the efficiency of fiscal and tax policy tools on foreign trade outlets, which allows two negative movements to occur against the rhythm of adjusting the dollar currency and the exchange rate:
[/list]
- Dumping policies followed by the blockading countries increase the demand for the dollar.
- The exit of a large percentage of the monetary dollar mass of the aforementioned countries.
[list=5][*]Decreased compliance of some banks with financial and monetary control tools in a way that reduces the ability of monetary policy to control the pace of financial transfer and the sale of the dollar.
[*]Weak outcomes of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies: The failure to implement laws supporting the trade protection policy, including the customs tariff law, the local product protection law, the competition and antitrust law, and the consumer protection law, which are considered among the most important steps for the effectiveness of monetary policy and enabling it to perform its functions towards the goal of stability at the general level. For prices.
[*]The fluctuation of the flow of dollar revenue receivables for oil exports from Iraq's credit account and the occurrence of some bottlenecks that negatively affect the supply of the dollar.
[/list]
[size=19]Therefore, the continued exposure of the market to the fluctuations of foreign exchange shocks shows a decline in the degree of responsiveness of the exchange system to monetary policy tools. If the exchange rate continues to move beyond the 1600 threshold, inflation is expected to have a greater impact on the income cycle, the behaviors of economic units, and the movement of consumption, investment, and saving than it does . This leads to a re-evaluation of their balance sheets according to changes in inflation. This will reflect on all aspects of economic life, as the continued rise in inflation means the dominance of inflationary expectations that fuel other rises, which deepens the problem.[/size]
[size=19]Despite the multiple and continuous measures taken by the Central Bank to restrict the movement of the dollar around the target and raise the exchange system’s response to its monetary tools, the inflation index is still high, which means that the response is still low, due to the fact that the economy needs a combination of several policies in order to calm and stabilize inflation at the target.[/size]
[size=19]Therefore, the monetary authority alone cannot be able to contain the scope of the problem, but rather requires coordination with other relevant policies, to correct the degree in the perspective of macroeconomic policies and adopt a government plan with a short-term path and the other with a medium-term path that limits recurring shocks and achieves the goal of reducing the exchange gap between the actual and target rates. According to the following indications:[/size]
[list="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 1.7;"][*]Reducing the demand gap for the dollar, by creating effective alternatives to achieve a balance between the supply of the dollar and the demand for it, in light of auditing and examining the movement of transfers via documentary credits according to the electronic platform and auditing the movement of the cash dollar.[*]Developing the performance of the financial policy arms through tightening the ports of foreign trade movement and examining and organizing import operations with customs controls and regulations that would limit the phenomenon of commodity dumping, including increasing import flexibility towards the goods of the besieged countries, to support the local product, or to divert part of the trade away from those countries. Then, work to reduce the impact of the external variable by increasing response to the Federal Reserve’s policies and the package of financial conditions proposed to the government to restrict dollar smuggling activities and enhance the transparency of international transfer activities.
[*]Maintaining the flow rate of oil revenue receivables within its normal rate from Iraq’s credit account to avoid recurring bottlenecks, by reorganizing the practical perspective of macroeconomic policy and the Federal Reserve’s policy.
[/list]
[size]
Views 71
Added 11/02/2023 - 8:48 [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
[/size]
Today at 9:31 am by Rocky
» MM&C 5/9/24 The Federation of Chambers of Commerce and the European Union discuss cooperation to fin
Today at 9:27 am by Rocky
» MM&C 5/9/24 Customs, security and economic aspects
Today at 9:24 am by Rocky
» Union of Arab Banks: Iraq's environment encourages investment
Today at 6:57 am by Rocky
» Government advisor: Movement to recover bad debts for the benefit of the Iraqi Trade Bank
Today at 6:55 am by Rocky
» The International Development Bank announces the opening of its new branch in Erbil
Today at 6:52 am by Rocky
» Oil seeks to convert refinery products to “Euro 5”... high quality and environmentally friendly
Today at 6:50 am by Rocky
» Budget delay: the cry for help for paralyzed services and disrupted dreams
Today at 6:47 am by Rocky
» Oil: Completion of projects to improve the quality of petroleum products, and others are under imple
Today at 6:44 am by Rocky
» Chairman of the Securities Commission: 3 million shares, average daily trading volume
Today at 6:43 am by Rocky
» Tamim calls on the countries participating in the meetings of the Arab Administrative Development Or
Today at 6:41 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Endowments: 39 thousand pilgrims, Iraq’s share, and waiving the religious obligation i
Today at 6:39 am by Rocky
» Washington refers to Iraqi legislation that “does not harm” his international presence, and Baghdad
Today at 6:34 am by Rocky
» Deputy: Extending the legislative term depends on sending the budget schedules
Today at 6:30 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Legal: 88 draft laws on the parliamentary shelf
Today at 6:29 am by Rocky
» The head of the movement denies any Iraqi-American negotiations to remove the coalition
Today at 5:23 am by Rocky
» A deputy expects to resolve the issue of electing the Speaker of Parliament next week
Today at 5:22 am by Rocky
» Obtaining the approval of the Minister of Electricity to fill the energy shortage in Dhi Qar
Today at 5:21 am by Rocky
» Economist on the decline in dollar prices: My time and it will not reach its official price
Today at 5:20 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Ministerial Council for National Security approves the 2024-2028 strategy
Today at 5:18 am by Rocky
» Mulla Bakhtiar: Nechirvan Barzani's visit to Iran melted the ice between Erbil and Tehran
Today at 5:17 am by Rocky
» Password "78"... Why did the Sudanese government's interrogations and noisy sessions decline?
Today at 5:16 am by Rocky
» JP Morgan forecasts an increase in the oil capacity of Iraq and other countries in 2025
Today at 5:15 am by Rocky
» Turkish Minister of Transport: The development road will cost $20 billion
Today at 5:13 am by Rocky
» The Supreme Committee for Reconstruction and Investment approves a package of strategic projects
Today at 5:12 am by Rocky
» Work: Preparing a unified national strategy to create job opportunities for youth
Today at 5:11 am by Rocky
» The Prime Minister's financial advisor reduces the risks of the budget deficit
Today at 5:10 am by Rocky
» Sudanese announces the signing of an agreement with Japan to finance small and medium enterprises in
Today at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Government Advisor: The Securities Commission represents the governance base for promoting financial
Today at 5:08 am by Rocky
» A unified national strategy to create job opportunities for youth
Today at 5:07 am by Rocky
» A one-week deadline to decide the position of Speaker of Parliament
Today at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Parliament: We coordinate with the competent regulatory authorities to examine medicines
Today at 5:04 am by Rocky
» The Commission suspends the Kurdistan Parliament's voting procedures
Today at 5:03 am by Rocky
» $100 million to localize the pharmaceutical industry
Today at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Increase in external remittances at the Central Bank
Today at 5:00 am by Rocky
» A government advisor reduces the risks of a budget deficit
Today at 4:54 am by Rocky
» Culture: We seek to invest in the stability of the country to advance the tourism sector
Today at 4:53 am by Rocky
» Integrity announces the results of a questionnaire on bribery in real estate registration department
Today at 4:50 am by Rocky
» Parliament comments on Sudanese plan to restructure the government apparatus: It needs radical refor
Today at 4:49 am by Rocky
» The dollar rises again against the Iraqi dinar in Baghdad
Today at 4:45 am by Rocky
» Politician: The government does not deal transparently with the issue of expelling the Americans
Today at 4:43 am by Rocky
» A government bank participating in an accounting project
Today at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Masrour Barzani: The Kurdistan Regional Government has implemented all its obligations and duties
Today at 4:41 am by Rocky
» French Consul: France strengthens relations with the Kurdistan Region
Today at 4:39 am by Rocky
» Studies Center: Sudanese faces the challenges of maintaining sustainable relations with the United S
Today at 4:38 am by Rocky
» “The absence of democracy is not possible.” The federal government remains silent on the postponemen
Today at 4:37 am by Rocky
» Taqadum Party: The absence of the Speaker of Parliament disrupted the general amnesty law
Today at 4:36 am by Rocky
» The file of oil export through Turkish territory is under the control of politicians
Today at 4:33 am by Rocky
» For the sake of the position of president and the budget schedules... there is a preference for exte
Today at 4:32 am by Rocky
» “If you bring the equipment, let’s begin.” Revealing the secrets of Erdogan’s visit to Iraq and the
Today at 4:31 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary moves to approve the Human Organ and Tissue Bank Law
Today at 4:29 am by Rocky
» Electricity embarks on an 11-axis plan to develop the energy sector
Today at 4:27 am by Rocky
» Al-Asadi announces work on legislating a law on occupational health and safety
Today at 4:26 am by Rocky
» Al-Rasheed: Increasing the amount of loans for restoration and maintenance of buildings to 50 millio
Today at 4:25 am by Rocky
» Under the chairmanship of Al-Sudani, Reconstruction and Investment agree on projects related to elec
Today at 4:24 am by Rocky
» Baghdad and Tehran.. New discussions regarding railway connectivity to transport visitors between th
Today at 4:23 am by Rocky
» Immigration: Our plan focuses on the voluntary return of displaced persons and rejecting their house
Today at 4:22 am by Rocky
» An Iraqi trade delegation in Iran to facilitate the export of agricultural crops to Iraq
Today at 4:21 am by Rocky
» Sudanese launches work on the Union Mills Project in Babil Governorate
Today at 4:19 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary demands to resolve the selection of the Speaker of Parliament next week: So far, there
Today at 4:18 am by Rocky
» Sudanese inaugurates a sugar production factory expansion project and three other factories
Today at 4:17 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani confirms the unlimited support from the government to develop the success story in the pri
Today at 4:16 am by Rocky
» From Babylon... Al-Sudani announces the referral of the large Hilla sewerage project, phase two, to
Today at 4:15 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The factories that opened in Babylon provide more than 4,000 job opportunities
Today at 4:14 am by Rocky
» A representative calls for the payment of lucrative compensation to farmers after the flooding of wh
Today at 4:13 am by Rocky
» Government Advisor: The Securities Commission represents the governance base for promoting financial
Today at 4:12 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 5/7/24 Iraq Dinar- IQD Update - Regional Trade - A Progession of Reforms - A Global Bac
Yesterday at 6:53 am by Rocky
» MM&C The Iraqi Private Banks Association told NEWS: These are the results of the Prime Minister’s me
Yesterday at 6:52 am by Rocky
» After a break of more than 9 years.. the resumption of a government trade meeting between Iraq and A
Yesterday at 6:51 am by Rocky
» Deputy: The general amnesty law will be passed
Yesterday at 6:46 am by Rocky
» A change in the fuel smuggling map... “control” over the central ports and “laxity” in the north
Yesterday at 6:43 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani takes three urgent decisions to block the wheat mafias in Iraq
Yesterday at 6:41 am by Rocky
» Electricity embarks on an 11-axis plan to develop the energy sector
Yesterday at 6:39 am by Rocky
» “Thug and smuggler.” A female representative talks about a crocodile in Parliament blackmailing exec
Yesterday at 6:37 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani told the US State Department: Iraq is keen to strengthen its democratic system
Yesterday at 6:36 am by Rocky
» The Central Bank sells more than $275 million at auction today
Yesterday at 6:34 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Commerce stresses the observance of the Iraqi standard in the supply of goods
Yesterday at 6:33 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Trade Bank announces its participation in the process of localizing the salaries of Kurdis
Yesterday at 6:32 am by Rocky
» Iraq adopts an advanced system to combat money laundering and terrorist financing
Yesterday at 5:25 am by Rocky
» Increase in Euphrates River levels due to Turkish water releases
Yesterday at 5:22 am by Rocky
» Demands the need to legislate the capital law
Yesterday at 5:21 am by Rocky
» Parliament decided to extend the legislative term by one month
Yesterday at 5:20 am by Rocky
» A bank participating in the process of localizing the salaries of employees in the region
Yesterday at 5:18 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary request to the Ministry of Finance regarding defense mobilization dues/document
Yesterday at 5:17 am by Rocky
» Dollar prices in Baghdad and Kurdistan today
Yesterday at 5:16 am by Rocky
» Al-Rasheed decides to increase the ceiling for granting “construction” loans to 75 million dinars
Yesterday at 5:14 am by Rocky
» A government plan to expand the construction of water harvesting dams
Yesterday at 5:12 am by Rocky
» Frozen or banned? An Iranian official reveals the fate of Tehran’s money in Baghdad
Yesterday at 5:11 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Trade Bank participates in the process of localizing the salaries of Kurdistan Region empl
Yesterday at 5:10 am by Rocky
» Finance confirms the Iraqi government's desire to benefit from the expertise of French companies
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» After targeting its branch in Kurdistan... Dana Gas announces a decrease in its profits to $38 milli
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» A parliamentary understanding to extend the legislative term to approve the 2024 budget schedules
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» Stopping the Commission’s procedures regarding the region’s elections
Yesterday at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Foreign oil companies violate Iraqi laws
Yesterday at 5:05 am by Rocky
» The position of Speaker of Parliament depends on the political agreement
Yesterday at 5:04 am by Rocky
» The Ministry of Finance decides to send the April salary to the Kurdistan region
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» It did not reach the Council.. Parliament determines the mechanisms for dealing with the 2024 budget
Yesterday at 5:01 am by Rocky
» 88 projects awaiting resolution.. What will happen to the stalled laws in Parliament? - Urgent
Yesterday at 5:00 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani receives the US Undersecretary of State
Yesterday at 4:59 am by Rocky